The sceptic movement has more going on underneath the surface, too. (Photo: Getty)
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Britain's climate sceptics' dishonest tactics need to stop

Climate sceptics are turning to increasingly tricky ruses to hide their motives.

An article in last week's Mail on Sunday has again exposed the dishonest tactics used by climate change ‘sceptics’ to try to stop the UK from cutting its greenhouse gas emissions.

The polemic was written by Professor Michael Kelly, an electronic engineer at the University of Cambridge who used to be Chief Scientific Advisor at the Department for Communities and Local Government.

Professor Kelly is also a Fellow of the Royal Society, Britain’s national academy of science whose distinguished members have included Isaac Newton, Charles Darwin and Stephen Hawking.

It is notable that Professor Kelly’s newspaper article was primarily a vituperative attack on the Society for daring to highlight the scientific evidence for climate change.

But it was actually part of a carefully planned media blitz by the Global Warming Policy Foundation, which was set up by Lord Lawson to lobby against Government policies that promote alternatives to fossil fuels.

Professor Kelly publicised the Foundation’s new pamphlet, published on Sunday, which criticises a short guide to climate science produced by the Royal Society last December.

The attack is part of a co-ordinated ongoing war by the Foundation against mainstream scientific organisations, such as the Royal Society and the Met Office, which are documenting how the UK and the rest of the world are being affected by rising greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere.

The Foundation hopes to create confusion about the science to undermine the case for climate change policies, in a clear echo of tactics used by tobacco companies to delay regulation of smoking.

But the Charity Commission ruled last year that the Foundation had breached its guidelines because it pushes only a ‘sceptic’ line on the science of climate change, including through the insertion of fake headlines to ‘spin’ newspaper articles that it reproduces on its website.

As a result, the Foundation set up a lobbying arm, the Global Warming Policy Forum, to circumvent charity regulations.

However, the Foundation continues to disseminate inaccurate and misleading information about climate change through campaign pamphlets and newspaper articles.

Professor Kelly’s article reproduced many of the false claims contained in the new pamphlet, including the suggestion that the Royal Society’s statements about trends towards increasing extreme weather “simply do not match real-world facts”.

In fact, the most recent assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the world’s most authoritative source of information about the causes and consequences of global warming, concluded that “changes in many extreme weather and climate events have been observed since about 1950”, with a likely increase heatwaves in large parts of Europe, Asia and Australia, and more heavy rainfall in North America and Europe.

The denial of any change in extreme weather events is one of the main ‘talking points’ for climate change ‘sceptics’ because they know that policy-makers and the public are very concerned about such impacts.

But Professor Kelly also cites the fact that “since 1998 there has been no statistically significant rise in global temperature”. In fact, the linear trend in global annual surface temperature since 1998 has been a rise of 0.05 centigrade degrees per decade, and while this is lower than the long-term rate of warming, climate scientists have concluded that this slowdown is only temporary.

Yet Professor Kelly ignores these facts. One could be charitable, and assume that he simply does not understand climate science. After all, while he is an eminent engineer, he has never published any academic papers on climate change.

However, Professor Kelly is one of Lord Lawson’s most loyal soldiers. In 2010, he helped to organise a letter by 43 Fellows of the Royal Society to its President, Sir Paul Nurse, complaining about its public statements on climate change.

But at least one of the signatories, Lord Hunt of Chesterton, thought the letter was pointing out that the Royal Society should be speaking out more strongly about the risks of climate change.

Professor Kelly’s political motivation for doing Lord Lawson’s bidding at the expense of the Royal Society is obvious from the newspaper article.

He complains about the Climate Change Act and wind farms, blaming them for having “contributed to electricity prices increasing by twice the level of inflation over the last decade”.

But again, Professor Kelly is wrong about the evidence. Increases in the price of natural gas have been the main driver of electricity prices over the past 10 years, as Ofgem has highlighted, and support for renewables, through the Renewables Obligation and Feed-in Tariffs, accounts for only £50, or 3.7%, of an annual dual fuel bill of £1344.

The truth is that lobbying by UK climate change ‘sceptics’, even those with an apparently technical background, is motivated by politics.

The public should not be fooled by their efforts to undermine the science because these are simply the same tactics that are being used by similar groups in the United States, and which have been revealed by the shocking new film ‘Merchants of Doubt’.

Bob Ward is policy and communications director at the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at London School of Economics and Political Science.

Bob Ward is policy and communications director of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at London School of Economics and Political Science.

Photo: Getty
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No, John McDonnell, people earning over £42,000 have not been "hit hard" by the Conservatives

The shadow chancellor's decision to support this tax cut is as disappointing as it is innumerate. 

John McDonnell has backed Conservative plans to raise the point at which you start paying the 40p rate (that’s 40p of every pound earned after you hit the threshold) to above £45,000 by April 2017 (part of the Conservative manifesto pledge to raise the 40p rate so that it only covers people earning above £50,000 by 2020).

Speaking to the BBC, the shadow chancellor said that those affected “need a tax giveaway at the moment because the mismanagement of the economy by the Conservatives is hitting them hard”.

Is he right? Well, let’s crunch some numbers. Let’s say I earn £42,000, my partner doesn’t work and we have two children. That puts our household in the upper 30 per cent of all British earners, and, thanks to changes to tax and benefits, we are 1.6 per cent worse off than an equivalent household in 2010. Have we been “hit hard”? Well, no, actually, in point of fact, we have been the least affected of any household with children of the coalition.

The pattern holds for every type of household that will feel the benefit of the 40p rate hike. Those with children have seen smaller decreases (1.0-2.3 per cent) in their living standards that those in the bottom three-quarters of the income distribution. The beneficiaries of this change without children, excluding pensioners, who have done well out of Conservative-led governments but are unaffected by this change, have actually seen increases in their tax-home incomes already under David Cameron. There is no case that they need a bigger one under Theresa May.

But, nonetheless, they’re getting one, and it’s the biggest bung to higher earners since Margaret Thatcher was in office.  For context: a single parent family earning £42,000 is in the top 15 per cent of earners. A family in which one person is earning above £42,000 and the other is working minimum wage for 16 hours to look after their two children is in the top 13 per cent. A single person earning £42,000 is in the top 6 per cent of earners.  

That’s before you get into the big winners from this policy, because higher earners tend to marry other higher earners. A couple with one person earning £45,000 and the other earning £35,000 is in the top three per cent of earners. A couple in which both are earning £45,000 with one child are in the top four per cent.  (Childless couples earning above average income are, incidentally, the only working age demographic to do better since 2010 than under New Labour.)

And these are not cheap tax cuts, either. To meet the Conservative proposal to raise the 40p rate to £50,000 by 2020 will cost £9bn over the course of the parliament, and giving a tax cut to “hard-pressed” earners on £42,000 will cost around £1.7bn.

The political argument for giving up on taxing this group is fairly weak, too. Hostilty to tax rises among swing voters extends all the way up to the super-rich, so Labour’s commitment to the top rate of tax has already hurt them among voters. To win support even for that measure, the party is going to have to persuade voters of the merits of tax-and-spend – it makes no sense to eschew the revenue from people in the top five per cent of earners while still taking the political pian.

Which isn’t to say that people earning above £42,000 should be tarred and feathered, but it is to say that any claim that this group has been “hit hard” by the government or that they should be the target for further tax relief, rather than clawing back some of the losses to the Exchequer of the threshold raise and the planned hike in the higher rate to £50,000, should be given extremely short shrift. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to British politics.