The Swiss village of Davos, which hosts the annual summit. Photo: Getty
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The global elite in Davos must give the world a pay rise

Speaking for the 99 per cent at the World Economic Forum.

George Osborne may be feeling quite pleased with himself when he gets up to address the World Economic Forum in Davos this week. The self-styled poster boy of post-crash recovery will no doubt boast of Britain's return to growth and rising employment. But one uncomfortable fact that he and other politicians here are unlikely to mention is the continuing slide in the share of global wealth going on wages.

I’m in Davos too, as part of a small delegation of trade union leaders from around the world. We may be in a minority here among the heads of state and titans of finance, but we speak for the majority of the world – the 99 per cent. And just as the TUC has argued that Britain needs a pay rise, we are arguing in Davos that the world needs a pay rise too.

The share of national income going to wages across industrialized countries has fallen from over 66 per cent in the early Eighties to around 61 per cent, according to the OECD. Globally, the decline is even sharper – from 62.5 per cent in 1980 to 54 per cent in 2010, according to the United Nations. What’s more, the falling share is distributed increasingly unequally. Rising pay inequalities at the same time as a falling wage share mean even less of the rewards of growth go to the working people who create them.

The loss for most people’s wages means a greater share globally is going to those who are already the wealthiest. It means the super richer are getting stupendously richer and the rest of us are being left behind. And it means that politicians who keep telling us they want to ‘reward hard work’ have been speaking hollow words.

The World Economic Forum itself has at least finally put deepening income inequality at the top of its list of global concerns. It says that poverty, environmental degradation, persistent unemployment, political instability, violence and conflict are all related to deepening income inequality. But are the members of the global elite gathered in their exclusive mountain retreat ready to take the action needed to reverse this trend?

It means rejecting a broken economic system that has made them very rich, but brought the rest of the world an avalanche of social problems and restricted economic growth. The evidence that inequality within countries is bad for growth has been presented in recent reports from both the IMF and the OECD.

The world economy is wage led, and if the wages for the 99 per cent increase then their greater spending power boosts growth. Giving more and more to the top one per cent does not have the same impact – except perhaps on the luxury yacht market or future industries like private space flights.

The collapse of oil prices, and the resulting low inflation, will no doubt give the economy an immediate boost at a convenient time for George Osborne. But while an adrenaline shot can get a sick patient out of bed for a while, it’s no cure.

Cheap oil is a sign of a weakening global economy, reflected in the decision this week by the IMF to downgrade its growth forecasts for the UK and global economies. Global demand is growing weak, and there’s a very real risk that low inflation is the calm before the storm.

The lasting cure that Britain and the world need is a new global business model that works for us all. And at the heart of it must be a return to stronger wage growth. This would create a sustained increase in demand. It would help create the conditions in which new businesses can be created and prosper. And it would reverse the deepening inequality that is blighting so many lives.

This can only be achieved if workers have a stronger voice. Collective bargaining must be extended, and we need stronger employment rights to reverse the trend of casualisation. A solid and secure economy will never be built on the shaky foundations of zero-hours contracts, agency workers, job insecurity, and a global race to the bottom for pay and conditions.

Corporations need to start paying the taxes they owe in the countries where they make their vast profits – and governments need to make them. This will help ensure countries have the revenue needed to invest in long-term growth.

And a financial transactions tax – now backed by the Democrats in the USA as well as eleven EU member states – would crack down on financial speculation. That could help shift the focus of financial institutions back to long-term investment in high-skilled and well-paid job creation in real industries, instead of casino capitalism.

Frances O’Grady is TUC General Secretary

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Want to send a positive Brexit message to Europe? Back Arsene Wenger for England manager

Boris Johnson could make a gesture of goodwill. 

It is hard not to feel some sympathy for Sam Allardyce, who coveted the England job for so many years, before losing it after playing just a single match. Yet Allardyce has only himself to blame and the Football Association were right to move quickly to end his tenure.

There are many candidates for the job. The experience of Alan Pardew and the potential of Eddie Howe make them strong contenders. The FA's reported interest in Ralf Rangner sent most of us scurrying to Google to find out who the little known Leipzig manager is. But the standout contender is Arsenal's French boss Arsene Wenger, 

Would England fans accept a foreign manager? The experience of Sven Goran-Eriksson suggests so, especially when the results are good. Nobody complained about having a Swede in charge the night that England won 5-1 in Munich, though Sven's sides never won the glittering prizes, the Swede proving perhaps too rigidly English in his commitment to the 4-4-2 formation.

Fabio Capello's brief stint was less successful. He never seemed happy in the English game, preferring to give interviews in Italian. That perhaps contributed to his abrupt departure, falling out with his FA bosses after he seemed unable to understand why allegations of racial abuse by the England captain had to be taken seriously by the governing body.

Arsene Wenger could not be more different. Almost unknown when he arrived to "Arsene Who?" headlines two decades ago, he became as much part of North London folklore as all-time great Arsenal and Spurs bosses, Herbert Chapman or Bill Nicholson, his own Invicibles once dominating the premier league without losing a game all season. There has been more frustration since the move from Highbury to the Emirates, but Wenger's track record means he ranks among the greatest managers of the last hundred years - and he could surely do a job for England.

Arsene is a European Anglophile. While the media debate whether or not the FA Cup has lost its place in our hearts, Wenger has no doubt that its magic still matters, which may be why his Arsenal sides have kept on winning it so often. Wenger manages a multinational team but England's football traditions have certainly got under his skin. The Arsenal boss has changed his mind about emulating the continental innovation of a winter break. "I would cry if you changed that", he has said, citing his love of Boxing Day football as part of the popular tradition of English football.

Obviously, the FA must make this decision on football grounds. It is an important one to get right. Fifty years of hurt still haven't stopped us dreaming, but losing to Iceland this summer while watching Wales march to the semi-finals certainly tested any lingering optimism. Wenger was as gutted as anybody. "This is my second country. I was absolutely on my knees when we lost to Iceland. I couldn't believe it" he said.

The man to turn things around must clearly be chosen on merit. But I wonder if our new Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson - albeit more of a rugger man himself - might be tempted to quietly  suggest in the corridors of footballing power that the appointment could play an unlikely role in helping to get the mood music in place which would help to secure the best Brexit deal for Britain, and for Europe too.

Johnson does have one serious bit of unfinished business from the referendum campaign: to persuade his new boss Theresa May that the commitments made to European nationals in Britain must be honoured in full.  The government should speed up its response and put that guarantee in place. 

Nor should that commitment to 3m of our neighbours and friends be made grudgingly.

So Boris should also come out and back Arsene for the England job, as a very good symbolic way to show that we will continue to celebrate the Europeans here who contribute so much to our society.

British negotiators will be watching the twists and turns of the battle for the Elysee Palace, to see whether Alain Juppe, Nicolas Sarkozy end up as President. It is a reminder that other countries face domestic pressures over the negotiations to come too. So the political negotiations will be tough - but we should make sure our social and cultural relations with Europe remain warm.

More than half of Britons voted to leave the political structures of the European Union in June. Most voters on both sides of the referendum had little love of the Brussels institutions, or indeed any understanding of what they do.

But how can we ensure that our European neighbours and friends understand and hear that this was no rejection of them - and that so many of the ways that we engage with our fellow Europeans rom family ties to foreign holidays, the European contributions to making our society that bit better - the baguettes and cappuccinos, cultural links and sporting heroes remain as much loved as ever.

We will see that this weekend when nobody in the golf clubs will be asking who voted Remain and who voted Leave as we cheer on our European team - seven Brits playing in the twelve-strong side, alongside their Spanish, Belgian, German, Irish and Swedish team-mates.

And now another important opportunity to get that message across suddenly presents itself.

Wenger for England. What better post-Brexit commitment to a new Entente Cordiale could we possibly make?

Sunder Katwala is director of British Future and former general secretary of the Fabian Society.