The Tories are struggling in the marginals

New polling by Survation in Labour marginals Great Grimsby and Dudley North shows the party neck-and-neck with UKIP.

Two months after the conference season, Labour's poll lead remains stubbornly high at eight points, and there's more bad news for the Tories this morning. After last week's poll putting them in third place in marginal seat South Thanet (behind UKIP), two new surveys commissioned by UKIP donor Alan Bown, and carried out by Survation, show a similarly grim outlook for Cameron's party.

In Labour-held Great Grimsby and Dudley North (the 9th and 10th most winnable Conservative targets), support for the Tories has fallen dramatically since the election, leaving them neck-and-neck with UKIP. The party's vote share is down by 11 points to 20% in the former and by 12 points to 25% in the latter, with support for UKIP up by 16 points in Grimsby and 14 points in Dudley. Support for Labour has risen by seven points to 40% in Grimsby and by six points to 45% in Dudley.

While the Tories hope to win over UKIP defectors by warning that a divided right will put Ed Miliband in Downing Street, there's less potential than they'd like to do so. Just 30% of UKIP supporters in these seats voted Tory in 2010, with 10% voting Labour and 20% not voting. 

It's further evidence, if needed, of why a Conservative majority is the least likely of all the plausible outcomes of the next election. In both seats, the swing to Labour is greater than that shown by the national polls, suggesting that Miliband's party is winning support where it most needs it. That finding is line with Lord Ashcroft's recent marginals survey, which gave Labour a 14-point lead in the 32 Tory seats where it is in second place. 

Ashcroft has responded by quipping that the Tories will commission another "comfort poll", a reference to an alleged private poll showing the party two points ahead of Labour when the Tory incumbents are named.

I wrote recently to the British Polling Council asking whether the poll should be published in line with BPC guidelines which state that "in the event that the results of a privately commissioned poll are made public by a third party (i.e. external to the organisation that commissioned the survey, its employees and its agents — for example the leak of embargoed research) the survey organisation must place information on its website within two working days in order to place the information that has been released into proper context." The BPC replied that since the poll was carried out "by a non-member" (Crosby Textor?), it is not required to be published. For now, the Tories' "comfort polling" remains for their eyes only. 

Conservative ministers listen to David Cameron speak at the party's conference in Manchester. Photograph: Getty Images.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

Photo: Getty
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Which CLPs are nominating who in the 2016 Labour leadership contest?

Who is getting the most CLP nominations in the race to be Labour leader?

Jeremy Corbyn, the sitting Labour leader, has been challenged by Owen Smith, the MP for Pontypridd. Now that both are on the ballot, constituency Labour parties (CLPs) can give supporting nominations. Although they have no direct consequence on the race, they provide an early indication of how the candidates are doing in the country at large. While CLP meetings are suspended for the duration of the contest, they can meet to plan campaign sessions, prepare for by-elections, and to issue supporting nominations. 

Scottish local parties are organised around Holyrood constituencies, not Westminster constituencies. Some Westminster parties are amalgamated - where they have nominated as a bloc, we have counted them as their separate constituencies, with the exception of Northern Ireland, where Labour does not stand candidates. To avoid confusion, constitutencies with dual language names are listed in square [] brackets. If the constituency party nominated in last year's leadership race, that preference is indicated in italics.  In addition, we have listed the endorsements of trade unions and other affliates alongside the candidates' names.

Jeremy Corbyn (46)

Bournemouth East (did not nominate in 2015)

Bournemouth West (nominated Jeremy Corbyn in 2015)

Brent Central (nominated Jeremy Corbn in 2015)

Bristol East (nominated Andy Burnham in 2015)

Cheltenham (did not nominate in 2015)

Chesterfield (did not nominate in 2015)

Chippenham (nominated Yvette Cooper in 2015)

Colchester (nominated Yvette Cooper in 2015)

Crewe and Nantwich (nominated Jeremy Corbyn in 2015)

Croydon Central (nominated Jeremy Corbyn in 2015)

Clwyd West (did not nominate in 2015)

Devizes (nominated Jeremy Corbyn in 2015)

East Devon (nominated Jeremy Corbyn in 2015)

East Surrey (nominated Andy Burnham in 2015)

Erith and Thamesmead (nominated Jeremy Corbyn in 2015)

Folkestone & Hythe (nominated Andy Burnham in 2015)

Grantham and Stamford (nominated Jeremy Corbyn in 2015)

Hampstead and Kilburn (nominated Yvette Cooper in 2015)

Harrow East (nominated Jeremy Corbyn in 2015)

Hastings & Rye (did not nominate in 2015)

Herefore and South Herefordshire (did not nominate in 2015)

Kensington & Chelsea (nominated Jeremy Corbyn in 2015)

Lancaster & Fleetwood (nominated Andy Burnham in 2015)

Liverpool West Derby (nominated Andy Burnham in 2015)

Leeds North West (nominated Jeremy Corbyn in 2015)

Morecambe and Lunesdale (nominated Andy Burnham in 2015)

Milton Keynes North (did not nominate in 2015)

Milton Keynes South (did not nominate in 2015)

Old Bexley and Sidcup (nominated Yvette Cooper in 2015)

Newton Abbott (nominated Liz Kendall in 2015)

Newark (did not nominate in 2015)

North Somerset (nominated Jeremy Corbyn in 2015)

Pudsey (nominated Andy Bunrnham in 2015)

Reading West (did not nominate in 2015)

Reigate (nominated Yvette Cooper in 2015)

Romford (nominated Andy Burnham in 2015)

Salisbury (did not nominate in 2015)

Southampton Test (nominated Jeremy Corbyn in 2015)

South Cambridgeshire  (did not nominate in 2015)

South Thanet (did not nominate in 2015)

South West Bedfordshire (did not nominate in 2015)

Sutton & Cheam (nominated Jeremy Corbyn in 2015)

Sutton Coldfield (did not nominate in 2015)

Swansea West (nominated Jeremy Corbyn in 2015)

Tewkesbury (nominated Jeremy Corbyn in 2015)

Westmoreland and Lunesdale (nominated Jeremy Corbyn in 2015)

Wokingham (nominated Jeremy Corbyn in 2015)

Owen Smith (12)

Altrincham and Sale West (nominated Yvette Cooper in 2015)

Battersea (nominated Yvette Cooper in 2015)

Blaneau Gwent (nominated Jeremy Corbyn in 2015)

Bow and Bethnal Green (nominated Jeremy Corbyn in 2015)

Reading East (did not nominate in 2015)

Richmond Park (nominated Jeremy Corbyn in 2015)

Runnymede and Weybridge (nominated Yvette Cooper in 2015)

Streatham (nominated Liz Kendall in 2015)

Vauxhall (nominated Liz Kendall in 2015)

West Ham (nominated Jeremy Corbyn in 2015)

Westminster North (nominated Yvette Coooper in 2015)

Wimbledon