Conservative MP James Wharton, who is set to hold his seat. Photograph: BBC.
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Why is Labour losing to the Tories in ultra-marginal Stockton South?

Losses to Ukip mean the party has failed to gain any ground since 2010. 

Labour strategists have long drawn comfort from their party's polling performance in the marginal seats they need to win in 2015. But a new survey by Survation (commissioned by Unite) of north-east constituency Stockton South, where the sitting Conservative MP James Wharton has a majority of just 332, makes unhappy reading for them.

It puts the Tories in front on 39 per cent (unchanged on 2010) with Labour two points behind on 37 per cent (down one), Ukip on 18 per cent (up 15), the Lib Dems on 3 per cent (down 12) and the Greens on 3 per cent (up three). Support for Nigel Farage's party has surged and support for Nick Clegg's has collapsed but Ed Miliband's has failed to benefit. As the detailed data shows, gains from the latter (35 per cent of 2010 Lib Dems back Labour) have been offset by losses to the former (who 12 per cent of 2010 Labour voters have defected), the Tories and the Greens. Wharton, who has worked hard to build a personal following and who tabled the recent EU referendum bill, is also likely to have benefited from an incumbency effect. 

The poll is a demonstration of the nightmare scenario for Labour in 2015: Ukip soar, the Lib Dems sink, but the Tories manage to cling on as the single largest party. It is also a reminder, as I've argued before, that the real danger facing the party is not that it loses seats to the Farageists (although it may) but that Ukip splits the anti-government vote in Conservative marginals. 

This is, of course, just one survey (and the Tories' lead is within the margin of error) and just one seat. But six months out from the general election, Labour should worry that it has seemingly failed to gain ground in what is a must-win constituency. 

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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The NS Podcast #169: Traingate, gaffes and Ghostbusters

The New Statesman podcast.

This week, Helen and Stephen tackle Traingate and Lunaticgate. George Eaton comes down-the-line from the valleys with the latest on the Owen Smith campaign. Anna Leszkiewicz joins to discuss feminism in the new Ghostbusters film. And you-ask-us: what is the role of the John McDonell in the Corbyn ménage? (Helen Lewis, Stephen Bush, George Eaton, Anna Leszkiewicz) 

Links:

Traingate (01.24)
Stephen on Jennifer's Ear

Lunaticgate (05.20)
David Wearing on Smith's slurs and empty promises.

Owen Smith (11.36)
George's interview for this week's magazine

Ghosbusters (18.44)
Ryan Gilbey reviews the film
Listen to the SRSLY take 
Anna on the dark side of the Romcom

John McDonnell (31.17)
Read him in his own words
And watch him in action

You can subscribe to the podcast through iTunes here or with this RSS feed: http://rss.acast.com/newstatesman, or listen using the player below.

And if you're craving yet more NS podcastery, you can watch Helen and Stephen host a live recording at this summer's London Podcast Festival. Tickets available here

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