The Tories draw level with Labour but Miliband overtakes Cameron

Miliband's net satisfaction rating rises by 23 points in the latest Ipsos MORI poll but the Tories are now tied with Labour on 35%.

There's good and bad news for Ed Miliband in the latest Ipsos MORI political monitor. The good news is that his approval with his performance as Labour leader has surged since the conference season, with his net satisfaction rating rising by 23 points to -12, one point above Cameron's. That will reassure those Labour MPs who have long feared that Miliband's poor ratings could deny the party victory in 2015, although the test will be whether this bounce is sustained. 

But the bad news is that the party's poll lead has evaporated as voters give the Tories credit for the economic recovery (even if few are feeling the benefits). Support for Labour has fallen by two points to 35%, with the party now tied with the Conservatives for the first time since January 2012. While it's always impossible to say for certain why voters behave in the way they do, it is notable that the narrowing of Labour's poll lead (shown in all surveys) has coincided with a surge in economic optimism. MORI's poll shows that 42% believe that the economy will improve in the next 12 months, compared to 27% who believe it will get worse. 

There is some consolation for Miliband in the finding that his proposed energy price freeze is the most popular of all the policies announced during the conference season. But with growth likely to accelerate significantly next year, the fear in Labour will be that the Tories will continue to benefit. 

Ed Miliband with David Cameron during the service to celebrate the 60th anniversary of the Coronation of Queen Elizabeth II at Westminster Abbey. Photograph: Getty Images.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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I believe only Yvette Cooper has the breadth of support to beat Jeremy Corbyn

All the recent polling suggests Andy Burnham is losing more votes than anyone else to Jeremy Corbyn, says Diana Johnson MP.

Tom Blenkinsop MP on the New Statesman website today says he is giving his second preference to Andy Burnham as he thinks that Andy has the best chance of beating Jeremy.

This is on the basis that if Yvette goes out first all her second preferences will swing behind Andy, whereas if Andy goes out first then his second preferences, due to the broad alliance he has created behind his campaign, will all or largely switch to the other male candidate, Jeremy.

Let's take a deep breath and try and think through what will be the effect of preferential voting in the Labour leadership.

First of all, it is very difficult to know how second preferences will switch. From my telephone canvassing there is some rather interesting voting going on, but I don't accept that Tom’s analysis is correct. I have certainly picked up growing support for Yvette in recent weeks.

In fact you can argue the reverse of Tom’s analysis is true – Andy has moved further away from the centre and, as a result, his pitch to those like Tom who are supporting Liz first is now narrower. As a result, Yvette is more likely to pick up those second preferences.

Stats from the Yvette For Labour team show Yvette picking up the majority of second preferences from all candidates – from the Progress wing supporting Liz to the softer left fans of Jeremy – and Andy's supporters too. Their figures show many undecideds opting for Yvette as their first preference, as well as others choosing to switch their first preference to Yvette from one of the other candidates. It's for this reason I still believe only Yvette has the breadth of support to beat Jeremy and then to go on to win in 2020.

It's interesting that Andy has not been willing to make it clear that second preferences should go to Yvette or Liz. Yvette has been very clear that she would encourage second preferences to be for Andy or Liz.

Having watched Andy on Sky's Murnaghan show this morning, he categorically states that Labour will not get beyond first base with the electorate at a general election if we are not economically credible and that fundamentally Jeremy's economic plans do not add up. So, I am unsure why Andy is so unwilling to be clear on second preferences.

All the recent polling suggests Andy is losing more votes than anyone else to Jeremy. He trails fourth in London – where a huge proportion of our electorate is based.

So I would urge Tom to reflect more widely on who is best placed to provide the strongest opposition to the Tories, appeal to the widest group of voters and reach out to the communities we need to win back. I believe that this has to be Yvette.

The Newsnight focus group a few days ago showed that Yvette is best placed to win back those former Labour voters we will need in 2020.

Labour will pay a massive price if we ignore this.

Diana Johnson is the Labour MP for Hull North.