This post originally appeared on May2015.com, our election site.
Three pollsters – YouGov, ComRes and Survation – have now put the Tories ahead by one percentage point. This morning YouGov put them ahead by 1 for the second time (they poll five times a week). Is the party finally leading the polls, as many pundits have long expected and some forecasters have predicted?
We are really in a tie, rather than a Tory lead. But that tie has gone from a Labour-leaning one to the beginnings of a Tory-leaning one.
Ever since October, when Labour’s 3-4 point summer lead started to evaporate, the party has still led marginally in the polls. May2015’s Poll of Polls has shown the occasional tie – or even a fractional Tory lead – but Labour were usually ahead by 1-2 points throughout November, December and the first half of January.
The Tories have now crept ahead of Labour, and done so because a series of pollsters have put them ahead (unlike two weeks ago, when an anomalous Lord Aschroft poll gave them a very short-lived lead).
Populus, the second most prolific pollster after YouGov, are still showing Labour ahead. They put them up by one on Monday, but they had them ahead by 3-5 points earlier this month and often put them ahead by two throughout late 2014. Their next poll, on Friday, is worth watching.
We are really in a tie. Individual polls are accurate to within 3 percentage points, which doesn’t mean our Poll of Polls is inaccurate by up to 3 percentage points, but does mean leads of less than 1 point are effectively ties.
This chart of YouGov’s eighteen polls over the past three weeks gives you an idea of how the two parties are regularly exchanging leads.
But the lead Labour have long-held throughout this parliament is clearly gone.
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