The Returning Officer: Portsmouth Sth IV

The Revolutionary Communist Party (Marxist-Leninist) stood here in both 1974 elections, recording their highest vote when A D Rifkin won 612 votes in the October contest.

In the 1983 general election and the 1984 by-election, Alan Evens stood as an Independent Liberal. In 1983, he finished ahead of the National Front and the suspiciously named D W Fry of the Traditional English Food Party. Evens was still standing in local elections in Central Southsea 24 years later. In 1987, Martyn “Docker” Hughes stood for the 657 Party – representing Portsmouth’s football hooligan crew. His speech at the count featured in a documentary, on which the researcher was Phil Woolas, later MP for Oldham East and Saddleworth.

This article first appeared in the 17 September 2014 issue of the New Statesman, Scotland: What Next?

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Who will win the Copeland by-election?

Labour face a tricky task in holding onto the seat. 

What’s the Copeland by-election about? That’s the question that will decide who wins it.

The Conservatives want it to be about the nuclear industry, which is the seat’s biggest employer, and Jeremy Corbyn’s long history of opposition to nuclear power.

Labour want it to be about the difficulties of the NHS in Cumbria in general and the future of West Cumberland Hospital in particular.

Who’s winning? Neither party is confident of victory but both sides think it will be close. That Theresa May has visited is a sign of the confidence in Conservative headquarters that, win or lose, Labour will not increase its majority from the six-point lead it held over the Conservatives in May 2015. (It’s always more instructive to talk about vote share rather than raw numbers, in by-elections in particular.)

But her visit may have been counterproductive. Yes, she is the most popular politician in Britain according to all the polls, but in visiting she has added fuel to the fire of Labour’s message that the Conservatives are keeping an anxious eye on the outcome.

Labour strategists feared that “the oxygen” would come out of the campaign if May used her visit to offer a guarantee about West Cumberland Hospital. Instead, she refused to answer, merely hyping up the issue further.

The party is nervous that opposition to Corbyn is going to supress turnout among their voters, but on the Conservative side, there is considerable irritation that May’s visit has made their task harder, too.

Voters know the difference between a by-election and a general election and my hunch is that people will get they can have a free hit on the health question without risking the future of the nuclear factory. That Corbyn has U-Turned on nuclear power only helps.

I said last week that if I knew what the local paper would look like between now and then I would be able to call the outcome. Today the West Cumbria News & Star leads with Downing Street’s refusal to answer questions about West Cumberland Hospital. All the signs favour Labour. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to British politics.