Probably not, as it happens. (Image: Flickr/Liberal Democrats)
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About that Liberal Democrat "private polling"...

The Liberal Democrats made a splash with their private polling. But the published results indicate that they may be grasping at straws.

The Liberal Democrats made a splash recently when they briefed a series of favourable private polls showing the party doing better than the national figures would suggest. Our sister site, May2015, went so far as to declare that the party will win "at least" 30 seats on the back of the figures. Now they've released one of the polls, showing the party just a point behind in Hornsey & Wood Green, a seat that, as I've said before, Labour expect to win even if they fall short badly across the country.

The numbers have already been greeted with scepticism by others in the polling community. The survey is weighted back to 2010 recalled voting, rather than to the midterm of the parliament. According to James Morris, Labour's pollster, this would transform Labour's narrow lead in the constituency to a seven-point one. Laurence Janta-Lipinski of YouGov, meanwhile, warns that the poll's structure - which asks respondents whether they approve or disapprove of the local candidates before asking the final question - many distort the outcome.

It may be, of course, that the Liberal Democrats' private pollsters are just smarter than everyone else's pollsters. So let's take the number at face value for a moment. Lynne Featherstone has been the Liberal candidate in the seat since 1997. She's an active, hard-working, high profile, and has held that she's held for a decade, the last time by more than 6,500 votes. Compare that to say, Berwick-upon-Tweed, where the longstanding Liberal MP, Alan Beith, is retiring, and his would-be successor, Julie Pörksen, inherits a majority of just 2,690. Or Wells, where the party has the benefit of incumbency but Tessa Munt has a majority of only 800.

Put bluntly: even if this "secret poll" is taken at face value, if the Liberal Democrats are a point behind Labour in Hornsey & Wood Green, what kind of a bloodbath are they facing elsewhere?

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to British politics.

Ukip's Nigel Farage and Paul Nuttall. Photo: Getty
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Is the general election 2017 the end of Ukip?

Ukip led the way to Brexit, but now the party is on less than 10 per cent in the polls. 

Ukip could be finished. Ukip has only ever had two MPs, but it held an outside influence on politics: without it, we’d probably never have had the EU referendum. But Brexit has turned Ukip into a single-issue party without an issue. Ukip’s sole remaining MP, Douglas Carswell, left the party in March 2017, and told Sky News’ Adam Boulton that there was “no point” to the party anymore. 

Not everyone in Ukip has given up, though: Nigel Farage told Peston on Sunday that Ukip “will survive”, and current leader Paul Nuttall will be contesting a seat this year. But Ukip is standing in fewer constituencies than last time thanks to a shortage of both money and people. Who benefits if Ukip is finished? It’s likely to be the Tories. 

Is Ukip finished? 

What are Ukip's poll ratings?

Ukip’s poll ratings peaked in June 2016 at 16 per cent. Since the leave campaign’s success, that has steadily declined so that Ukip is going into the 2017 general election on 4 per cent, according to the latest polls. If the polls can be trusted, that’s a serious collapse.

Can Ukip get anymore MPs?

In the 2015 general election Ukip contested nearly every seat and got 13 per cent of the vote, making it the third biggest party (although is only returned one MP). Now Ukip is reportedly struggling to find candidates and could stand in as few as 100 seats. Ukip leader Paul Nuttall will stand in Boston and Skegness, but both ex-leader Nigel Farage and donor Arron Banks have ruled themselves out of running this time.

How many members does Ukip have?

Ukip’s membership declined from 45,994 at the 2015 general election to 39,000 in 2016. That’s a worrying sign for any political party, which relies on grassroots memberships to put in the campaigning legwork.

What does Ukip's decline mean for Labour and the Conservatives? 

The rise of Ukip took votes from both the Conservatives and Labour, with a nationalist message that appealed to disaffected voters from both right and left. But the decline of Ukip only seems to be helping the Conservatives. Stephen Bush has written about how in Wales voting Ukip seems to have been a gateway drug for traditional Labour voters who are now backing the mainstream right; so the voters Ukip took from the Conservatives are reverting to the Conservatives, and the ones they took from Labour are transferring to the Conservatives too.

Ukip might be finished as an electoral force, but its influence on the rest of British politics will be felt for many years yet. 

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