Ed Miliband speaks at the CBI conference in 2012 in London. Photograph: Getty Images.
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Labour is in danger of finishing third in the European elections

Were the opposition to be beaten by the Tories and Ukip, it would send shockwaves through the PLP. 

With the Tories in the lead for the first time since March 2012, it's the national polls that have attracted the most attention this morning. Lord Ashcroft's survey putting the Conservatives two points ahead (34-32) was followed by an ICM poll for the Guardian similarly putting the Tories two in front (33-31). But just as notable was the European section of the latter. 

For the first time since polling on the 22 May contest began, it showed Labour in third place on 24 per cent (down a remarkable 12 points since April), with Ukip in second on 26 per cent (up four) and the Tories in first on 27 per cent (up two). After Ukip's recent surge, few in Labour have expressed hope of winning the election but they must now contemplate a worse outcome: finishing third. 

Were the principal party of opposition to be beaten by the Tories and Ukip next week (as it was in 2009), it would send shockwaves through the PLP. Those inside and outside of the shadow cabinet who demanded that Ed Miliband promise an in/out EU referendum would claim vindication. As I've reported before, Miliband has no intention of changing his current stance: that a vote will only be held in the unlikely event of a further transfer of powers to Brussels. He (rightly) regards the issue of Europe as a distraction from the defining question of how to raise living standards and fears the consequences of being forced to hold a vote as prime minister. But he will encounter significant resistance if Labour is beaten by the eurosceptics and better off outers on 22 May. 

As I revealed yesterday, some shadow cabinet ministers are unhappy at his failure to talk more about how Labour would reform the EU, which they regarded as a quid pro quo for the non-referendum pledge (which a majority of members initially opposed). Unless Miliband shifts his emphasis soon, they will regard this promise as increasingly worthless. 

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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Why Barack Obama was right to release Chelsea Manning

A Presidential act of mercy is good for Manning, but also for the US.

In early 2010, a young US military intelligence analyst on an army base near Baghdad slipped a Lady Gaga CD into a computer and sang along to the music. In fact, the soldier's apparently upbeat mood hid two facts. 

First, the soldier later known as Chelsea Manning was completely alienated from army culture, and the callous way she believed it treated civilians in Iraq. And second, she was quietly erasing the music on her CDs and replacing it with files holding explosive military data, which she would release to the world via Wikileaks. 

To some, Manning is a free speech hero. To others, she is a traitor. President Barack Obama’s decision to commute her 35-year sentence before leaving office has been blasted as “outrageous” by leading Republican Paul Ryan. Other Republican critics argue Obama is rewarding an act that endangered the lives of soldiers and intelligence operatives while giving ammunition to Russia. 

They have a point. Liberals banging the drum against Russia’s leak offensive during the US election cannot simultaneously argue leaks are inherently good. 

But even if you think Manning was deeply misguided in her use of Lady Gaga CDs, there are strong reasons why we should celebrate her release. 

1. She was not judged on the public interest

Manning was motivated by what she believed to be human rights abuses in Iraq, but her public interest defence has never been tested. 

The leaks were undoubtedly of public interest. As Manning said in the podcast she recorded with Amnesty International: “When we made mistakes, planning operations, innocent people died.” 

Thanks to Manning’s leak, we also know about the Vatican hiding sex abuse scandals in Ireland, plus the UK promising to protect US interests during the Chilcot Inquiry. 

In countries such as Germany, Canada and Denmark, whistle blowers in sensitive areas can use a public interest defence. In the US, however, such a defence does not exist – meaning it is impossible for Manning to legally argue her actions were in the public good. 

2. She was deemed worse than rapists and murderers

Her sentence was out of proportion to her crime. Compare her 35-year sentence to that received by William Millay, a young police officer, also in 2013. Caught in the act of trying to sell classified documents to someone he believed was a Russian intelligence officer, he was given 16 years

According to Amnesty International: “Manning’s sentence was much longer than other members of the military convicted of charges such as murder, rape and war crimes, as well as any others who were convicted of leaking classified materials to the public.”

3. Her time in jail was particularly miserable 

Manning’s conditions in jail do nothing to dispel the idea she has been treated extraordinarily harshly. When initially placed in solitary confinement, she needed permission to do anything in her cell, even walking around to exercise. 

When she requested treatment for her gender dysphoria, the military prison’s initial response was a blanket refusal – despite the fact many civilian prisons accept the idea that trans inmates are entitled to hormones. Manning has attempted suicide several times. She finally received permission to receive gender transition surgery in 2016 after a hunger strike

4. Julian Assange can stop acting like a martyr

Internationally, Manning’s continued incarceration was likely to do more harm than good. She has said she is sorry “for hurting the US”. Her worldwide following has turned her into an icon of US hypocrisy on free speech.

Then there's the fact Wikileaks said its founder Julian Assange would agree to be extradited to the US if Manning was released. Now that Manning is months away from freedom, his excuses for staying in the Equadorian London Embassy to avoid Swedish rape allegations are somewhat feebler.  

As for the President - under whose watch Manning was prosecuted - he may be leaving his office with his legacy in peril, but with one stroke of his pen, he has changed a life. Manning, now 29, could have expected to leave prison in her late 50s. Instead, she'll be free before her 30th birthday. And perhaps the Equadorian ambassador will finally get his room back. 

 

Julia Rampen is the editor of The Staggers, The New Statesman's online rolling politics blog. She was previously deputy editor at Mirror Money Online and has worked as a financial journalist for several trade magazines.