Why the Tories are wrong to assume that Help to Buy is political gold

While Osborne believes that "everyone will be happy as property values go up", new polling shows most of the public don't believe rising house prices are good for them or good for Britain.

There is rarely a day when the government's Help to Buy scheme isn't criticised by some major organisation or political figure, and today's rebuke was provided by Ed Balls. In his speech to the CBI, he warned that inflating demand without significantly increasing supply would deliver "an unbalanced recovery" and "make home ownership even further out of reach for the aspiring first time buyers his scheme should be helping."

But unperturbed by such criticisms, the Tories are convinced that the policy is "retail gold". George Pascoe Watson recently reported that David Cameron had "ordered staff to ensure he meets couples taking advantage of the £10,000 assistance on offer whenever he goes on a regional visit". But while those who benefit directly from Help to Buy will obviously be grateful, what of those who don't? George Osborne reportedly told the cabinet recently, "Hopefully we will get a little housing boom and everyone will be happy as property values go up", but he would be wrong to assume that the public regard higher house prices as an unqualified good. A new poll by Ipsos MORI for Inside Housing shows that 57% disagree that "rising house prices are a good thing for Britain" (23% of whom strongly disagree), while just 20% agree. In addition, by 41% to 29%, they disagree that "rising house prices are a good thing for me personally". The recent experience of the crash and concern at the lack of affordable housing for young people has, perhaps unsurprisingly, persuaded the public that inflating another housing bubble isn't a great idea.

If the impression develops that the government is focused on stimulating demand rather than expanding supply, Help to Buy could well prove a vote loser. By pledging to build 200,000 homes a year by 2017 and to limit the inflationary effect of Help to Buy (most obviously by reducing the current £600,000 cap for support), Labour is positioning itself to take advantage of this new sceptical mood.

George Osborne delivers his speech to the Conservative conference in Manchester. Photograph: Getty Images.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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Zac Goldsmith to quit as Tory MP after Heathrow decision announced

The environmentalist is expected to stand as an independent candidate.

Zac Goldsmith, the MP for Richmond Park and North Kingston, and a committed environmentalist, has announced his resignation after the government backed a third runway at Heathrow. 

He has told his local Conservative association of the decision, according to The Huffington Post. The group has reportedly agreed to back him as an independent in a by-election.

Goldsmith tweeted: "Following the Government's catastrophic Heathrow announcement, I will be meeting my constituents later today before making a statement."

Goldsmith had previously pledged to resign if the government went ahead with the decision. By quitting, he will trigger a by-election, in which he is expected to stand as an independent candidate. 

Speaking in the Commons, he said the project was "doomed" and would be a "millstone" around the government's neck. He said: "The complexities, the cost, the legal complications mean this project is almost certainly not going to be delivered."


However, there is no guarantee it is a by-election he will win. Here's Stephen Bush on why a Richmond Park and Kingston by-election could be good news for the Lib Dems.

After years of speculation, the government announced on Tuesday it was plumping for Heathrow instead of Gatwick. Transport secretary Chris Grayling called it a "momentous" decision.

The announcement will please business groups, but anger environmentalists, and MPs representing west London constituencies already affected by the noise pollution. 

In a recent post on his constituency website, Goldsmith highlighted the noise levels, the risk of flying so many planes over densely-populated areas, and the political fallout. He declared: "I promised voters I would step down and hold a by-election if Heathrow gets the go-ahead and I will stand by that pledge."

Once a Tory "nice boy" pin up, Goldsmith's reputation has suffered in the past year due to his campaigning tactics when he ran against Sadiq Khan for London mayor. Advised by strategist Lynton Crosby, Goldsmith tried to play on racial divisions and accused Khan of links to extremists. Despite enjoying support from London's Evening Standard, he lost.

The former mayor of London, Boris Johnson, once declared he would lie down "in front of those bulldozers" but has toned down his objections since becoming foreign secretary.

Green MP Caroline Lucas urged him to follow Goldsmith and resign, so he could team up with her in opposing the extension at Heathrow.

Labour, in contrast, has welcomed the decision. The shadow Transport secretary Andy McDonald said: “We welcome any decision that will finally give certainty on airport expansion, much needed in terms of investment and growth in our country." He urged the government to provide more detail on the proposals.

But London's Labour mayor Sadiq Khan accused the government of "running roughshod" over Londoners' views. He said: "Heathrow expansion is the wrong decision for London, and the wrong decision for the whole of Britain."

Julia Rampen is the editor of The Staggers, The New Statesman's online rolling politics blog. She was previously deputy editor at Mirror Money Online and has worked as a financial journalist for several trade magazines.