Debate of the nation. Photo: Getty
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Are we any closer to a deal on the televised leaders' debates?

The broadcasters' new offer of a seven-way panel means the Tories are willing to negotiate.

As if the TV debates themselves (if they happen) won't be long and rambling enough, the journey to agreeing the line-up has become the most tedious saga of the general election campaign.

But it finally looks like our leaders might be coming close to an agreement. Last week, ITV and the BBC revealed that they had proposed a new line-up for the debates, with seven-way panels including the SNP, Greens and Plaid Cymru. This plan means the Conservatives, so keen for the Greens' inclusion as a potential drain on Labour support, are close to agreeing David Cameron's participation in the debates.

The Tory party chairman, Grant Shapps, has called the new plan "a lot more sensible" than the initial line-ups, which would have pitted the PM against Ed Miliband, Nick Clegg and Nigel Farage. "I think we are edging here towards something that makes more sense," he added, on the BBC's Sunday Politics.

The leader of the Greens, Natalie Bennett, has confirmed that she would represent her party in the debates, rather than the only Green MP and former leader, Caroline Lucas. She has been fighting for her party's representation in the debates for some time, and welcomes the broadcasters' new deal.

However, problems remain. The DUP's representative in Westminster, Nigel Dodds MP, calls it a "farcical situation" that his party has not been asked to participate in the multiple-party panels. His party has eight MPs. Also, the Lib Dems believe they should be represented in all four debates; the Channel 4 and Sky News offers each remain a simple Cameron/Miliband head-to-head.

With hints from Shapps that the Tories are inching towards an agreement, it looks like the Prime Minister is very likely to take part, which would mean that – in whatever configuration – the debates are well on the way to our screens.

Anoosh Chakelian is senior writer at the New Statesman.

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Who will win in Manchester Gorton?

Will Labour lose in Manchester Gorton?

The death of Gerald Kaufman will trigger a by-election in his Manchester Gorton seat, which has been Labour-held since 1935.

Coming so soon after the disappointing results in Copeland – where the seat was lost to the Tories – and Stoke – where the party lost vote share – some overly excitable commentators are talking up the possibility of an upset in the Manchester seat.

But Gorton is very different to Stoke-on-Trent and to Copeland. The Labour lead is 56 points, compared to 16.5 points in Stoke-on-Trent and 6.5 points in Copeland. (As I’ve written before and will doubtless write again, it’s much more instructive to talk about vote share rather than vote numbers in British elections. Most of the country tends to vote in the same way even if they vote at different volumes.)

That 47 per cent of the seat's residents come from a non-white background and that the Labour party holds every council seat in the constituency only adds to the party's strong position here. 

But that doesn’t mean that there is no interest to be had in the contest at all. That the seat voted heavily to remain in the European Union – around 65 per cent according to Chris Hanretty’s estimates – will provide a glimmer of hope to the Liberal Democrats that they can finish a strong second, as they did consistently from 1992 to 2010, before slumping to fifth in 2015.

How they do in second place will inform how jittery Labour MPs with smaller majorities and a history of Liberal Democrat activity are about Labour’s embrace of Brexit.

They also have a narrow chance of becoming competitive should Labour’s selection turn acrimonious. The seat has been in special measures since 2004, which means the selection will be run by the party’s national executive committee, though several local candidates are tipped to run, with Afzal Khan,  a local MEP, and Julie Reid, a local councillor, both expected to run for the vacant seats.

It’s highly unlikely but if the selection occurs in a way that irritates the local party or provokes serious local in-fighting, you can just about see how the Liberal Democrats give everyone a surprise. But it’s about as likely as the United States men landing on Mars any time soon – plausible, but far-fetched. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to British politics.