The Greens are relatively popular among the young, but just 3 per cent of over 60s would vote for them. Photo: Getty.
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Without older voters the Greens have little hope

Are the Greens set to become the latest party of significance? Their lack of support among older voters is pegging them at 5 per cent.

Are the Greens becoming an electorate force? Could they become the second new significant party, after the rise of UKIP?

Some have suggested as much, pointing to how the Greens are polling eight per cent in recent Ipsos MORI polls. That would match their vote in last month’s European elections, when they won three MEPs.

But more detailed data, provided by YouGov, suggests the party still has a long way to go – and shows how much support for them varies across different age groups.

The party has quite strong support about  18-24 year olds – the youngest voters. One in eight of them support the party. That is more than the ten per cent who support the Liberal Democrats, and is within single-digits of the 23 per cent who vote Tory.

But the party has far less support among older voters. Just four per cent of 40-59 year olds, and three per cent of those older than 60, would vote for them. These older voters are the backbone of UKIP’s support – 14 per cent of the former and 18 per cent of the latter support the right-wing group.

This is why the Greens are still a marginal party, despite their youthful support. Most voters – nearly two in three – are older than 40.

Younger voters are too small a proportion of the electorate to help the Greens much. Unless the party builds support among older voters, they are likely to stay stuck on around five per cent.

That will continue to leave them as the UK’s fifth party. A more favourable distribution of support means the Lib Dems remain ahead of them with eight per cent – and UKIP are more than twice as popular.

It might seem like, though the Greens are struggling now, their support among young voters will bear fruit in the coming decades. But recent research from the New York Times showed how voters tend to drift to the right after they reach 30.

Given that our older voters are also more right-wing, the Greens may simply be benefitting from a youthful interest in the left – which soon dissolves as voters grow older.

Harry Lambert was the editor of May2015, the New Statesman's election website.

Ukip's Nigel Farage and Paul Nuttall. Photo: Getty
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Is the general election 2017 the end of Ukip?

Ukip led the way to Brexit, but now the party is on less than 10 per cent in the polls. 

Ukip could be finished. Ukip has only ever had two MPs, but it held an outside influence on politics: without it, we’d probably never have had the EU referendum. But Brexit has turned Ukip into a single-issue party without an issue. Ukip’s sole remaining MP, Douglas Carswell, left the party in March 2017, and told Sky News’ Adam Boulton that there was “no point” to the party anymore. 

Not everyone in Ukip has given up, though: Nigel Farage told Peston on Sunday that Ukip “will survive”, and current leader Paul Nuttall will be contesting a seat this year. But Ukip is standing in fewer constituencies than last time thanks to a shortage of both money and people. Who benefits if Ukip is finished? It’s likely to be the Tories. 

Is Ukip finished? 

What are Ukip's poll ratings?

Ukip’s poll ratings peaked in June 2016 at 16 per cent. Since the leave campaign’s success, that has steadily declined so that Ukip is going into the 2017 general election on 4 per cent, according to the latest polls. If the polls can be trusted, that’s a serious collapse.

Can Ukip get anymore MPs?

In the 2015 general election Ukip contested nearly every seat and got 13 per cent of the vote, making it the third biggest party (although is only returned one MP). Now Ukip is reportedly struggling to find candidates and could stand in as few as 100 seats. Ukip leader Paul Nuttall will stand in Boston and Skegness, but both ex-leader Nigel Farage and donor Arron Banks have ruled themselves out of running this time.

How many members does Ukip have?

Ukip’s membership declined from 45,994 at the 2015 general election to 39,000 in 2016. That’s a worrying sign for any political party, which relies on grassroots memberships to put in the campaigning legwork.

What does Ukip's decline mean for Labour and the Conservatives? 

The rise of Ukip took votes from both the Conservatives and Labour, with a nationalist message that appealed to disaffected voters from both right and left. But the decline of Ukip only seems to be helping the Conservatives. Stephen Bush has written about how in Wales voting Ukip seems to have been a gateway drug for traditional Labour voters who are now backing the mainstream right; so the voters Ukip took from the Conservatives are reverting to the Conservatives, and the ones they took from Labour are transferring to the Conservatives too.

Ukip might be finished as an electoral force, but its influence on the rest of British politics will be felt for many years yet. 

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