The two big lessons for the UK from Germany and the Nordics

Social investment welfare spending is central to future prosperity and the state has to become a more active and assertive economic actor.

There are two big economic debates in Britain today. The first is the familiar one about whether austerity is the right response to the aftershocks of the global financial crisis that pushed so many countries around the world into deep recession, leaving a colossal debt overhang. The second, and no less important, is the question of whether Britain can craft a more sustainable growth model, if not a new political economy. To a large extent, the government seems intent on sidestepping this question, mainly resorting to quick fixes like subsidised mortgage credit, and sticking plasters, like timid banking reform and lower corporation tax, to recover the economic output that has been lost since 2008. Labour, in contrast, sounds more ambitious and has repeatedly advocated the need for deeper reform of the British economy.

The case for reform is indeed strong: despite hosting numerous leading edge companies and sectors, together with world class universities and a strong labour market, the UK remains a worryingly weak export nation gripped by excessive financialisation and rising consumer debt. Business investment is pitifully low and productivity failing to improve. Many companies struggle to offer decent, let alone quality, employment. From this perspective, the recovery looks far less impressive.

No wonder, therefore, that progressive policy-makers look for inspiration to countries that appear to offer a more attractive socio-economic model of development. For many on the British left, Germany provides the answers: its strong manufacturing base, ingenious system of apprenticeships and vocational education, and network of regional banking would guarantee a better balanced, more competitive, higher wage economy. Its record low youth unemployment rate, now below 8 per cent, is a case in point. Yet if Labour is right in wanting to pursue an agenda of radical economic change, is it also correct in singling out the German model as a beacon for Britain? The answer is: yes and no.

If policy emulation and international comparison are imperative for countries to improve their own policies, path dependency, long-standing traditions and all sorts of political obstacles put a clear limit to what can actually be transposed.  For instance, Germany’s system of municipal, non-for-profit banks (Sparkassen) goes back to the 18th century. Over more than 200 years they have built up a market share of nearly 40 per cent in retail and SME banking, generously aided by explicit state subsidies, now suspended. How to replicate such a system under present-day conditions, in which new entrants face formidable hurdles, is hard to imagine. And is Britain really dealing with a crisis of "safe lending"? The evidence remains inconclusive. In other words, mutual policy learning requires a much greater capacity for adaptation, experimentation and institutional renewal within set boundaries. Grand ambitions alone do not suffice.

There is another important caveat: as the political economist Kathleen Thelen has argued, the coordinated social market economies, like Germany, have been liberalising in recent decades too, creating new forms of dualism between low wage service sector employment and the high-skill export sectors. While precarious working conditions increased significantly, real productivity growth did not occur. Germany has its very own set of competitiveness weaknesses, ranging from highly unfavourable demographics (the highest median age in Europe) to, skill shortages in important export sectors and a creaking infrastructure.

We just cannot import a new political economy. This is all the more true given the enormous pressures that any successful economic model is currently facing. As in the case of Germany, the Nordic countries, the traditional standard bearers of centre-left aspiration, have their fair share of challenges – whether in the fight to combat unemployment, most notably in Sweden, the quest to maintain and secure educational excellence, or the economic integration of migrants. Moving on from the policy frameworks and partnerships of the 20th century to new, innovative forms of governance fit for the 21st century is proving difficult everywhere in the industrialised world.

Britain must learn selective lessons from northern Europe and beyond, adjusting reforms to its own particular institutions, geography and policy trajectories. Two immediate lessons stand out. First, social investment welfare spending remains absolutely central to future prosperity. Contrary to what many conservatives claim, strategic investments in childcare, welfare-to-work or retraining programmes underpin high employment rates, productive economic growth and fiscal resilience. The big challenge for Labour is how to increase the level of social investment while decisively cutting the deficit. Stark choices have to be made.

Second, the state has to become a more active and assertive economic actor. This can mean devising fine-grained industrial strategies for key sectors, coordinating employers to organise and invest in apprenticeships and skills, or sponsoring new links between leading edge SMEs and public sector agencies. But it should also be about empowering cities with tools for economic development as well as new forms of fiscal devolution. As the economist Wendy Carlin and others have shown, cleverly designed supply-side polices can promote dynamism and reduce inequality.

The bottom line is that the state will continue to evolve from the traditional welfare role towards an agent of modernisation and structural reform. Best practice from abroad will be an indispensable guide – but only if applied in the right way.

Olaf Cramme and Nick Pearce are, respectively, directors of Policy Network and the Institute for Public Policy Research. The conference “A New Political Economy for Britain’ takes place on 30 January

 

The Reichstag building housing the German parliament Bundestag. Photograph: Getty Images.

Olaf Cramme and Nick Pearce are, respectively, directors of Policy Network and the Institute for Public Policy Research

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Richmond is a wake-up call for Labour's Brexit strategy

No one made Labour stand in Richmond Park. 

Oh, Labour Party. There was a way through.

No one made you stand in Richmond Park. You could have "struck a blow against the government", you could have shared the Lib Dem success. Instead, you lost both your dignity and your deposit. And to cap it all (Christian Wolmar, take a bow) you self-nominated for a Nobel Prize for Mansplaining.

It’s like the party strategist is locked in the bowels of HQ, endlessly looping in reverse Olivia Newton John’s "Making a Good Thing Better".

And no one can think that today marks the end of the party’s problems on Brexit.

But the thing is: there’s no need to Labour on. You can fix it.

Set the government some tests. Table some amendments: “The government shall negotiate having regard to…”

  • What would be good for our economy (boost investment, trade and jobs).
  • What would enhance fairness (help individuals and communities who have missed out over the last decades).
  • What would deliver sovereignty (magnify our democratic control over our destiny).
  • What would improve finances (what Brexit makes us better off, individually and collectively). 

And say that, if the government does not meet those tests, the Labour party will not support the Article 50 deal. You’ll take some pain today – but no matter, the general election is not for years. And if the tests are well crafted they will be easy to defend.

Then wait for the negotiations to conclude. If in 2019, Boris Johnson returns bearing cake for all, if the tests are achieved, Labour will, and rightly, support the government’s Brexit deal. There will be no second referendum. And MPs in Leave voting constituencies will bear no Brexit penalty at the polls.

But if he returns with thin gruel? If the economy has tanked, if inflation is rising and living standards have slumped, and the deficit has ballooned – what then? The only winners will be door manufacturers. Across the country they will be hard at work replacing those kicked down at constituency offices by voters demanding a fix. Labour will be joined in rejecting the deal from all across the floor: Labour will have shown the way.

Because the party reads the electorate today as wanting Brexit, it concludes it must deliver it. But, even for those who think a politician’s job is to channel the electorate, this thinking discloses an error in logic. The task is not to read the political dynamic of today. It is to position itself for the dynamic when it matters - at the next general election

And by setting some economic tests for a good Brexit, Labour can buy an option on that for free.

An earlier version of this argument appeared on Jolyon Maugham's blog Waiting For Tax.

Jolyon Maugham is a barrister who advised Ed Miliband on tax policy. He blogs at Waiting for Tax, and writes for the NS on tax and legal issues.