Why the national debt is about to increase by £30bn

The ONS's decision to reclassify Network Rail as a public sector body is a headache for Osborne.

George Osborne was finally able to boast of improved borrowing forecasts in the Autumn Statement (even if this year's deficit, at £111bn, is still £51bn higher than expected in 2010) but the national debt will soon be £30bn larger. Painfully for the Tories, the increase is due to new EU accounting rules, which have forced the ONS to reclassify the state-owned Network Rail as a public sector body. Oddly, it had previously been classified as a private body despite having no shareholders. 

As a result of the change, Network Rail's current liabilities of £30bn (2% of GDP) will appear on the national accounts for the first time from 1 September 2014. That will make it even harder for Osborne to meet his target of reducing debt as a share of GDP by 2015-16 (already pushed back to 2016-17), with the level now forecast to peak at 82%. The change is also expected to increase annual borrowing by an average of 0.2% from now on. 

Another consequence is that ministers are now responsible for approving bonus payments to the body's executives and for other financial decisions. With five bosses set to receive £2m if performance targets are met, this is likely to become a matter of political controversy in the future. Labour MP Tom Harris tweeted earlier: "Now that Network Rail debt is officially govt debt, no excuse for ministerial "hands off" approach. 1st casualty should be directors bonuses". 

George Osborne during a visit to AW Hainsworth and Sons in Leeds. Photograph: Getty Images.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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Hillary Clinton can take down the Donald Trump bogeyman - but she's up against the real thing

Donald Trump still has time to transform. 

Eight years later than hoped, Hillary Clinton finally ascended to the stage at the Democratic National Convention and accepted the nomination for President. 

Like her cheerleaders, the Obamas, she was strongest when addressing the invisible bogeyman - her rival for President, Donald Trump. 

Clinton looked the commander in chief when she dissed The Donald's claims to expertise on terrorism. 

Now Donald Trump says, and this is a quote, "I know more about ISIS than the generals do"

No, Donald, you don't.

He thinks that he knows more than our military because he claimed our armed forces are "a disaster."

Well, I've had the privilege to work closely with our troops and our veterans for many years.

Trump boasted that he alone could fix America. "Isn't he forgetting?" she asked:

Troops on the front lines. Police officers and fire fighters who run toward danger. Doctors and nurses who care for us. Teachers who change lives. Entrepreneurs who see possibilities in every problem.

Clinton's message was clear: I'm a team player. She praised supporters of her former rival for the nomination, Bernie Sanders, and concluded her takedown of Trump's ability as a fixer by declaring: "Americans don't say: 'I alone can fix it.' We say: 'We'll fix it together.'"

Being the opposite of Trump suits Clinton. As she acknowledged in her speech, she is not a natural public performer. But her cool, policy-packed speech served as a rebuke to Trump. She is most convincing when serious, and luckily that sets her apart from her rival. 

The Trump in the room with her at the convention was a boorish caricature, a man who describes women as pigs. "There is no other Donald Trump," she said. "This is it."

Clinton and her supporters are right to focus on personality. When it comes to the nuclear button, most fair-minded people on both left and right would prefer to give the decision to a rational, experienced character over one who enjoys a good explosion. 

But the fact is, outside of the convention arena, Trump still controls the narrative on Trump.

Trump has previously stated clearly his aim to "pivot" to the centre. He has declared that he can change "to anything I want to change to".  In his own speech, Trump forewent his usual diatribe for statistics about African-American children in poverty. He talked about embracing "crying mothers", "laid-off factory workers" and making sure "all of our kids are treated equally". His wife Melania opted for a speech so mainstream it was said to be borrowed from Michelle Obama. 

His personal attacks have also narrowed. Where once his Twitter feed was spattered with references to "lying Ted Cruz" and "little Marco Rubio", now the bile is focused on one person: "crooked Hillary Clinton". Just as Clinton defines herself against a caricature of him, so Trump is defining himself against one of her. 

Trump may not be able to maintain a more moderate image - at a press conference after his speech, he lashed out at his former rival, Ted Cruz. But if he can tone down his rhetoric until November, he will no longer be the bogeyman Clinton can shine so brilliantly against.