Are Labour up or down today? Photo: Getty.
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How much attention should we pay to daily polls?

The daily numbers are interesting, but the trend tells the story.

This post was originally published on May2015.com.

How much attention should you pay to the polls? This week Labour have led comfortably, then drifted down, and now the Tories “lead”, according to YouGov’s overnight tracking poll.

This is – as some have pointed out – noise. The trend is what is worth watching, along with the results of each polling house, rather than just one. Reporting on the polls throughout the week relies on following the YouGov/Sun tracking poll, published from Monday through Thursday night.

But they are only one of the eight major, active British pollsters. We hear from some of them – ICM, Ipsos Mori – only once a month, or others – ComRes, Survation, Opinium – only every few weeks. Aside from YouGov, only two other pollsters poll weekly: Ashcroft, who often creates a mini-news cycle on Monday afternoon, and Populus, who poll on Monday and Friday mornings.

If you pay attention to YouGov’s daily tracker polls you can write a new headline almost every day. The real story is the trend across all eight pollsters over time. May2015‘s Poll of Polls is keeping a track of all the numbers each day. We like to keep an eye on our rolling four-day average:

If we just looked at the daily averages, we see a more muddled picture - especially in mid-week, when just YouGov are polling.

Daily polls become important over time. Or they can mean something if a number of pollsters show the same sudden shift, as Ashcroft, Populus and YouGov did on Monday, when all three put Labour ahead by at least 4 points. But that seems to have been about a post-Rochester Tory-to-Ukip swing, rather than any lasting change; Labour's vote share never really changed, and the Tories have now "recovered", at least in YouGov's numbers.

Polls are truly informative over months and years.

And while a four-day average is at least something of a trend, polls are truly informative over months and years, rather than days and weeks. Exploring the polls over the last 44 years - as you can do here on May2015, focusing in on any week or month since August 1970 - tells the story of post-1960s British political history.

Click through to track the rise and fall of the SNP, who led the polls for three months in late 1981, or the Blair and Brown years, and the Tories' long, slow, limited recovery since 1997.

Harry Lambert was the editor of May2015, the New Statesman's election website.

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Article 50 deadline: Nick Clegg urges Remainers to "defy Brexit bullies and speak up"

The former deputy Prime Minister argued Brexiteers were trying to silence the 48 per cent. 

On Wednesday 29 March, at 12.30pm, Britain's ambassador to the EU, Tim Barrow, will hand deliver a letter to the European Council President, Donald Tusk. On that sheet of paper will be the words triggering Article 50. Nine months after Britain voted for Brexit, it will formally begin the process of leaving the EU.

For grieving Remainers, the delivery of the letter abruptly marks the end of the denial stage. But what happens next?

Speaking at an Open Britain event, former Deputy Prime Minister and Lib Dem Leader Nick Clegg had an answer. Responding to the concerns of a scientist in the audience, he declared:

“The most important thing of all is people like you make your voice heard. What the hysterical aggression from the Brexiteers means is they want to silence you.

"That’s why they attack everyone. The Bank of England - how dare you speak about the British economy? How dare judges make a judgement? How dare Remainers still believe they want to be part of the EU? 

"What they systematically try to do is bully and delegitimise anyone who disagrees with their narrow world view.

"It’s a ludicrous thing when 16.1m people - that’s more than have ever voted for a party in a general election - voted for a different future, when 70 per cent of youngsters have voted for a different future.

"It is astonishing these people, how they give themselves the right to say: 'You have no voice, how dare you stick to your views how dare you stick to your dreams and aspirations?'

That’s the most important thing of all. You don’t get bored, you don’t get miserable, you don’t glum, you continue to speak up. What they hope is you’ll just go home, the most important thing is people continue to speak up."

He urged those affected by Brexit to lobby their MPs, and force them to raise the issue in Parliament. 

After Article 50 is triggered, the UK positioning is over, and the EU negotiators will set out their response. As well as the official negotiating team, MEPs and leaders of EU27 countries are likely to give their views - and with elections scheduled in France and Germany, some will be responding to the pressures of domestic politics first. 

For those Remainers who feel politically homeless, there are several groups that have sprung up to campaign against a hard Brexit:

Open Britain is in many ways the successor to the Remain campaign, with a cross-party group of MPs and a focus on retaining access to the single market and holding the government to account. 

Another Europe is Possible was the alternative, left-wing Remain campaign. It continues to organise protests and events.

March for Europe is a cross-Europe Facebook community which also organises events.

The People's Challenge was a crowd-funded campaign which, alongside the more famous Gina Miller, successfully challenged the government in court and forced it to give Parliament a vote on triggering Article 50.

The3million is a pressure group set up to represent EU citizens in the UK.

Julia Rampen is the editor of The Staggers, The New Statesman's online rolling politics blog. She was previously deputy editor at Mirror Money Online and has worked as a financial journalist for several trade magazines.