Nick Clegg leaves Hall Park Centre in Sheffield after voting in the local and European elections. Photograph: Getty Images.
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Why both the Tories and Labour need Clegg to survive

Cameron fears the collapse of the coalition. Labour fears a more popular centre-left leader. 

If the Lib Dems lose most or all of their MEPs in the European elections, and endure a similar thrashing in the locals, there will be calls from some in the party for Nick Clegg to resign as leader. With a year to go until the general election, there is still just enough time for someone else to take the reins and try and revive the party's fortunes. 

But for several reasons, even in the event of a complete wipeout, Clegg is likely to survive. First, Lib Dems activists and MPs have been buoyed by the party's unashamedly pro-European campaign and will regard any defeat as an honourable one. "No one can fault Nick's efforts," one told me.

Second, Clegg's political godfather Paddy Ashdown has already moved to shore up his position, warning potential rebels that they will have to answer to him if they attack Clegg after the results. The Lib Dem leader's decision to appoint his mentor as the party's general election chair is regarded as a shrewd one. "Every time there's a crisis, Paddy's on the news channel", a party source notes. Just as Peter Mandelson came to Gordon Brown's rescue in times of trouble, so Ashdown serves as Clegg's political life support machine. 

Third, the most obvious pre-election replacement for Clegg - Vince Cable - has seen his star wane over the last year, while other alternative leaders - Tim Farron, Danny Alexander, Jeremy Browne - are biding their time until after May 2015. They have no desire to lead the party into the toughest general election it has faced for decades. 

But Lib Dem calculations aside, it's worth noting that both the Conservatives and Labour have an interest in Clegg's survival. 

For the Tories, the danger is that Clegg's deposition would lead to the collapse of the coalition and an early general election. While some of David Cameron's MPs might welcome such an outcome, the PM certainly would not. Indeed, he and his staff are already preparing a "Save Clegg" operation for the aftermath of the elections, with a series of Lib Dem "policy wins" planned for the Queen's Speech on 4 June. 

For Labour, the danger is that any replacement for Clegg would succeed where he has failed and revive the party's fortunes. As I've often noted, if Labour is to win in 2015, one of its most important tasks will be maintaining the support of the 20-25 per cent of 2010 Lib Dems who have defected. "We want to wound Clegg, not kill him," one Labour MP told me. In addition to those seats that Labour can hope to win directly from the Lib Dems, strategists point out that in 86 of the party's 87 Tory targets, the Lib Dem vote share in 2010 was larger than the Conservative majority. In 37, it is more than twice as large. Even if Clegg's party partially recovers before 2015, Labour stands to make significant gains. 

Aware of this, some Tory MPs have long hoped that Clegg will be replaced by a more left-wing figure such as Cable or Farron who could persuade the party's former supporters to reutrn home. But fortunately for Labour, their wish is likely to be denied. 

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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This is no time for a coup against a successful Labour leader

Don't blame Jeremy Corbyn for the Labour Party's crisis.

"The people who are sovereign in our party are the members," said John McDonnell this morning. As the coup against Jeremy Corbyn gains pace, the Shadow Chancellor has been talking a lot of sense. "It is time for people to come together to work in the interest of the country," he told Peston on Sunday, while emphasising that people will quickly lose trust in politics altogether if this internal squabbling continues. 

The Tory party is in complete disarray. Just days ago, the first Tory leader in 23 years to win a majority for his party was forced to resign from Government after just over a year in charge. We have some form of caretaker Government. Those who led the Brexit campaign now have no idea what to do. 

It is disappointing that a handful of Labour parliamentarians have decided to join in with the disintegration of British politics.

The Labour Party had the opportunity to keep its head while all about it lost theirs. It could have positioned itself as a credible alternative to a broken Government and a Tory party in chaos. Instead we have been left with a pathetic attempt to overturn the democratic will of the membership. 

But this has been coming for some time. In my opinion it has very little to do with the ramifications of the referendum result. Jeremy Corbyn was asked to do two things throughout the campaign: first, get Labour voters to side with Remain, and second, get young people to do the same.

Nearly seven in ten Labour supporters backed Remain. Young voters supported Remain by a 4:1 margin. This is about much more than an allegedly half-hearted referendum performance.

The Parliamentary Labour Party has failed to come to terms with Jeremy Corbyn’s emphatic victory. In September of last year he was elected with 59.5 per cent of the vote, some 170,000 ahead of his closest rival. It is a fact worth repeating. If another Labour leadership election were to be called I would expect Jeremy Corbyn to win by a similar margin.

In the recent local elections Jeremy managed to increase Labour’s share of the national vote on the 2015 general election. They said he would lose every by-election. He has won them emphatically. Time and time again Jeremy has exceeded expectation while also having to deal with an embittered wing within his own party.

This is no time for a leadership coup. I am dumbfounded by the attempt to remove Jeremy. The only thing that will come out of this attempted coup is another leadership election that Jeremy will win. Those opposed to him will then find themselves back at square one. Such moves only hurt Labour’s electoral chances. Labour could be offering an ambitious plan to the country concerning our current relationship with Europe, if opponents of Jeremy Corbyn hadn't decided to drop a nuke on the party.

This is a crisis Jeremy should take no responsibility for. The "bitterites" will try and they will fail. Corbyn may face a crisis of confidence. But it's the handful of rebel Labour MPs that have forced the party into a crisis of existence.

Liam Young is a commentator for the IndependentNew Statesman, Mirror and others.