The SNP are now forecast to win at least 39 seats in May. Photo: May2015.com
Show Hide image

Five election forecasts concur: Labour & Tories to fall at least 40 seats short of a majority

Three new forecasts published today reiterate how similar predictions are for this election – and that a hung parliament appears to be an inevitability.

Track all the latest election polls and predictions on our election site: May2015.com.

The Guardian has joined the polling and prediction business. Since September May2015 has been tracking the polls and making election predictions. Earlier this year we started to track other models, and the Guardian have now been added to our page of forecasters.

May2015 now tracks five forecasts – our own model, a pair of academic ones (Election Forecast and Elections Etc), the Guardian’s, and the bookies’ (Ladbrokes).

They are remarkably similar. The five forecasts range from 270 to 285 seats for the Tories, and 271 to 283 seats for Labour. An average of the five models gives 278.1 seats for the former and 275.3 for the latter.

May2015’s 270-seat prediction is the most pessimistic for the Tories. Election Forecast are behind the more favourable 285-seat prediction. We also offer the lowest estimate for Labour (271), along with the Guardian. Elections Etc, in a new forecast out today, suggest the party will win as many as 283.

Will the SNP win more than 50 seats?

Our forecasts are the lowest for both main parties because our model is so favourable to the SNP. That’s because we used Lord Ashcroft’s 16 Scottish seat polls to predict the whole of Scotland (his polls account for 26 per cent of Scotland’s seats).

We feel comfortable doing so because the national vote share his polls implied – SNP 48 per cent, Labour 23 per cent – are largely in-line with more than a dozen Scotland-wide polls released since the referendum. As new Scottish seat polls are released, our forecast may change (Ashcroft polled seats that were more likely to vote “Yes” – and therefore SNP – in the Scottish referendum).

Our forecasts are the lowest for both main parties because our model is so favourable to the SNP.

The Guardian are the only other forecaster predicting more than 50 seats for the SNP (51). The way we make our predictions are very similar – we both rely on a mixture of national and local polls.

The two academic models and the bookies offer less sensational predictions for the SNP. But they are now far more nationalist than they have been. All three now predict the SNP will win around 40 seats. Two months ago the bookies suggested the SNP would only win 25. (An average of the five forecasters gives a prediction of 44.9 seats.)

Can the Lib Dems hold onto more than half of their seats?

We recently launched the New Statesman’s Political Index, which suggested the Lib Dems could win at least 30 seats in May. We revealed how private polling is offering hope to the coalition’s minor party.

We will shortly be launching the Index as a standalone prediction (and ranking every seat in the UK), but none of the five forecasts we currently track suggest the Lib Dems will do so well.

These models are all based on public polling, which doesn’t take into account how well the Lib Dems say they are doing in seats like St Austell & Newquay, Cardiff Central, Solihull, Bermondsey, Leeds North West and St Ives.

Until these polls are made public, or Lord Ashcroft returns to these seats and confirms the Lib Dems are doing well (or national polls improve for the party), Lib Dem seat predictions will remain below 30. An average of the five forecasters suggests they will win 25.9 (that’s down from 57 in 2010).

All roads lead to a very hung parliament

The most important part of these predictions are their forecasts for Labour and the Tories. And they all agree: both parties will fall at least 40 seats short of a majority.

The Guardian has some whizzy graphics that detail how many seats various coalition or confidence & supply deals could have.

The key number is 326. If a group of parties can get to 326 they will have a majority in the Commons (there are 650 seats). But the magic number is really 323; the Speaker is apolitical and Sinn Fein’s five MPs don’t take their seats. With that in mind, here’s a rundown of how many seats various groupings could have:

  • Labour (275.3) + SNP (44.9) = 320 (3 seats short; figures rounded)
  • Tory (278.1) + Lib Dem (25.9) + Ukip (3.3) + DUP (8) = 315 (8 seats short)
  • Tory (278.1) + Lib Dem (25.9) = 304 (19 seats short)
  • Labour (275.3) + Lib Dem (25.9) + Green (1) = 302 (21 seats short)

Who will form the next government?

If either party forms a coalition just with the Lib Dems, they will be around 20 seats short of a majority.

The only two feasible majority scenarios are a Labour-SNP deal, or a Tory-Lib Dem deal propped up by Ukip and Northern Ireland’s DUP.

If either party forms a coalition just with the Lib Dems, they will be 20 seats short.

There are reasons to doubt both outcomes. The SNP and Labour are currently fighting a fierce battle in Scotland – are they going to easily come together after the SNP wins dozens of Labour’s Scottish seats?

The SNP’s Westminster leader also recently told May2015 he is not spending any time preparing for a coalition; any Lab-SNP deal would only be a confidence & supply deal.

A Tory-led, four-party coalition is also hard to envisage. A Tory-Lib Dem deal, with occasional Ukip and DUP support, is easier to imagine, but accommodating four parties – as well as Tory backbenchers, the most rebellious MPs in the House – will be extremely complicated.

NB The Financial Times have started to publish a prediction by Populus, the pollster, and Hanover, the PR firm. It is not yet updated regularly enough for us to track, but its latest predictions are very much in line with those we do track.

They are predicting 277 seats for Labour, 272 for the Tories and 44 for the SNP. We have stopped tracking Electoral Calculus’ model because it is too irregularly updated.

Explore May2015.com.

May2015 is the New Statesman's new elections site. Explore it for data, interviews and ideas on the general election.

Getty
Show Hide image

Theresa May’s Brexit speech is Angela Merkel’s victory – here’s why

The Germans coined the word “merkeln to describe their Chancellor’s approach to negotiations. 

It is a measure of Britain’s weak position that Theresa May accepts Angela Merkel’s ultimatum even before the Brexit negotiations have formally started

The British Prime Minister blinked first when she presented her plan for Brexit Tuesday morning. After months of repeating the tautological mantra that “Brexit means Brexit”, she finally specified her position when she essentially proposed that Britain should leave the internal market for goods, services and people, which had been so championed by Margaret Thatcher in the 1980s. 

By accepting that the “UK will be outside” and that there can be “no half-way house”, Theresa May has essentially caved in before the negotiations have begun.

At her meeting with May in July last year, the German Chancellor stated her ultimatum that there could be no “Rosinenpickerei” – the German equivalent of cherry picking. Merkel stated that Britain was not free to choose. That is still her position.

Back then, May was still battling for access to the internal market. It is a measure of how much her position has weakened that the Prime Minister has been forced to accept that Britain will have to leave the single market.

For those who have followed Merkel in her eleven years as German Kanzlerin there is sense of déjà vu about all this.  In negotiations over the Greek debt in 2011 and in 2015, as well as in her negotiations with German banks, in the wake of the global clash in 2008, Merkel played a waiting game; she let others reveal their hands first. The Germans even coined the word "merkeln", to describe the Chancellor’s favoured approach to negotiations.

Unlike other politicians, Frau Merkel is known for her careful analysis, behind-the-scene diplomacy and her determination to pursue German interests. All these are evident in the Brexit negotiations even before they have started.

Much has been made of US President-Elect Donald Trump’s offer to do a trade deal with Britain “very quickly” (as well as bad-mouthing Merkel). In the greater scheme of things, such a deal – should it come – will amount to very little. The UK’s exports to the EU were valued at £223.3bn in 2015 – roughly five times as much as our exports to the United States. 

But more importantly, Britain’s main export is services. It constitutes 79 per cent of the economy, according to the Office of National Statistics. Without access to the single market for services, and without free movement of skilled workers, the financial sector will have a strong incentive to move to the European mainland.

This is Germany’s gain. There is a general consensus that many banks are ready to move if Britain quits the single market, and Frankfurt is an obvious destination.

In an election year, this is welcome news for Merkel. That the British Prime Minister voluntarily gives up the access to the internal market is a boon for the German Chancellor and solves several of her problems. 

May’s acceptance that Britain will not be in the single market shows that no country is able to secure a better deal outside the EU. This will deter other countries from following the UK’s example. 

Moreover, securing a deal that will make Frankfurt the financial centre in Europe will give Merkel a political boost, and will take focus away from other issues such as immigration.

Despite the rise of the far-right Alternative für Deutschland party, the largely proportional electoral system in Germany will all but guarantee that the current coalition government continues after the elections to the Bundestag in September.

Before the referendum in June last year, Brexiteers published a poster with the mildly xenophobic message "Halt ze German advance". By essentially caving in to Merkel’s demands before these have been expressly stated, Mrs May will strengthen Germany at Britain’s expense. 

Perhaps, the German word schadenfreude comes to mind?

Matthew Qvortrup is author of the book Angela Merkel: Europe’s Most Influential Leader published by Duckworth, and professor of applied political science at Coventry University.