The Tories' cost of living offensive starts with a whimper

The pledge to cap rail fare increases at 6% is unlikely to impress commuters who have suffered 11 years of above-inflation rises.

At the Conservative conference last week, both David Cameron and George Osborne used their speeches to deride Ed Miliband's focus on the "cost-of-living crisis" on the grounds that it was a distraction from the primary task of 'fixing' the economy. But while doing so, the Tories have also recognised that the Labour leader is onto something. 

The day after Cameron's speech it was briefed that the party would soon launch a "blitz" on the cost of living and that Osborne had "identified water bills, rail fares and bank fees as areas where the government can act to help with household bills." After previously dismissing Miliband's proposed energy price freeze as "a gimmick", Cameron notably acknowledged on ITV's The Agenda that the Labour leader had "struck a chord" with the public. 

With real incomes not expected to rise until 2015 and not expected to return to their pre-crash levels until 2023, Tory MPs are rightly warning their leadership not to dismiss the living standards crisis as a temporary ailment that will pass now growth has returned. A recent ComRes survey found that voters think the Tories are more likely to maintain economic growth (42-33%) and to keep public spending under control (47-28%), but also that they believe their own family would be better off under Labour (41-31%). If one party takes a decisive advantage before 2015, it is likely to be that which wins the trust of the public on both issues.

The Tory fightback has begun today with the announcement that rail fare increases will be capped at 6%, with companies barred from raising individual fares by more than 2% above RPI inflation, rather than the current limit of 5% (provided that the average rise is 1% above inflation). Ministers say that the move could save commuters around £20 a month but with fares still set to rise above inflation for the eleventh year in a row (while average earnings fall for the sixth year in a row), it's rather small beer. Labour has been able to hit back by pointing out that the move doesn't go as far as its pledge to limit all fare increases to 1% above inflation and former transport secretary Andrew Adonis has noted that the cap is "less tight" than the one he imposed in 2009-10. 

The Tories are promising "week by week" announcements in the run-up to the Autumn Statement but they'll need to do better than this to wrest the initiative back from Miliband.

David Cameron leaves Number 10 Downing Street on October 7, 2013. Photograph: Getty Images.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

Photo: Getty
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Labour's purge: how it works, and what it means

The total number of people removed will be small - but the rancour will linger. 

Labour has just kicked off its first big wave of expulsions, purging many voters from the party’s leadership rolls. Twitter is ablaze with activists who believe they have been kicked out because they are supporters of Jeremy Corbyn. There are, I'm told, more expulsions to come - what's going on?  Is Labour purging its rolls of Corbyn supporters?

The short answer is “No”.

If that opener feels familiar, it should: I wrote it last year, when the last set of purges kicked off, and may end up using it again next year. Labour has stringent rules about expressing support for other candidates and membership of other parties, which account for the bulk of the expulsions. It also has a code of conduct on abusive language which is also thinning the rolls, with supporters of both candidates being kicked off. 

Although the party is in significantly better financial shape than last year, it still is running a skeleton staff and is recovering from an expensive contest (in this case, to keep Britain in the European Union). The compliance unit itself remains small, so once again people from across the party staff have been dragooned in.

The process this year is pretty much the same: Labour party headquarters doesn’t have any bespoke software to match its voters against a long list of candidates in local elections, compiled last year and added to the list of candidates that stood against Labour in the 2016 local and devolved elections, plus a large backlog of complaints from activists.

It’s that backlog that is behind many of the highest-profile and most controversial examples. Last year, in one complaint that was not upheld, a local member was reported to the Compliance Unit for their failure to attend their local party’s annual barbecue. The mood in Labour, in the country and at Westminster, is significantly more bitter this summer than last and the complaints more personal. Ronnie Draper, Ronnie Draper, the general secretary of the Bfawu, the bakers’ union, one of Corbyn’s biggest supporters in the trade union movement, has been expelled, reported for tweets which included the use of the word “traitors” to refer to Labour opponents of Corbyn.  Jon Will Chambers, former bag carrier to Stella Creasy, and a vocal Corbyn critic on Twitter, has been kicked out for using a “Theresa May” twibbon to indicate his preference for May over Andrea Leadsom, in contravention of the party’s rules.

Both activities breach the letter of the party’s rules although you can (and people will) make good arguments against empowering other people to comb through the social media profiles of their opponents for reasons to dob them in.  (In both cases, I wouldn’t be shocked if both complaints were struck down on appeal)

I would be frankly astonished if Corbyn’s margin of victory – or defeat, as unlikely as that remains in my view – isn’t significantly bigger than the number of people who are barred from voting, which will include supporters of both candidates, as well as a number of duplicates (some people who paid £25 were in fact members before the freeze date, others are affliated trade unionists, and so on). 

What is unarguably more significant, as one party staffer reflected is, “the complaints are nastier now [than last year]”. More and more of the messages to compliance are firmly in what you might call “the barbecue category” – they are obviously groundless and based on personal animosity. That doesn’t feel like the basis of a party that is ready to unite at any level. Publicly and privately, most people are still talking down the chances of a split. It may prove impossible to avoid.

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. He usually writes about politics.