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Labour to vote for Osborne's welfare cap next week

Party's decision could lead to backbench rebellion.

George Osborne's new cap on total welfare spending, which a parliamentary vote will be held on next week, is his least disguised trap for Labour yet. But at his post-Budget briefing to the lobby, Ed Balls made it clear that he won't be falling into it.  He said:

We'll vote yes on the welfare cap next week...Ed Miliband called for a welfare cap last year, in his speech in June, and we have agreed with the way in which the government has structured the welfare cap, what's in and what's out in the next parliament [Osborne's cap excludes the state pension and cyclical unemployment benefits]. We obviously have different views about the way in which we think social security policy should develop, we would rather they did more to reduce the housing benefit bill through building more affordable homes, we think there would be a wider spin-off within the welfare cap from our jobs guarantees, and also we'll abolish the bedroom tax.

In response to Conservative claims that Labour's pledge to scrap the bedroom tax is unfunded, Balls emphasised that "we've said as a backstop how we'd pay for that" (see my blog from the time of Ed Miliband's announcement for details) but noted that many housing analysts predict the measure will cost more than it saves. He ended his answer by confirming "we'll support the welfare cap next week" (Osborne has set the limit at £119bn for 2015-16 and will increase it in line with inflation from then on).

Since, as Balls said, Labour has already pledged to cap "structural welfare spending", and to reduce the benefits bill by building more homes and reducing long-term unemployment, this is not as surprising as it might appear. But the decision will sit uneasily with those MPs opposed to the principle of capping welfare (for fear that weaker-than-expected growth will force cuts to benefits for the vulnerable) and those who simply dislike the act of walking through the yes lobby with Osborne and his Tory cohorts. I would not be surprised if Miliband faces a significant backbench rebellion next week.

P.S. Balls also used his briefing to tell an amusing story about Eric Pickles, who fell asleep during the Budget. Miliband and himself motioned to Vince Cable to wake him, lest Osborne announce major cuts to local government spending, but there wasnt "enough oomph" in the Business Secretary's nudge to do so. It was only when David Cameron intervened that Pickles was finally roused.

Balls said: "Eric Pickles fell asleep for a quite an extended period of time. And Ed and I were worried because, you know, you never know whether there might have been some big cut in local government spending coming which he didn’t know about and so we just politely suggested to Vince Cable that he should wake him up. And Vince elbowed and elbowed and it didn’t seem to make any difference. So Vince was actually knocking away...although at one point after a third nudge from Vince Cable, Eric started to nod knowingly at the contents of the speech while still, with his eyes closed...Then I think, eventually, David Cameron intervened."

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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Commons confidential: Vive May's revolution

It's a risky time to be an old Etonian in the Tory party. . . 

The blond insulter-in-chief, Boris Johnson, survives as Theresa May’s pet Old Etonian but the purge of the Notting Hell set has left Tory sons of privilege suddenly hiding their poshness. The trustafundian Zac Goldsmith was expelled from Eton at the age of 16 after marijuana was found in his room, unlike David Cameron, who survived a cannabis bust at the school. The disgrace left Richmond MP Goldsmith shunned by his alma mater. My snout whispered that he is telling colleagues that Eton is now asking if he would like to be listed as a distinguished old boy. With the Tory party under new, middle-class management, he informed MPs that it was wise to decline.

Smart operator, David Davis. The broken-nosed Action Man is a keen student of geopolitics. While the unlikely Foreign Secretary Johnson is on his world apology tour, the Brexit Secretary has based himself in 9 Downing Street, where the whips used to congregate until Tony Blair annexed the space. The proximity to power gives Davis the ear of May, and the SAS reservist stresses menacingly to visitors that he won’t accept Johnson’s Foreign Office tanks on his Brexit lawn. King Charles Street never felt so far from Downing Street.

No prisoners are taken by either side in Labour’s civil war. The Tories are equally vicious, if sneakier, preferring to attack each other in private rather than in public. No reshuffle appointment caused greater upset than that of the Humberside grumbler Andrew Percy as Northern Powerhouse minister. He was a teacher, and the seething overlooked disdainfully refer to his role as the Northern Schoolhouse job.

Philip Hammond has the air of an undertaker and an unenviable reputation as the dullest of Tory speakers. During a life-sapping address for a fundraiser at Rutland Golf Club, the rebellious Leicestershire lip Andrew Bridgen was overheard saying in sotto voce: “His speech is drier than the bloody chicken.” The mad axeman Hammond’s economics are also frighteningly dry.

The Corbynista revolution has reached communist China, where an informant reports that the Hong Kong branch of the Labour Party is now in the hands of Britain’s red leader. Of all the groups backing Jezza, Bankers 4 Corbyn is surely the most incongruous.

Labour’s newest MP, Rosena Allin-Khan of Tooting, arrived in a Westminster at its back-stabbing height. Leaving a particularly poisonous gathering of the parliamentary party, the concerned deputy leader, Tom Watson, inquired paternalistically if she was OK. “I’m loving it,” the doctor shot back with a smile. Years of rowdy Friday nights in A&E are obviously good training for politics.

Kevin Maguire is the associate editor (politics) of the Daily Mirror

Kevin Maguire is Associate Editor (Politics) on the Daily Mirror and author of our Commons Confidential column on the high politics and low life in Westminster. An award-winning journalist, he is in frequent demand on television and radio and co-authored a book on great parliamentary scandals. He was formerly Chief Reporter on the Guardian and Labour Correspondent on the Daily Telegraph.

This article first appeared in the 28 July 2016 issue of the New Statesman, Summer Double Issue