Business Secretary Vince Cable speaks at the Liberal Democrat conference in Glasgow last year. Photograph: Getty Images.
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Cable's warning to the Tories: lower immigration will harm deficit reduction

The Business Secretary tries to appeal to fiscal conservatives by highlighting that reduced EU migration will lead to "a much slower reduction in the public debt".

With the exception of the EU, there is no issue that the coalition parties are more publicly divided over than Europe. While the Tories have pledged to reduce net migration to "tens of thousands" a year by the end of the parliament (it rose from 154,000 to 212,000 in the most recent period), this is not, as the Lib Dems have emphasised, a government target. As a result, ministers from the two parties are able to adopt diametrically opposed positions on the subject. 

In his first speech as immigration minister, Conservative James Brokenshire will declare at Demos today that "For too long, the benefits of immigration went to employers who wanted an easy supply of cheap labour, or to the wealthy metropolitan elite who wanted cheap tradesmen and services – but not to the ordinary, hard-working people of this country". This despite the supressed government report revealed by Newsnight showing that the number of UK workers unemployed as a consequence of immigration is well below the figure used by ministers of 23 for every 100 additional migrants. In a rebuke to Cable, Brokenshire will add: "In the past year net migration from the EU has doubled, and this figure is – frankly – just too high. Some have tried to claim that this rapid increase is somehow 'good' for the country. Well, just like the Home Secretary, I disagree." He will also claim: "Uncontrolled mass immigration can force wages down and house prices up and put pressure on social cohesion and public services. And let me be clear – it can also cause displacement in the labour market."

But as luck would have it, Cable will deliver his own speech on the subject at Mansion House tonight, giving him the chance to deliver a rapid-fire rebuttal. It's the kind of stage-managed row that both parties believe will benefit them. The Tories get to remind a sceptical public that they are pushing for an even tougher line on immigration, while the Lib Dems get to remind their liberal target audience (the 25 per cent of the electorate who would consider voting for them) that they are fighting back against Conservative dogma. 

Cable will say: "We just have to stop treating people coming to work here as if they are a problem. We need to kill off all the scare stories" and will rightly warn that "Bear down on immigrants, and you lose some of the most dynamic, innovative and imaginative workers in your economy". It is certainly odd that those who are so supportive of the free movement of capital are so opposed to the free movement of labour, but perhaps a more promising line of argument is his warning that reduced immigration will hinder deficit reduction. He will point out that a "marked reduction" in newcomers from the EU will lead to "an increase in the budget deficit and a much slower reduction in the public debt". 

Since immigrants are net contributors to the economy, paying far more in taxes than they receive in benefits and service (they are younger and more economically active than the population in general), their removal increases fiscal pressures on the government. As the Office for Budget Responsibility has shown, we will need more, not fewer migrants, if we are to cope with the challenge of an ageing population and the resultant rise in the national debt. Should Britain maintain net migration of around 140,000 a year (a level significantly higher than the government's target of 'tens of thousands'), debt will rise to 99 per cent of GDP by 2062-63. But should it reduce net migration to zero, debt will surge to 174 per cent. As the OBR concluded, "[There is] clear evidence that, since migrants tend to be more concentrated in the working-age group relatively to the rest of the population, immigration has a positive effect on the public sector’s debt…higher levels of net inward migration are projected to reduce public sector net debt as a share of GDP over the long term relative to the levels it would otherwise reach."

One might expect David Cameron and other fiscal conservatives to act on such advice but, as so often in recent times, the PM is determined to put politics before policy. The irony is that by exacerbating, rather than easing, public fears over immigration (thus handing a propaganda victory to UKIP), he isn't even succeeding in these debased terms. 

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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Angela Rayner - from teenage mum to the woman who could unify Labour

Corbyn-supporting Rayner mentioned Tony Blair in her speech. 

For those at the Labour party conference feeling pessimistic this September, Angela Rayner’s speech on education may be a rare moment of hope. 

Not only did the shadow education secretary capitalise on one of the few issues uniting the party – opposition to grammar schools – and chart a return to left-wing policies, but she did so while paying tribute to the New Labour legacy. 

Rayner grew up on a Stockport council estate, raised by a mother who could not read nor write. She was, she reminded conference, someone who left school a no-hoper. 

"I left school at 16 pregnant and with no qualifications. Some may argue I was not a great role model for young people. The direction of my life was already set.

"But something happened. Labour's Sure Start centres gave me and my friends, and our children, the support we needed to grow and develop."

Rayner has shown complete loyalty to Jeremy Corbyn throughout the summer, taking two briefs in the depopulated shadow cabinet and speaking at his campaign events.

Nevertheless, as someone who practically benefited from Labour’s policies during its time in government, she is unapologetic about its legacy. She even mentioned the unmentionable, declaring: “Tony Blair talked about education, education, education. Theresa May wants segregation, segregation, segregation.”

As for Rayner's policies, a certain amount of realism underpins her rhetoric. She wants to bring back maintenance grants for low-income students, and the Educational Maintenance Allowance for those in further education. 

But she is not just offering a sop to the middle class. A new childcare taskforce will focus on early education, which she describes as “the most effective drivers of social mobility”. 

Rayner pledged to “put as much effort into expanding, technical, vocational education and meaningful apprenticeships, as we did with higher education”. She declared: "The snobbery about vocational education must end."

Tory critics have questioned the ability of a woman who left school at 16 to be an education secretary, Rayner acknowledged. “I may not have a degree - but I have a Masters in real life,” she said. It could have sounded trite, but her speech delivered the goods. Perhaps she will soon earn her PhD in political instincts too.