David Cameron says "red warning lights" are flashing for another economic crunch. Photo: Getty
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David Cameron's warning of another global recession could help the Tories

The Prime Minister cautions that we are on the brink of another global economic meltdown, but this could be politically expedient for his party.

David Cameron warns that we could be on the verge of another global recession. He refers to "red warning lights" flashing once again signalling another economic meltdown could be on the way, in an article for the GuardianHis opening paragraph reads:

Six years on from the financial crash that brought the world to its knees, red warning lights are once again flashing on the dashboard of the global economy.

In the piece, he writes of the economy worldwide potentially slowing down due to current affairs crises such as the ebola outbreak, the tempestuous situation in Ukraine and the Middle East, the eurozone's difficulties, and slow growth in emerging markets, as well as mentioning "stalled" global trade talks.

Labour's shadow chief secretary to the Treasury, Chris Leslie, has responded to this article suggesting Cameron is simply "making excuses for slower growth", referring to borrowing "going up so far this year" and exports falling "behind our competitors".

However, the Prime Minister's intervention is a tricky one for his opponents, because it is politically expedient for the Conservatives to suggest that the global economy remains precarious. Throughout his piece, Cameron uses the phrase "long-term plan", which is a clear echo of the Tories' slogan du jour "long-term economic plan". The way the party is fighting the upcoming election is to suggest that the only path to achieving financial stability is to stick with the government that has been tackling, with some effect, our economic problems for over four years, and not to risk changing the strategy by voting in a different party.

Cameron is undoubtedly preparing the country for the Chancellor having to explain, in the imminent Autumn Statement, awkward figures like why borrowing is increasing, and any corresponding harsh economic policies. However, as elements of a national economic recovery set in, and the Tories creep ahead in the polls, it seems the fact that they are still more trusted than the Labour party on the economy means that warning of future external destabilising factors could work in their favour. It has the added benefit of putting the economy, on which the Tories can speak with some authority, back at the top of the political agenda, as opposed to Ukip-friendly subjects such as immigration and Europe.

Anoosh Chakelian is senior writer at the New Statesman.

Ukip's Nigel Farage and Paul Nuttall. Photo: Getty
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Is the general election 2017 the end of Ukip?

Ukip led the way to Brexit, but now the party is on less than 10 per cent in the polls. 

Ukip could be finished. Ukip has only ever had two MPs, but it held an outside influence on politics: without it, we’d probably never have had the EU referendum. But Brexit has turned Ukip into a single-issue party without an issue. Ukip’s sole remaining MP, Douglas Carswell, left the party in March 2017, and told Sky News’ Adam Boulton that there was “no point” to the party anymore. 

Not everyone in Ukip has given up, though: Nigel Farage told Peston on Sunday that Ukip “will survive”, and current leader Paul Nuttall will be contesting a seat this year. But Ukip is standing in fewer constituencies than last time thanks to a shortage of both money and people. Who benefits if Ukip is finished? It’s likely to be the Tories. 

Is Ukip finished? 

What are Ukip's poll ratings?

Ukip’s poll ratings peaked in June 2016 at 16 per cent. Since the leave campaign’s success, that has steadily declined so that Ukip is going into the 2017 general election on 4 per cent, according to the latest polls. If the polls can be trusted, that’s a serious collapse.

Can Ukip get anymore MPs?

In the 2015 general election Ukip contested nearly every seat and got 13 per cent of the vote, making it the third biggest party (although is only returned one MP). Now Ukip is reportedly struggling to find candidates and could stand in as few as 100 seats. Ukip leader Paul Nuttall will stand in Boston and Skegness, but both ex-leader Nigel Farage and donor Arron Banks have ruled themselves out of running this time.

How many members does Ukip have?

Ukip’s membership declined from 45,994 at the 2015 general election to 39,000 in 2016. That’s a worrying sign for any political party, which relies on grassroots memberships to put in the campaigning legwork.

What does Ukip's decline mean for Labour and the Conservatives? 

The rise of Ukip took votes from both the Conservatives and Labour, with a nationalist message that appealed to disaffected voters from both right and left. But the decline of Ukip only seems to be helping the Conservatives. Stephen Bush has written about how in Wales voting Ukip seems to have been a gateway drug for traditional Labour voters who are now backing the mainstream right; so the voters Ukip took from the Conservatives are reverting to the Conservatives, and the ones they took from Labour are transferring to the Conservatives too.

Ukip might be finished as an electoral force, but its influence on the rest of British politics will be felt for many years yet. 

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