David Cameron and Nick Clegg hold a press conference on anti-terror laws at No.10 Downing Street on 10 July, 2014. Photograph: Getty Images.
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The Lib Dems steal a march on the Tories by pledging to cut National Insurance

Nick Clegg has pre-empted an expected Tory manifesto commitment. 

When the Lib Dems pledged to raise the income tax threshold to £10,000 in their 2010 general election manifesto many Tories questioned why they hadn't got their first. The answer was provided by David Cameron during the first TV leaders' debate: "I would love to take everyone out of their first £10,000 of income tax, Nick. It's a beautiful idea, it's a lovely idea - we cannot afford it." 

It turned out, though, that we could. The policy was included in the Coalition Agreement and the Tories, with some chutzpah, now present it as their greatest achievement in government. In his most recent Budget, George Osborne announced that the threshold would rise to £10,500 next year, exceeding Clegg's original target. 

The Lib Dems, however, have long made it clear that they want to go further by increasing the personal allowance to £12,500 by the end of the next parliament. Labour, meanwhile, has pledged to reinstate the 10p tax rate (a policy championed by Tory MP Robert Halfon) disastrously abolished by Gordon Brown in his final Budget in 2007. 

These announcements have left the Tories, many of whom, like Milton Friedman, are in favour of cutting taxes "under any circumstances and for any excuse", asking what their offer will be. One policy long rumoured for inclusion in the party's manifesto is a cut in the National Insurance threshold. At present, this stands at £7,956, far below the income tax threshold of £10,000. Cutting NI would ensure that the 1.2 million workers who earn too little to gain from another increase in the personal allowance (or from a 10p tax rate) would benefit. The Tories, still viewed as "the party of the rich", would be able to boast of a tax policy more progressive than that of their rivals. 

But as in 2010, the Lib Dems have got there first. Danny Alexander announced today that after achieving a personal allowance of £12,500, the party would "seek to raise the level that people start paying employee National Insurance". He added: "The Liberal Democrats are the only party in British politics with a long-term commitment to cutting taxes for the working people of Britain. We've delivered the largest programme of tax cuts for a generation over the last four years, despite all of the other financial pressures.

"These manifesto commitments will mean nothing less than a generational shift to a fairer tax system that rewards work and helps working people. That's the way to build a stronger economy and a fairer society and ensure that everyone has the opportunity to get on in life."

It sounds good, but the Chief Secretary to the Treasury notably avoided the question of how the move would be paid for. With the IFS warning that the next government will need to raise taxes (or cut welfare) by £12bn merely to keep departmental spending cuts at their current pace, all parties should be more focused on raising money than giving it away.

But nine months away from a general election, politics is trumping policy. That means the pressure is now on Cameron to deliver a conference-dazzling tax cut pledge this autumn. How he will do that while pledging to eliminate the deficit by the end of the next parliament, and to avoid any further tax rises, is another question

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

Ukip's Nigel Farage and Paul Nuttall. Photo: Getty
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Is the general election 2017 the end of Ukip?

Ukip led the way to Brexit, but now the party is on less than 10 per cent in the polls. 

Ukip could be finished. Ukip has only ever had two MPs, but it held an outside influence on politics: without it, we’d probably never have had the EU referendum. But Brexit has turned Ukip into a single-issue party without an issue. Ukip’s sole remaining MP, Douglas Carswell, left the party in March 2017, and told Sky News’ Adam Boulton that there was “no point” to the party anymore. 

Not everyone in Ukip has given up, though: Nigel Farage told Peston on Sunday that Ukip “will survive”, and current leader Paul Nuttall will be contesting a seat this year. But Ukip is standing in fewer constituencies than last time thanks to a shortage of both money and people. Who benefits if Ukip is finished? It’s likely to be the Tories. 

Is Ukip finished? 

What are Ukip's poll ratings?

Ukip’s poll ratings peaked in June 2016 at 16 per cent. Since the leave campaign’s success, that has steadily declined so that Ukip is going into the 2017 general election on 4 per cent, according to the latest polls. If the polls can be trusted, that’s a serious collapse.

Can Ukip get anymore MPs?

In the 2015 general election Ukip contested nearly every seat and got 13 per cent of the vote, making it the third biggest party (although is only returned one MP). Now Ukip is reportedly struggling to find candidates and could stand in as few as 100 seats. Ukip leader Paul Nuttall will stand in Boston and Skegness, but both ex-leader Nigel Farage and donor Arron Banks have ruled themselves out of running this time.

How many members does Ukip have?

Ukip’s membership declined from 45,994 at the 2015 general election to 39,000 in 2016. That’s a worrying sign for any political party, which relies on grassroots memberships to put in the campaigning legwork.

What does Ukip's decline mean for Labour and the Conservatives? 

The rise of Ukip took votes from both the Conservatives and Labour, with a nationalist message that appealed to disaffected voters from both right and left. But the decline of Ukip only seems to be helping the Conservatives. Stephen Bush has written about how in Wales voting Ukip seems to have been a gateway drug for traditional Labour voters who are now backing the mainstream right; so the voters Ukip took from the Conservatives are reverting to the Conservatives, and the ones they took from Labour are transferring to the Conservatives too.

Ukip might be finished as an electoral force, but its influence on the rest of British politics will be felt for many years yet. 

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