Salmond's only hope of victory is a Tory recovery

To triumph against the odds, the Yes campaign needs fear of a Conservative government and permanent austerity to push voters towards independence.

After trailing in the polls by a double-digit margin for most of the last year, Yes Scotland is hoping that the launch of today's independence White Paper marks the beginning of a remarkable comeback. Alex Salmond has long spoken of the possibility of a revival similar to that enjoyed by the SNP against Labour in the 2011 Scottish parliamentary election. He told the NS back in June, "This is the phoney war. This is not the campaign. I went into an election [for the Scottish Parliament] in 2011 20 points behind in the polls and ended up 15 in front. The real game hasn’t even started. We are just clearing the ground." 

Only the foolhardy would write off a campaigner as formidable as Salmond, but the odds are overwhelmingly against him. There has never been a majority for independence in Scotland (around 20 per cent of SNP voters support the Union) and the uncertainty created by the financial crisis and its aftermath has made voters even more reluctant to take that leap into the dark. The SNP's refusal to publish the legal advice on whether Scotland would inherit Britain’s membership of the EU and the uncertainty over its preferred option of a currency union with the rest of the UK (Unionist figures privately suggest that they may pledge to stage a referendum on the issue and Wales has already vowed to veto it) have also damaged its cause. After pledging to preserve so many of the features of the British state - the monarchy, the pound, Nato membership - independence looks increasingly like a solution in search of a problem. 

The great irony of today's launch is that the headline announcement was on childcare (the SNP pledged to ensure that, over time, "every child from age one to starting school is guaranteed 30 hours of provision for 38 weeks of the year"), an area already devolved to Holyrood (Nicola Sturgeon responded by saying that she didn't want the additional tax revenue raised by parents returning to work to accrue to Westminster). Salmond repeated his promise to abolish the bedroom tax, the issue that he has predicted "might well have the same galvanising effect as the poll tax". But Ed Miliband's unambiguous pledge to do the same means this is less likely to prove the elixir he needs.

The increasing probability of a Labour victory in 2015 has helped to further tilt the odds against independence. One of the arguments Salmond made for secession was the risk that the UK could leave the EU. Earlier this year he gleefully cited a poll showing that the No campaign's lead evaporates when the Scottish public are asked how they would vote if Britain looked set to leave. But the diminishing likelihood of a Tory victory, and of an in/out referendum in 2017 (Labour has still not, and may not, promise a public vote), means it will be harder for him to warn that we're heading for Brexit. 

With just one Conservative MP in Scotland (compared to 41 for Labour), the fear of another five years under the Tory yoke, and a government wedded to permanent austerity, could help to push many towards independence. But if Labour is still comfortably ahead in the polls in September 2014, far fewer will fear what lies ahead. For this reason, a Tory recovery is perhaps the essential precondition of  a Salmond victory. 

Alex Salmond and Deputy First Minister Nicola Sturgeon present the White Paper for Scottish independance at the Science Museum Glasgow earlier today. Photograph: Getty Images.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

Photo: Getty Images/Carl Court
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Nigel Farage: welcoming refugees will lead to "migrant tide" of jihadists

Ukip's leader Nigel Farage claims that housing refugees will allow Isis to smuggle in "jihadists".

Nigel Farage has warned that granting sanctuary to refugees could result in Britain being influenced by Isis. 

In remarks that were immediately condemned online, the Ukip leader said "When ISIS say they will flood the migrant tide with 500,000 of their own jihadists, we'd better listen", before saying that Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor, had done something "very dangerous" in attempting to host refugees, saying that she was "compounding the pull factors" that lead migrants to attempt the treacherous Mediterranean crossing.

Farage, who has four children, said that as a father, he was "horrified" by the photographs of small children drowned on a European beach, but said housing more refugees would simply make the problem worse. 

The Ukip leader, who failed for the fifth successive occassion to be elected as an MP in May, said he welcomed the prospect of a Jeremy Corbyn victory, describing it as a "good result". Corbyn is more sceptical about the European Union than his rivals for the Labour leadership, which Farage believes will provide the nascent Out campaign with a boost. 

 

Stephen Bush is editor of the Staggers, the New Statesman’s political blog.