David Cameron and Angela Merkel at the EU Council building in Brussels on October 25, 2013. Photograph: Getty Images.
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Cameron only has himself to blame for the Tories' alliance with Merkel's enemy

The PM's decision to withdraw the Tories from the mainstream European People's Party made it inevitable that his party would form eurosceptic partnerships. 

David Cameron fought hard to stop the eurosceptic Germany party Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) from being admitted to the Tory-led European Conservatives and Reformists group. The PM's hopes of a successful EU renegotiation depend on Angela Merkel and the German Chancellor was understandably appalled by the possibility of the Tories teaming up with a right-wing rival to the Christian Democrats (the closest thing Germany has to Ukip). 

But in defiance of Cameron's wishes, the group has voted to admit them, with some Conservative MEPs supporting the move. The latest arrival means that the ECR is now the third-largest bloc in the European Parliament, but that will be of no consolation to Cameron. His MEPs have shamlessly defied his authority and further weakened his standing with Merkel (already dented by his "threats" over Jean-Claude Juncker's bid to become EU commission president).

The line from Conservative HQ is that they are "very disappointed" that AfD (which opposes the euro and the US-EU free trade agreement) have been admitted against their wishes and that "the CDU/CSU remains our only sister party in Germany". But while that may be true, Merkel would be within her rights to conclude that she can't do business with a man who can't control his party. 

It's a point that Labour has been quick to make, with shadow Europe minister Gareth Thomas commenting:

This shows just how far David Cameron is being pushed around by his own party when it comes to Europe. We know he can’t control his Eurosceptic backbenchers on Europe, and now it seems he’s lost control of his MEPs too.

Just when the Prime Minister needs to maximise British influence in Europe, his MEPs have instead chosen to isolate themselves to the fringes of Europe and alienate our allies.

What started as a political management problem for David Cameron risks turning into a crisis between Britain and one of our most crucial European allies.

David Cameron can’t control his party over Europe, and now it is Britain’s influence and standing in Europe that is at risk of being undermined as a result. 

But while Cameron will do all he can to distance himself from the results, the truth is that he only has himself to blame (as Nick Tyrone has previously argued on The Staggers). His decision to withdraw the Conservatives from the mainstream European People's Party in 2009 made it inevitable that his MEPs and others would seek partnership with eurosceptic fringe parties (some, such as the xenophobic Danish People's Party, well to the right of the AfD). 

That move was the fulfilment of a pledge made by Cameron during the 2005 Conservative leadership election to appease eurosceptic MPs. But as so often, concessions designed to strengthen his hand have only succeeded in weakening it. 

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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Donald Trump's healthcare failure could be to his advantage

The appearance of weakness is less electorally damaging than actually removing healthcare from millions of people.

Good morning. Is it all over for Donald Trump? His approval ratings have cratered to below 40%. Now his attempt to dismantle Barack Obama's healthcare reforms have hit serious resistance from within the Republican Party, adding to the failures and retreats of his early days in office.

The problem for the GOP is that their opposition to Obamacare had more to do with the word "Obama" than the word "care". The previous President opted for a right-wing solution to the problem of the uninsured in a doomed attempt to secure bipartisan support for his healthcare reform. The politician with the biggest impact on the structures of the Affordable Care Act is Mitt Romney.

But now that the Republicans control all three branches of government they are left in a situation where they have no alternative to Obamacare that wouldn't either a) shred conservative orthodoxies on healthcare or b) create numerous and angry losers in their constituencies. The difficulties for Trump's proposal is that it does a bit of both.

Now the man who ran on his ability to cut a deal has been forced to make a take it or leave plea to Republicans in the House of Representatives: vote for this plan or say goodbye to any chance of repealing Obamacare.

But that's probably good news for Trump. The appearance of weakness and failure is less electorally damaging than actually succeeding in removing healthcare from millions of people, including people who voted for Trump.

Trump won his first term because his own negatives as a candidate weren't quite enough to drag him down on a night when he underperformed Republican candidates across the country. The historical trends all make it hard for a first-term incumbent to lose. So far, Trump's administration is largely being frustrated by the Republican establishment though he is succeeding in leveraging the Presidency for the benefit of his business empire.

But it may be that in the failure to get anything done he succeeds in once again riding Republican coattails to victory in 2020.

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to British politics.