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Budget 2015: What to expect from George Osborne's last budget of the coalition

George Osborne will say the UK faces a "critical choice" at the election when he delivers his Budget today – but what do we know so far?

Depending on the election result in May, today could be Osborne's final Budget. Unsurprisingly, Twitter is clear of any patronising adverts highlighting the changes to beer and bingo taxes - the things working people enjoy, of course. But the newspapers this morning are swelling with leaks, announcements and juicy rumours. Here's a round up, for anyone (including us) too excited to wait:

Inheritance tax

In plans leaked to the Guardian, Osborne has drawn up blueprints that would allow parents to pass a main property worth up to £1m to their children without paying inheritance tax. This would reduce the inheritance tax bill on properties worth up to £2m by £140,000 with the Treasury concluding that the scheme would “most likely benefit high income and wealthier households.” Quelle surprise.

Power-generating lagoon

Helen Lewis spotted the first shameless reannouncement of today’s Budget: the world’s largest power-generating lagoon, in South Wales. Negotiations will be started on funding a £1bn initiative to produce electricity from turbines in Swansea Bay.

Personal Tax Allowance

Raising the personal allowance to £11,000 – giving 27m people a £200 tax cut. But as Tim Wigmore has reported, raising the tax allowance has already reached its limits for helping the poorest families. Once the personal allowance had reached £10,500, three million people had been taken out of income tax altogether.

Death of the tax return

The Telegraph has splashed this morning on the “death of the annual tax return”. It is expected that Osborne will use the Budget to announce a cut in unnecessary HMRC “red tape” Tax returns, the paper reports, “have been long considered an unnecessary burden for millions of people”.

A new shiny coin

This “long-term economic plan” is certainly under way: a new shiny 12-sided (!) pound coin will be unveiled. Featuring the “four symbols” of the UK: a rose, leek, thistle and shamrock. Sorry? The Chancellor announced the plans at the Budget in 2014 to replace the £1 coin because it has been increasingly vulnerable to counterfeit.
 

Photo: Twitter

Postgraduate Loans

Loans of up to £25,000 for PhD students from disadvantaged backgrounds in an attempt to convince more people to take up postgraduate research.

Savings Tax

The Independent believe they’ve found the biggest “rabbit” in today’s Budget: they say the Chancellor will abolish tax on income from savings for millions in a move to woo pensioners and “hard-working” people. In last year's Budget, Osborne announced that that 10 per cent tax on saving for people on low incomes will be abolished next month. This change will help an estimated 1.5m savers, many of them pensioners, according to the Indy.

Welfare

According to reports in the Daily Mail, the Chancellor will be announcing a welfare cap as he sets out more than £12bn in benefit cuts... and guess who will be affected the most? Read on... 

Young people

At the bottom of the list for a reason. No “goodies” or happy “rabbits” for the under-25s it seems. In fact, they are set to lose the right to housing and unemployment benefits if they refuse offers of work, training or education. It seems the controversial Tory grandee, Lord Tebbitt, whose ambition it is to make young unemployed people pull up ragwort for benefits, might be gleeful at the Budget today. 

Ashley Cowburn writes about politics and is the winner of the Anthony Howard Award 2014. He tweets @ashcowburn

 

 

Nigel Farage and Paul Nuttall. Photo: Getty
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Nigel Farage and Douglas Carswell don’t need to stand again as MPs – they’ve already won

I just loathe these people. I want to see them humiliated. 

We’re a week in to the campaign, and it’s clear that the 2017 election is going to be hell on toast. The polls show the Tories beating Labour in Scotland (for the first time in a generation) and Wales (for the first time in a century). The bookies put the chances of a Labour majority at around 20/1, odds that are striking mainly because they contain just one zero.

The only element of suspense in this election is whether Theresa May will win a big enough majority to keep Labour out of power for a decade, or one big enough to keep it out for an entire generation. In sum: if you’re on the left, this election will be awful.

But there was one bright spot, a deep well of Schadenfreude that I thought might get us through: the campaign would provide plentiful opportunities to watch the people who got us into this mess be humiliatingly rejected by the electorate yet again.

After all, Ukip’s polling numbers have halved since last summer and the party has fallen back into fourth place, behind the pro-European Lib Dems. Nigel Farage has failed to become an MP seven times. It thus seemed inevitable both that Farage would stand, and that he would lose. Again.

If the vexingly popular Farage has never made it to parliament, the odds that his replacement as Ukip leader, Paul Nuttall (the Walter Mitty of Bootle), would manage it seemed minimal. Ukip may have won last year’s referendum; that did not mean its leaders wouldn’t still lose elections, preferably in the most embarrassing way possible.

The true highlight of the election, though, promised to be Clacton. The Essex seaside town is the only constituency ever to have returned a Ukip candidate at a general election, opting to let the Tory defector Douglas Carswell stay on in 2015. But Carswell’s libertarian belief that Brexit was definitely not about immigration always seemed an odd fit with Ukip, and he left the party in March. In the upcoming election, he seemed certain to face a challenge from the party’s immigration-obsessed donor Arron Banks.

The Clacton election, in other words, was expected to serve as a pleasing metaphor for Ukip’s descent back into irrelevance. The libertarians and nativists would rip chunks out of each other for a few weeks while the rest of us sniggered, before both inevitably lost the seat to a safe pair of Tory hands. This election will be awful, but Clacton was going to be brilliant.

But no: 2017 deprives us of even that pleasure. Carswell has neatly sidestepped the possibility of highlighting his complete lack of personal support by standing down, with the result that he can tell himself he is quitting undefeated.

Carswell has always stood apart from Ukip but on this matter, at least, the party has rushed to follow his lead. Arron Banks spent a few days claiming that he would be running in Clacton. Then he visited the town and promptly changed his mind. At a press conference on 24 April, Paul Nuttall was asked whether he planned to stand for a seat in Westminster. Rather than answering, he locked himself in a room, presumably in the hope that the journalists outside would go away. Really.

As for Farage, he seems finally to have shaken his addiction to losing elections and decided not to stand at all. “It would be a very easy win,” he wrote in the Daily Tele­graph, “and for me a personal vindication to get into the House of Commons after all these years of standing in elections.” He was like an American teenager assuring his mates that his definitely real Canadian girlfriend goes to another school.

Why does all of this bother me? I don’t want these people anywhere near Westminster, and if they insisted on standing for a seat there would be at least the chance that, in these febrile times, one of them might actually win. So why am I annoyed that they aren’t even bothering?

Partly I’m infuriated by the cowardice on show. They have wrecked my country, completely and irrevocably, and then they’ve just legged it. It’s like a version of Knock Down Ginger, except instead of ringing the doorbell they’ve set fire to the house.

Partly, too, my frustration comes from my suspicion that it doesn’t matter whether Ukip fields a single candidate in this election. Theresa May’s Tories have already assimilated the key tenets of Farageism. That Nigel Farage no longer feels the need to claw his way into parliament merely highlights that he no longer needs to.

Then there’s the fury generated by my lingering sense that these men have managed to accrue a great deal of power without the slightest hint of accountability. In the south London seat of Vauxhall, one of the most pro-Remain constituencies in one of the most pro-Remain cities in the UK, the Labour Leave campaigner Kate Hoey is expected to face a strong challenge from the Liberal Democrats. Even Labour members are talking about voting tactically to get their hated MP out.

It remains to be seen whether that campaign succeeds but there is at least an opportunity for angry, pro-European lefties to register their discontent with Hoey. By contrast, Farage and his henchmen have managed to rewrite British politics to a degree that no one has achieved in decades, yet there is no way for those who don’t approve to make clear that they don’t like it.

Mostly, though, my frustration is simpler than that. I just loathe these people. I want to see them humiliated. I want to see them stumble from gaffe to gaffe for six weeks before coming fourth – but now we will be deprived of that. Faced with losing, the biggest names in Ukip have decided that they no longer want to play. And so they get to win again. They always bloody win. 

Jonn Elledge edits the New Statesman's sister site CityMetric, and writes for the NS about subjects including politics, history and Daniel Hannan. You can find him on Twitter or Facebook.

This article first appeared in the 27 April 2017 issue of the New Statesman, Cool Britannia 20 Years On

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