Generation Yes campaigners leaflet for the Scottish independence referendum on March 29, 2014 in Glasgow. Photograph: Getty Images.
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How close is the Scottish independence race?

The No side's average poll lead has fallen from 24 points in November to eight today. But the odds remain against the SNP. 

For those wanting to gauge the state of the Scottish independence race, today's polls present a particularly murky picture. A new Survation survey in today's Daily Record puts the Yes side 12 points behind (56-44, excluding don't knows), but a Panelbase poll has them trailing by just six (53-47). Even less helpfully, the discrepancy cannot be explained by methodological differences since both companies use weightings based on the 2011 Scottish election, rather than the 2010 general election. 

But despite the gulf in the figures, there are three common trends worth noting. The first is that the race has indisputably narrowed (whatever your pollster of choice). Back in November, the Yes vote stood at an average of 38 per cent, compared to 62 per cent for No. But so far this month, Yes is on 46 per cent with No on 54 per cent. The Unionists' lead has fallen by two-thirds from 24 points to just eight. This is despite the No campaign using what many regarded as its most potent weapon - the pledge to veto a currency union - and José Manuel Barroso's warning that it would be "extremely difficult, if not impossible" for an independent Scotland to join the EU. 

The second is that, for now at least, the Yes side's advance has stalled. The six-point gap shown by Panelbase is identical to that shown four weeks ago and the 12-point gap shown by Survation is a point higher than that in last month's poll. It's too early to say for sure, but the Yes vote may well have hit a ceiling. 

Finally, it's worth making the obvious but significant point that every poll continues to show the No side clearly ahead (as has been the case since the campaign started). While it's not impossible that this will change before 18 September, it is unlikely. A narrow defeat might allow the SNP to press for devo max (and even to revisit the independence question at some point) but a defeat it will be. 

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

Photo: Getty Images
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How can Britain become a nation of homeowners?

David Cameron must unlock the spirit of his postwar predecessors to get the housing market back on track. 

In the 1955 election, Anthony Eden described turning Britain into a “property-owning democracy” as his – and by extension, the Conservative Party’s – overarching mission.

60 years later, what’s changed? Then, as now, an Old Etonian sits in Downing Street. Then, as now, Labour are badly riven between left and right, with their last stay in government widely believed – by their activists at least – to have been a disappointment. Then as now, few commentators seriously believe the Tories will be out of power any time soon.

But as for a property-owning democracy? That’s going less well.

When Eden won in 1955, around a third of people owned their own homes. By the time the Conservative government gave way to Harold Wilson in 1964, 42 per cent of households were owner-occupiers.

That kicked off a long period – from the mid-50s right until the fall of the Berlin Wall – in which home ownership increased, before staying roughly flat at 70 per cent of the population from 1991 to 2001.

But over the course of the next decade, for the first time in over a hundred years, the proportion of owner-occupiers went to into reverse. Just 64 percent of households were owner-occupier in 2011. No-one seriously believes that number will have gone anywhere other than down by the time of the next census in 2021. Most troublingly, in London – which, for the most part, gives us a fairly accurate idea of what the demographics of Britain as a whole will be in 30 years’ time – more than half of households are now renters.

What’s gone wrong?

In short, property prices have shot out of reach of increasing numbers of people. The British housing market increasingly gets a failing grade at “Social Contract 101”: could someone, without a backstop of parental or family capital, entering the workforce today, working full-time, seriously hope to retire in 50 years in their own home with their mortgage paid off?

It’s useful to compare and contrast the policy levers of those two Old Etonians, Eden and Cameron. Cameron, so far, has favoured demand-side solutions: Help to Buy and the new Help to Buy ISA.

To take the second, newer of those two policy innovations first: the Help to Buy ISA. Does it work?

Well, if you are a pre-existing saver – you can’t use the Help to Buy ISA for another tax year. And you have to stop putting money into any existing ISAs. So anyone putting a little aside at the moment – not going to feel the benefit of a Help to Buy ISA.

And anyone solely reliant on a Help to Buy ISA – the most you can benefit from, if you are single, it is an extra three grand from the government. This is not going to shift any houses any time soon.

What it is is a bung for the only working-age demographic to have done well out of the Coalition: dual-earner couples with no children earning above average income.

What about Help to Buy itself? At the margins, Help to Buy is helping some people achieve completions – while driving up the big disincentive to home ownership in the shape of prices – and creating sub-prime style risks for the taxpayer in future.

Eden, in contrast, preferred supply-side policies: his government, like every peacetime government from Baldwin until Thatcher’s it was a housebuilding government.

Why are house prices so high? Because there aren’t enough of them. The sector is over-regulated, underprovided, there isn’t enough housing either for social lets or for buyers. And until today’s Conservatives rediscover the spirit of Eden, that is unlikely to change.

I was at a Conservative party fringe (I was on the far left, both in terms of seating and politics).This is what I said, minus the ums, the ahs, and the moment my screensaver kicked in.

Stephen Bush is editor of the Staggers, the New Statesman’s political blog.