The Tories' biggest problem remains their toxic brand

A new poll shows that 33% would never vote Conservative compared to 24% for Labour, making Miliband's party the least toxic.

One reason why Labour strategists are confident that their party will win the next election is that it is the "least toxic" among voters. While a significant chunk of the electorate would never consider voting Conservative (most notably ethnic minorities, northerners and Scots), far fewer would never vote Labour. 

That point is reinforced by a new poll from YouGov today showing that while 33% would never vote Conservative, far fewer (24%) would never vote Labour. The Tories' problem is greatest in Scotland, where 59% would never vote for them (they currently hold just one seat out of a possible 59) and in the north, where 39% would never vote for them (they hold 43 seats out of a possible 158).

Conservative MP Gavin Barwell notes that "modernisation is about reducing/reversing this gap" but that's a project Cameron, under the tutelage of Lynton Crosby, long abandoned. The Tories are fond of deriding Labour’s alleged "35 per cent strategy", under which a coalition of the party’s core supporters and Lib Dem defectors allow it to crawl over the electoral finish line – but few note the irony that the Tory leadership has now adopted its own version of this game plan. Under heavy fire from the Ukip insurgency, the party has retreated to its core territory of welfare, immigration and Europe.

To surpass Labour in 2015, the party needs to expand its appeal considerably among those groups that have shunned it at the past four elections: ethnic minorities, northerners, Scots and LGBT voters. With the exception of equal marriage, few visible efforts have been made to do so. In January of this year, Tory strategists briefed that Cameron was so concerned at how the issue of race was damaging support for the party that he would address it "head-on with a speech in the next two months". Yet seven months on, nothing has been heard. Instead, the party has further damaged its reputation with ethnic minorities through a series of demagogic stunts on immigration.

But interestingly, the Tories are only the third most toxic party. Thirty five per cent would never vote Lib Dem, while 43% would never vote UKIP. While many casually claim that voters will never make Ed Miliband prime minister, it is the Labour leader who is fishing in the largest pool. 

George Osborne and Michael Gove at the Conservative conference in Manchester last month. Photograph: Getty Images.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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The US intelligence leaks on the Manchester attack are part of a disturbing pattern

Even the United States' strongest allies cannot rely on this president or his administration to keep their secrets.

A special relationship, indeed. British intelligence services will stop sharing information with their American counterparts about the Manchester bombing after leaks persisted even after public rebukes from Amber Rudd (who called the leaks "irritating") and Michael Fallon (who branded them "disappointing").

In what must be a diplomatic first, Britain isn't even the first of the United States' allies to review its intelligence sharing protocols this week. The Israeli government have also "reviewed" their approach to intelligence sharing with Washington after Donald Trump first blabbed information about Isis to the Russian ambassador from a "close ally" of the United States and then told reporters, unprompted, that he had "never mentioned Israel" in the conversation.

Whether the Manchester leaks emanate from political officials appointed by Trump - many of whom tend to be, if you're feeling generous, cranks of the highest order - or discontent with Trump has caused a breakdown in discipline further down the chain, what's clear is that something is very rotten in the Trump administration.

Elsewhere, a transcript of Trump's call to the Philippine strongman Rodrigo Duterte in which the American president revealed that two nuclear submarines had been deployed off the coast of North Korea, has been widely leaked to the American press

It's all part of a clear and disturbing pattern, that even the United States' strongest allies in Tel Aviv and London cannot rely on this president or his administration to keep their secrets.

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to British politics.

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