Generation Yes campaigners leaflet for the Scottish independence referendum on March 29, 2014 in Glasgow. Photograph: Getty Images.
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How close is the Scottish independence race?

The No side's average poll lead has fallen from 24 points in November to eight today. But the odds remain against the SNP. 

For those wanting to gauge the state of the Scottish independence race, today's polls present a particularly murky picture. A new Survation survey in today's Daily Record puts the Yes side 12 points behind (56-44, excluding don't knows), but a Panelbase poll has them trailing by just six (53-47). Even less helpfully, the discrepancy cannot be explained by methodological differences since both companies use weightings based on the 2011 Scottish election, rather than the 2010 general election. 

But despite the gulf in the figures, there are three common trends worth noting. The first is that the race has indisputably narrowed (whatever your pollster of choice). Back in November, the Yes vote stood at an average of 38 per cent, compared to 62 per cent for No. But so far this month, Yes is on 46 per cent with No on 54 per cent. The Unionists' lead has fallen by two-thirds from 24 points to just eight. This is despite the No campaign using what many regarded as its most potent weapon - the pledge to veto a currency union - and José Manuel Barroso's warning that it would be "extremely difficult, if not impossible" for an independent Scotland to join the EU. 

The second is that, for now at least, the Yes side's advance has stalled. The six-point gap shown by Panelbase is identical to that shown four weeks ago and the 12-point gap shown by Survation is a point higher than that in last month's poll. It's too early to say for sure, but the Yes vote may well have hit a ceiling. 

Finally, it's worth making the obvious but significant point that every poll continues to show the No side clearly ahead (as has been the case since the campaign started). While it's not impossible that this will change before 18 September, it is unlikely. A narrow defeat might allow the SNP to press for devo max (and even to revisit the independence question at some point) but a defeat it will be. 

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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Jeremy Corbyn will stay on the Labour leadership ballot paper, judge rules

Labour donor Michael Foster had challenged the decision at the High Court.

The High Court has ruled that Jeremy Corbyn should be allowed to automatically run again for Labour leader after the decision of the party's National Executive Committee was challenged. 

Corbyn declared it a "waste of time" and an attempt to overturn the right of Labour members to choose their leader.

The decision ends the hope of some anti-Corbyn Labour members that he could be excluded from the contest altogether.

The legal challenge had been brought by Michael Foster, a Labour donor and former parliamentary candidate, who maintained he was simply seeking the views of experts.

But when the experts spoke, it was in Corbyn's favour. 

The ruling said: "Accordingly, the Judge accepted that the decision of the NEC was correct and that Mr Corbyn was entitled to be a candidate in the forthcoming election without the need for nominations."

This judgement was "wholly unaffected by political considerations", it added. 

Corbyn said: "I welcome the decision by the High Court to respect the democracy of the Labour Party.

"This has been a waste of time and resources when our party should be focused on holding the government to account.

"There should have been no question of the right of half a million Labour party members to choose their own leader being overturned. If anything, the aim should be to expand the number of voters in this election. I hope all candidates and supporters will reject any attempt to prolong this process, and that we can now proceed with the election in a comradely and respectful manner."

Iain McNicol, general secretary of the Labour Party, said: “We are delighted that the Court has upheld the authority and decision of the National Executive Committee of the Labour Party. 

“We will continue with the leadership election as agreed by the NEC."

If Corbyn had been excluded, he would have had to seek the nomination of 51 MPs, which would have been difficult since just 40 voted against the no confidence motion in him. He would therefore have been effectively excluded from running. 

Owen Smith, the candidate backed by rebel MPs, told the BBC earlier he believed Corbyn should stay on the ballot paper. 

He said after the judgement: “I’m pleased the court has done the right thing and ruled that Jeremy should be on the ballot. This now puts to bed any questions about the process, so we can get on with discussing the issues that really matter."

The news was greeted with celebration by Corbyn supporters.