Should pre-election opinion polls be banned? A third of MPs think so

30 per cent of MPs support a ban on polling for a "defined period" before general elections, with backing for the proposal strongest among Labour.

Unlike many other countries, including France, India, Italy and Spain, the UK does not ban the publication of opinion polls in the run-up to a general election. But as a new poll from ComRes shows, a significant number of MPs believe it should. The survey of 159 MPs (carried out following the decision of the Indian Election Commission to ban polls in the final 48 hours of campaigning in the five states holding elections this month) found that 30% support a ban on polls for "a defined period" before general elections. 

Backing for the proposal was strongest among Labour MPs, 35% of whom favour a ban, with 32% of Lib Dems and 25% of Tories agreeing. Based on that, I'd say that Labour and the Lib Dems' justified anger at how right-wing papers often spin polls in the Conservatives' favour was a factor. Labour MPs may also be scarred by the experience of the 1992 election, when polls pointed to a victory for Neil Kinnock (owing to the 'shy Tory factor'), and fear that inaccurate surveys could depress turnout (although it is worth pointing out that polling reliability has improved significantly since then). 

But while there may be some merit to the argument that a ban on polls would help reduce a herd mentality among the electorate, ComRes chairman Andrew Hawkins is certainly right when he says that "the internet, and especially the advance of social and other online media, renders entirely nugatory any attempt to ban the publication of opinion polls in the run-up to elections." The danger of a ban is that selective and possibly unreliable data would leak out anyway. Far better that polls are published transparently for all to analyse. 

Here's the full breakdown of the results.

Would you support or oppose a ban on the publication of opinion polls for a defined period prior to General Elections?

Support
All 30%

Con 25%
Lab 35%
Lib Dems 32%

Oppose
All 45%

Con 49%
Lab 39%
Lib Dems 38%

Don’t know
All 25%

Con 26%
Lab 26%
Lib Dems 30%

 

David Cameron, Nick Clegg and Ed Miliband attend a ceremony at Buckingham Palace to mark the Duke of Edinburgh's 90th birthday on June 30, 2011. Photograph: Getty Images.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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10 times Nicola Sturgeon nailed what it's like to be a Remain voter post-Brexit

Scotland's First Minister didn't mince her words.

While Westminster flounders, up in Holyrood, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has busied herself trying to find a way for Scotland to stay in the European Union

And in a speech on Monday, she laid out the options.

The Scottish Nationalist acknowledged the option of independence would not be straightforward, but she added: “It may well be that the option that offers us the greatest certainty, stability and the maximum control over our own destiny, is that of independence.”

She also hinted at a more measured stance, where Scotland could “retain ties and keep open channels” with the EU while other countries within the UK “pursue different outcomes”. 

And she praised the new PM Theresa May’s commitment to wait for a UK-wide agreement before triggering Article 50.

But Sturgeon’s wide-ranging speech also revisited her memories of Brexit, and the days of chaos that followed. Here are some of the best bits.

1. On the referendum

I am the last person you will hear criticising the principle of referenda. But proposing a referendum when you believe in the constitutional change it offers is one thing. Proposing - as David Cameron did - a referendum even though he opposed the change on offer is quite another. 

2. On the result

I told the Scottish Parliament a few days later that I was “disappointed and concerned” by the result. I have to admit that was parliamentary language for a much stronger feeling.

3. On the Leave campaign

I felt, and still feel, contempt for a Leave campaign that had lied and given succour to the racism and intolerance of the far right.

4. On leadership

It seemed abundantly clear to me that people - even many of those who had voted to Leave - were going to wake up feeling very anxious and uncertain. It was therefore the job of politicians, not to pretend that we instantly had all the answers, but to give a sense of direction. To try to create some order out of the chaos. That’s what I was determined to try to do for Scotland. I assumed that UK politicians would do likewise. I was wrong. 

5. On EU nationals

I felt then – and still feel very strongly today - that we must give them as much reassurance as possible. It is wrong that the UK government has not yet given a guarantee of continued residence to those who have built lives, careers and families here in the UK.

6. On karma

You tend to reap what you have sown over many years. It shouldn’t have come as a surprise to politicians who have spent years denigrating the EU and pandering to the myths about free movement, that some voters simply did not believe them when they suddenly started extolling the virtues of both.

7. On teenage voters

I think it was wrong in principle to deny EU nationals and 16 & 17 year olds the right to vote. But, as well as being wrong in principle, it was also tactically foolish. 

8. On slogans

While “Brexit means Brexit” is intended to sound like a strong statement of intent it is, in truth, just a soundbite that masks a lack of any clear sense of direction.

9. On Scotland

Some will say that we also voted to stay in the UK, so we must accept the UK wide verdict. But in 2014, we voted to stay part of a UK that was a member of the EU - indeed, we were told then that protecting our EU membership was one of the main reasons to vote against independence.

10. On taking back control

To end up in a position, which is highly possible, where we have to abide by all the rules of the single market and pay to be part of it, but have no say whatsoever in what the rules are, would not be taking back control, to coin a phrase we’ve heard more than once recently- it would be giving up control.