Sadiq Khan speaks at the Labour conference in Manchester in 2012. Photograph: Getty Images.
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London mayoral race: Sadiq Khan "to focus all his effort" on general election

Shadow London minister will not follow David Lammy in launching mayoral bid before the election. 

David Lammy's decision to formally launch his bid to become London mayor (as tipped in my column last month), making him the first Labour MP to do so, has prompted commentators to ask whether his likely rivals, Sadiq Khan, Tessa Jowell and Diane Abbott, will follow his lead. 

In response, a source close to Khan told me: 

Sadiq is working his socks off to get Ed Miliband elected Prime Minister. He will continue to focus all his effort on winning 12 extra seats in London as shadow London minister and articulating Labour's radical alternative to the government's prison crisis as shadow justice secretary. 

As shadow London minister, Khan of course enjoys the advantage of being able to woo the Labour selectorate and to win credit for what will likely be a strong general election peformance (Labour's local election results in the capital were its best since 1998).

Last year, after withdrawing from a Progress debate on the future of London, which featured Lammy, Jowell, Andrew Adonis and Abbott (making it the first hustings in all but name), he told me: "I was told it was going to be a forum to discuss ideas about London and it was quite clear to me that it was actually turned into a beauty parade. I’ve got no interest in being involved in a beauty parade, or playing ego politics. It’s about me making sure that I do the job I’ve been given as shadow minister for London with the seriousness it deserves. I’m a member of team Labour."

Jowell, who has led in the early opinion polls, made no comment on Lammy's decision. Last month, in response to Boris Johnson's announcement that he would stand for parliament, she said: "There will be much speculation about candidates; Labour, Tory and other parties. I will certainly be taking this time to prepare my potential offer to Londoners, but this is not a time for formal decision or declaration.

"There are many uncertainties between now and 2016, and Labour in London must not be distracted from the crucial task of representing Londoners and winning in those marginal seats which will contribute to a Labour victory next year. A victory which will enormously improve Londoners’ lives by building homes, helping young people get the skills they need to get jobs, supporting London’s growing and divergent economy and acting to tackle the driving causes of the inequalities that continue to scar our city." 

Having previously warned that Labour "must not be distracted" from the general election, the former Olympics minister will now have to decide whether to revise her position in response to Lammy. Abbott, who has also publicly expressed interest in the role, has not yet replied to a request for comment. 

How she and others play it may well depend on how much momentum Lammy gains from his early entry. 

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

Photo: Getty
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Who will win in Manchester Gorton?

Will Labour lose in Manchester Gorton?

The death of Gerald Kaufman will trigger a by-election in his Manchester Gorton seat, which has been Labour-held since 1935.

Coming so soon after the disappointing results in Copeland – where the seat was lost to the Tories – and Stoke – where the party lost vote share – some overly excitable commentators are talking up the possibility of an upset in the Manchester seat.

But Gorton is very different to Stoke-on-Trent and to Copeland. The Labour lead is 56 points, compared to 16.5 points in Stoke-on-Trent and 6.5 points in Copeland. (As I’ve written before and will doubtless write again, it’s much more instructive to talk about vote share rather than vote numbers in British elections. Most of the country tends to vote in the same way even if they vote at different volumes.)

That 47 per cent of the seat's residents come from a non-white background and that the Labour party holds every council seat in the constituency only adds to the party's strong position here. 

But that doesn’t mean that there is no interest to be had in the contest at all. That the seat voted heavily to remain in the European Union – around 65 per cent according to Chris Hanretty’s estimates – will provide a glimmer of hope to the Liberal Democrats that they can finish a strong second, as they did consistently from 1992 to 2010, before slumping to fifth in 2015.

How they do in second place will inform how jittery Labour MPs with smaller majorities and a history of Liberal Democrat activity are about Labour’s embrace of Brexit.

They also have a narrow chance of becoming competitive should Labour’s selection turn acrimonious. The seat has been in special measures since 2004, which means the selection will be run by the party’s national executive committee, though several local candidates are tipped to run, with Afzal Khan,  a local MEP, and Julie Reid, a local councillor, both expected to run for the vacant seats.

It’s highly unlikely but if the selection occurs in a way that irritates the local party or provokes serious local in-fighting, you can just about see how the Liberal Democrats give everyone a surprise. But it’s about as likely as the United States men landing on Mars any time soon – plausible, but far-fetched. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to British politics.