Danny Alexander at the Liberal Democrat conference in Glasgow last year. Photograph: Getty Images.
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How Danny Alexander is manoeuvring to succeed Nick Clegg

The ambitious Lib Dem is positioning himself as the "continuity candidate" in a future leadership contest.

When Nick Clegg challenged Nigel Farage to a debate on EU membership, many Lib Dems were hopeful that his stand would revive their party's fortunes. But Clegg's drubbing at the hands of the UKIP leader last week has prompted a new bout of despondency. "It's reminded us of just how unpopular he is," one MP tells me. With no improvement in the party's European election poll ratings, leaving open the danger that it could lose all 11 of its MEPs next month, murmurs of a leadership challenge to Clegg have begun. At the weekend the Sunday Times reported that "Peers, MPs and party activists have delivered a stark message to Clegg that unless the party delivers respectable results, he will have to step aside."

While it's figures from the left of the party who are quoted in the piece (with one anonymous peer clearly identifiable as Lord Oakeshott), a Lib Dem source suggests an alternative origin for the story. "This is Danny's team jockeying," he tells me. 

In recent months, the leadership ambitions of the Chief Secretary to the Treasury have become increasingly obvious. He has strengthened his team with the appointment of Peter Carroll, the founder of the successful Fair Fuel campaign, as his special adviser, and Graeme Littlejohn as his head of office in Inverness, and, a source notes, "has been popping up in places like the Mirror and chatting much more to MPs". The man frequently mocked as "Beaker" has also ditched his glasses, lost some weight and seemingly dyed his hair. 

With Alexander set to replace Vince Cable as the Liberal Democrats' economics spokesman at the general election, representing the party in the chancellors' debate, he is positioning himself as the "continuity candidate" in a future leadership contest (assuming he retains his seat). "Ed Davey's just not up to it," one Lib Dem said. As for Alexander, I was told: "He looks like a faithful paladin of Clegg but he's ambitious". 

For now, however, Clegg's position looks secure. Ahead of next month's elections, the Lib Dem leader's team are carefully managing expectations. "They're preparing for a wipeout and trying to bring everyone into the tent," I'm told. Sources point to Clegg's "canny" appointment of his mentor Paddy Ashdown as general election campaign chair as one reason for his continued survival. "Every time there's a crisis, Paddy's on the news channel", one notes. Just as Peter Mandelson shored up Gordon Brown's position in times of trouble, so Ashdown serves as Clegg's political life support machine. 

With a much-diminished Vince Cable unprepared to wield the knife, the Lib Dem leader, against expectations, is almost certain to be in place on 7 May 2015. 

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

Photo: Getty
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Who will win in Manchester Gorton?

Will Labour lose in Manchester Gorton?

The death of Gerald Kaufman will trigger a by-election in his Manchester Gorton seat, which has been Labour-held since 1935.

Coming so soon after the disappointing results in Copeland – where the seat was lost to the Tories – and Stoke – where the party lost vote share – some overly excitable commentators are talking up the possibility of an upset in the Manchester seat.

But Gorton is very different to Stoke-on-Trent and to Copeland. The Labour lead is 56 points, compared to 16.5 points in Stoke-on-Trent and 6.5 points in Copeland. (As I’ve written before and will doubtless write again, it’s much more instructive to talk about vote share rather than vote numbers in British elections. Most of the country tends to vote in the same way even if they vote at different volumes.)

That 47 per cent of the seat's residents come from a non-white background and that the Labour party holds every council seat in the constituency only adds to the party's strong position here. 

But that doesn’t mean that there is no interest to be had in the contest at all. That the seat voted heavily to remain in the European Union – around 65 per cent according to Chris Hanretty’s estimates – will provide a glimmer of hope to the Liberal Democrats that they can finish a strong second, as they did consistently from 1992 to 2010, before slumping to fifth in 2015.

How they do in second place will inform how jittery Labour MPs with smaller majorities and a history of Liberal Democrat activity are about Labour’s embrace of Brexit.

They also have a narrow chance of becoming competitive should Labour’s selection turn acrimonious. The seat has been in special measures since 2004, which means the selection will be run by the party’s national executive committee, though several local candidates are tipped to run, with Afzal Khan,  a local MEP, and Julie Reid, a local councillor, both expected to run for the vacant seats.

It’s highly unlikely but if the selection occurs in a way that irritates the local party or provokes serious local in-fighting, you can just about see how the Liberal Democrats give everyone a surprise. But it’s about as likely as the United States men landing on Mars any time soon – plausible, but far-fetched. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to British politics.