George Osborne will deliver his Autumn Statement today. Photo: Getty
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Good cop, bad cop, steady cop? What to expect from the Autumn Statement

The Chancellor will make his last Autumn Statement before the general election. What will it include?

In one of the last set-piece political events before the general election, George Osborne will deliver his Autumn Statement today.

Unsurprisingly with a general election around the bend, the Chancellor has approached this pre-budget in a significantly political way. So what can we expect?

First, we already know a great deal of what will be included in the Statement. These are all the positive spending promises and plans for the future. The headline policies include:


A number of these plans have been condemned by the opposition as “re-announcements”, because the money has been pledged before, and also of “recycling funds”, because most of this is money being moved around and scraped together from further efficiency savings in Whitehall rather than being new spending money.

Yet in spite of this, these policies are the preceding ‘good cop’ to what will undoubtedly be George Osborne’s slightly gloomier cop when he addresses the Commons this afternoon. He will have to address how the economic recovery has not played out exactly, nor nearly as quickly, as first planned.

In light of this, his strategy for delivering the Statement will be to communicate to voters to “stay the course” with the Conservatives, to take the country gradually back to prosperity, rather than handing the Treasury to Labour, which is still the party less trusted on the economy. He will say:

Our long-term economic plan is working. I say: we stay the course. We stay the course to prosperity.

Whether this ‘good cop, steady cop’ tactic will work depends a great deal on Labour’s response. The party has been hitting the Chancellor hard on the fact that he has failed to keep his promises on fixing the economy. The shadow chancellor Ed Balls commented:

David Cameron and George Osborne have now failed every test and broken every promise they made on the economy.

They promised living standards would rise, but while millionaires have got a huge tax cut working people are £1600 a year worse off under the Tories. This cost-of-living crisis is why the Chancellor will have to admit he has broken his promise to balance the books by next year.

Labour will have to hammer this message home during its response to the Chancellor today.

Anoosh Chakelian is deputy web editor at the New Statesman.

Photo: Getty
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The Liberal Democrats are back - and the Tories should be worried

A Liberal revival could do Theresa May real damage in the south.

There's life in the Liberal Democrats yet. The Conservative majority in Witney has been slashed, with lawyer and nominative determinism case study Robert Courts elected, but with a much reduced majority.

It's down in both absolute terms, from 25,155 to 5,702, but it's never wise to worry too much about raw numbers in by-elections. The percentages tell us a lot more, and there's considerable cause for alarm in the Tory camp as far as they are concerned: the Conservative vote down from 60 per cent to 45 per cent.

(On a side note, I wouldn’t read much of anything into the fact that Labour slipped to third. It has never been a happy hunting ground for them and their vote was squeezed less by the Liberal Democrats than you’d perhaps expect.)

And what about those Liberal Democrats, eh? They've surged from fourth place to second, a 23.5 per cent increase in their vote, a 19.3 swing from Conservative to Liberal, the biggest towards that party in two decades.

One thing is clear: the "Liberal Democrat fightback" is not just a hashtag. The party has been doing particularly well in affluent Conservative areas that voted to stay in the European Union. (It's worth noting that one seat that very much fits that profile is Theresa May's own stomping ground of Maidenhead.)

It means that if, as looks likely, Zac Goldsmith triggers a by-election over Heathrow, the Liberal Democrats will consider themselves favourites if they can find a top-tier candidate with decent local connections. They also start with their by-election machine having done very well indeed out of what you might call its “open beta” in Witney. The county council elections next year, too, should be low hanging fruit for 

As Sam Coates reports in the Times this morning, there are growing calls from MPs and ministers that May should go to the country while the going's good, calls that will only be intensified by the going-over that the PM got in Brussels last night. And now, for marginal Conservatives in the south-west especially, it's just just the pressure points of the Brexit talks that should worry them - it's that with every day between now and the next election, the Liberal Democrats may have another day to get their feet back under the table.

This originally appeared in Morning Call, my daily guide to what's going on in politics and the papers. It's free, and you can subscribe here. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to British politics.