Why the Tories are wrong to assume that Help to Buy is political gold

While Osborne believes that "everyone will be happy as property values go up", new polling shows most of the public don't believe rising house prices are good for them or good for Britain.

There is rarely a day when the government's Help to Buy scheme isn't criticised by some major organisation or political figure, and today's rebuke was provided by Ed Balls. In his speech to the CBI, he warned that inflating demand without significantly increasing supply would deliver "an unbalanced recovery" and "make home ownership even further out of reach for the aspiring first time buyers his scheme should be helping."

But unperturbed by such criticisms, the Tories are convinced that the policy is "retail gold". George Pascoe Watson recently reported that David Cameron had "ordered staff to ensure he meets couples taking advantage of the £10,000 assistance on offer whenever he goes on a regional visit". But while those who benefit directly from Help to Buy will obviously be grateful, what of those who don't? George Osborne reportedly told the cabinet recently, "Hopefully we will get a little housing boom and everyone will be happy as property values go up", but he would be wrong to assume that the public regard higher house prices as an unqualified good. A new poll by Ipsos MORI for Inside Housing shows that 57% disagree that "rising house prices are a good thing for Britain" (23% of whom strongly disagree), while just 20% agree. In addition, by 41% to 29%, they disagree that "rising house prices are a good thing for me personally". The recent experience of the crash and concern at the lack of affordable housing for young people has, perhaps unsurprisingly, persuaded the public that inflating another housing bubble isn't a great idea.

If the impression develops that the government is focused on stimulating demand rather than expanding supply, Help to Buy could well prove a vote loser. By pledging to build 200,000 homes a year by 2017 and to limit the inflationary effect of Help to Buy (most obviously by reducing the current £600,000 cap for support), Labour is positioning itself to take advantage of this new sceptical mood.

George Osborne delivers his speech to the Conservative conference in Manchester. Photograph: Getty Images.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

Ukip's Nigel Farage and Paul Nuttall. Photo: Getty
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Is the general election 2017 the end of Ukip?

Ukip led the way to Brexit, but now the party is on less than 10 per cent in the polls. 

Ukip could be finished. Ukip has only ever had two MPs, but it held an outside influence on politics: without it, we’d probably never have had the EU referendum. But Brexit has turned Ukip into a single-issue party without an issue. Ukip’s sole remaining MP, Douglas Carswell, left the party in March 2017, and told Sky News’ Adam Boulton that there was “no point” to the party anymore. 

Not everyone in Ukip has given up, though: Nigel Farage told Peston on Sunday that Ukip “will survive”, and current leader Paul Nuttall will be contesting a seat this year. But Ukip is standing in fewer constituencies than last time thanks to a shortage of both money and people. Who benefits if Ukip is finished? It’s likely to be the Tories. 

Is Ukip finished? 

What are Ukip's poll ratings?

Ukip’s poll ratings peaked in June 2016 at 16 per cent. Since the leave campaign’s success, that has steadily declined so that Ukip is going into the 2017 general election on 4 per cent, according to the latest polls. If the polls can be trusted, that’s a serious collapse.

Can Ukip get anymore MPs?

In the 2015 general election Ukip contested nearly every seat and got 13 per cent of the vote, making it the third biggest party (although is only returned one MP). Now Ukip is reportedly struggling to find candidates and could stand in as few as 100 seats. Ukip leader Paul Nuttall will stand in Boston and Skegness, but both ex-leader Nigel Farage and donor Arron Banks have ruled themselves out of running this time.

How many members does Ukip have?

Ukip’s membership declined from 45,994 at the 2015 general election to 39,000 in 2016. That’s a worrying sign for any political party, which relies on grassroots memberships to put in the campaigning legwork.

What does Ukip's decline mean for Labour and the Conservatives? 

The rise of Ukip took votes from both the Conservatives and Labour, with a nationalist message that appealed to disaffected voters from both right and left. But the decline of Ukip only seems to be helping the Conservatives. Stephen Bush has written about how in Wales voting Ukip seems to have been a gateway drug for traditional Labour voters who are now backing the mainstream right; so the voters Ukip took from the Conservatives are reverting to the Conservatives, and the ones they took from Labour are transferring to the Conservatives too.

Ukip might be finished as an electoral force, but its influence on the rest of British politics will be felt for many years yet. 

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