Ed Miliband, accompanied by Jon Cruddas, addresses an audience at 'The Backstage Centre' on May 27, 2014 in Purfleet. Photograph: Getty Images.
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Miliband has lost momentum to the Ukip insurgents, but he’s fighting back by turning blue

Blue Labour's values of community and solidarity are the key to winning back alienated working class voters from Ukip.

This was supposed to be Ed Miliband’s great moment. Labour figures had long awaited the May elections as an event that would see him confirmed as a prime minister-in-waiting. But Nigel Farage disrupted the ceremony. After Ukip’s performance, it was he, rather than Miliband, who acquired that most valuable of political commodities: momentum.

Farage’s announcement that he would launch his party’s general election manifesto in Miliband’s constituency of Doncaster North (where Ukip topped the polls in the European election and finished a close second in the locals) was symbolic of how he has knocked Labour off course. Just when he would want to be advancing remorselessly on Downing Street, Miliband faces a rebel uprising in his own backyard. How he responds will do much to determine whether he recovers from the most difficult period for his leadership since last summer.

What he will not do, as he signalled in his speech on 27 May in Thurrock (where Ukip gains deprived Labour of overall control of the council), is to follow David Cameron’s example. The Prime Minister first insulted, then ignored, then imitated Ukip. Miliband is determined to fight Farage on his own terms. Unlike Cameron, he will not give the Ukip leader what he craves most: the promise of an in/out EU referendum in the next parliament. Farage needs Miliband to match Cameron’s pledge in order to repel the Tory line that the only way to guarantee a referendum is to vote Conservative, not Ukip, in 2015. But Miliband has no intention of making a promise from which he would derive little or no political benefit (the issue does not even make it into the top ten of voters’ concerns) and that could eventually produce a premiership-ending defeat.

That Miliband does not feel the need to lurch or to U-turn stems from the extent to which he believes the rise of Ukip confirms his existing intellectual and psephological analysis. As one shadow cabinet ally told me: “The idea that, suddenly, because of the magic abilities of Farage, Ukip have come out of nowhere to do what they did in the Europeans and the locals is wrong; it’s absurd and incorrect. We’re reaping what we sowed back in ’97 through to 2005, when we gave the impression to our working-class heartlands that they were communities that we took for granted. We kept on talking to them about globalisation, but that was passing people by.”

In his speech at Ukip’s triumphalist post-election press conference, the party’s deputy leader, Paul Nuttall, referred to the five million votes New Labour lost between 1997 and 2010, a figure Miliband cited often during his leadership campaign. Of this group, most of whom are working class, just 1.1 million went to the Tories, while 1.6 million went to the Liberal Democrats and half a million to the British National Party. The remainder stopped voting at all. It is this “left behind” demographic that Ukip is now attracting. Michael Ashcroft’s latest polls of marginals showed that 30 per cent of Ukip supporters in these seats did not turn out at all in 2010.

In recent months, Miliband has assembled a series of interventionist policies with potential appeal to this group: a higher minimum wage, more affordable housing, tougher labour-market regulation and cheaper energy bills. What he has lacked, figures from all wings of the party argue, is an overarching narrative that resonates with voters as powerfully as Farage’s story of national loss and abandonment. Labour’s offer, it is said, has become too “transactional”. As a former shadow cabinet minister told me: “We need simpler and stronger messages. A ten-point plan to deal with the cost-of-living crisis is a coherent policy programme which passes muster in seminars but can you remember ten items on a shopping list? I can’t when I go down to Morrisons to do the shop.”

Conscious of such criticisms, Miliband has begun to recalibrate his message. “Blue Ed is back,” one Labour MP told me after his Thurrock speech. With its references to “family”, “community” and “solidarity”, Miliband’s Thurrock address paid intellectual homage to Blue Labour, the group of communitarian thinkers assembled by Lord (Maurice) Glasman.

Owing to the leader’s recurrent disagreements with the iconoclastic peer, the movement’s enduring influence on the party has often been overlooked. Among Miliband’s inner circle, his speechwriter Marc Stears, strategist Stewart Wood and chief of staff, Tim Livesey, are all supporters. The party’s policy review is led by Jon Cruddas, Blue Labour’s greatest parliamentary champion. The group has been the dominant influence on Miliband’s stance on immigration, which rejects both the xenophobic parochialism of Farage and the laissez-faire globalism of Tony Blair. Although his position is attacked from the right of the party by John Hutton and Alan Milburn and from the left by Diane Abbott, Labour strategists argue it is consistent with his wider support for economic interventionism. As one told me: “In the same way that we think that free markets can be good thing, if they’re managed and regulated in the public interest, it’s not really surprising that we think the same about the labour market.”

Miliband is now entering what one shadow cabinet member describes as “the most important period in the whole parliament”. The party’s final pieces of policy work – Andrew Adonis’s growth review, IPPR’s “Condition of Britain” report and the Local Government Innovation Taskforce – will soon be complete. Miliband’s task, and that of his shadow cabinet, will be to weave these threads into a narrative of national renewal powerful enough to overcome the sour pessimism of Ukip. To defeat the Purple Peril, Labour must once again paint itself blue. 

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

This article first appeared in the 28 May 2014 issue of the New Statesman, The elites vs the people

Steve Garry
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The footie is back. Three weeks in and what have we learned so far?

Barcleys, boots and big names... the Prem is back.

Another season, another reason for making whoopee cushions and giving them to Spurs fans to cheer them up during the long winter afternoons ahead. What have we learned so far?

Big names are vital. Just ask the manager of the Man United shop. The arrival of Schneiderlin and Schweinsteiger has done wonders for the sale of repro tops and they’ve run out of letters. Benedict Cumberbatch, please join Carlisle United. They’re desperate for some extra income.

Beards are still in. The whole Prem is bristling with them, the skinniest, weediest player convinced he’s Andrea Pirlo. Even my young friend and neighbour Ed Miliband has grown a beard, according to his holiday snaps. Sign him.

Boots Not always had my best specs on, but here and abroad I detect a new form of bootee creeping in – slightly higher on the ankle, not heavy-plated as in the old days but very light, probably made from the bums of newborn babies.

Barclays Still driving me mad. Now it’s screaming from the perimeter boards that it’s “Championing the true Spirit of the Game”. What the hell does that mean? Thank God this is its last season as proud sponsor of the Prem.

Pitches Some groundsmen have clearly been on the weeds. How else can you explain the Stoke pitch suddenly having concentric circles, while Southampton and Portsmouth have acquired tartan stripes? Go easy on the mowers, chaps. Footballers find it hard enough to pass in straight lines.

Strips Have you seen the Everton third kit top? Like a cheap market-stall T-shirt, but the colour, my dears, the colour is gorgeous – it’s Thames green. Yes, the very same we painted our front door back in the Seventies. The whole street copied, then le toot middle classes everywhere.

Scott Spedding Which international team do you think he plays for? I switched on the telly to find it was rugby, heard his name and thought, goodo, must be Scotland, come on, Scotland. Turned out to be the England-France game. Hmm, must be a member of that famous Cumbrian family, the Speddings from Mirehouse, where Tennyson imagined King Arthur’s Excalibur coming out the lake. Blow me, Scott Spedding turns out to be a Frenchman. Though he only acquired French citizenship last year, having been born and bred in South Africa. What’s in a name, eh?

Footballers are just so last season. Wayne Rooney and Harry Kane can’t score. The really good ones won’t come here – all we get is the crocks, the elderly, the bench-warmers, yet still we look to them to be our saviour. Oh my God, let’s hope we sign Falcao, he’s a genius, will make all the difference, so prayed all the Man United fans. Hold on: Chelsea fans. I’ve forgotten now where he went. They seek him here, they seek him there, is he alive or on the stairs, who feckin’ cares?

John Stones of Everton – brilliant season so far, now he is a genius, the solution to all of Chelsea’s problems, the heir to John Terry, captain of England for decades. Once he gets out of short trousers and learns to tie his own laces . . .

Managers are the real interest. So refreshing to have three young British managers in the Prem – Alex Neil at Norwich (34), Eddie Howe at Bournemouth (37) and that old hand at Swansea, Garry Monk, (36). Young Master Howe looks like a ball boy. Or a tea boy.

Mourinho is, of course, the main attraction. He has given us the best start to any of his seasons on this planet. Can you ever take your eyes off him? That handsome hooded look, that sarcastic sneer, the imperious hand in the air – and in his hair – all those languages, he’s so clearly brilliant, and yet, like many clever people, often lacking in common sense. How could he come down so heavily on Eva Carneiro, his Chelsea doctor? Just because you’re losing? Yes, José has been the best fun so far – plus Chelsea’s poor start. God, please don’t let him fall out with Abramovich. José, we need you.

Hunter Davies is a journalist, broadcaster and profilic author perhaps best known for writing about the Beatles. He is an ardent Tottenham fan and writes a regular column on football for the New Statesman.

This article first appeared in the 27 August 2015 issue of the New Statesman, Isis and the new barbarism