The Lib Dems have enabled Labour and the Tories to pursue core vote strategies

Safe in the knowledge that Clegg will seek another coalition, the target for Labour and the Tories, in many ways, is just to beat the other party.

So according to George Eaton (who is my editor, so I’ll be careful what I say here), Labour leads polling on living standards, the Tories lead on the economy, and "the party that triumphs in 2015 will be that which seeks to address its weaknesses, rather than merely playing to its strengths". Funnily enough – it ain't necessarily so.
 
Now of course, as has been made abundantly clear by both the Labour and the Tories at their conferences, they want to win the next general election with an absolute majority. This is an easier hurdle for Labour to clear than the Tories, given the constituency boundaries, but both are clearly still dreaming of an end to the period of coalition government.
 
But they also know the trend is against them, with combined support for the two main parties falling consistently since the 1950s. Now, while it is the Lib Dems who have benefited most from this trend away from the two big parties, the current polling for the party hasn’t especially benefited Labour and the Tories, thanks mainly to the rise of UKIP.
 
This goes some way to explaining why both parties appear to be adopting core strategies to appeal to their traditional supporter base. This is, in many ways, the Reagan approach to campaigning – secure your base first, then build out from there. Both hope that, come 2015, they will have built up enough to deliver the majority they crave; but they also know they have a a fail-safe: the Lib Dems.
 
Therefore, in many ways, the target for Labour and the Tories is just to beat the other party, as provided they are the largest party – and the Lib Dem incumbency factor delivers the seats expected – that will be enough to get them over the line. It’s a bit like that joke about what to do if you’re being chased by a grizzly bear – either run very fast, or trip your friend.
 
This also explains why both parties are producing enough common ground policies for potential coalition negotiations as well as a few red lines.
 
Neither party will ever say publicly that they are 'expecting' to form a coalition. But shoring up their core support probably means that’s where they’ll end up. For currently it seems people are convinced one party stands for a stronger economy, the other for a fairer society If only there was a party that promised both….
 
Richard Morris blogs at A View From Ham Common, which was named Best New Blog at the 2011 Lib Dem Conference
Nick Clegg speaks at the Liberal Democrat conference in Glasgow last month. Photograph: Getty Images.

Richard Morris blogs at A View From Ham Common, which was named Best New Blog at the 2011 Lib Dem Conference

Ukip's Nigel Farage and Paul Nuttall. Photo: Getty
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Is the general election 2017 the end of Ukip?

Ukip led the way to Brexit, but now the party is on less than 10 per cent in the polls. 

Ukip could be finished. Ukip has only ever had two MPs, but it held an outside influence on politics: without it, we’d probably never have had the EU referendum. But Brexit has turned Ukip into a single-issue party without an issue. Ukip’s sole remaining MP, Douglas Carswell, left the party in March 2017, and told Sky News’ Adam Boulton that there was “no point” to the party anymore. 

Not everyone in Ukip has given up, though: Nigel Farage told Peston on Sunday that Ukip “will survive”, and current leader Paul Nuttall will be contesting a seat this year. But Ukip is standing in fewer constituencies than last time thanks to a shortage of both money and people. Who benefits if Ukip is finished? It’s likely to be the Tories. 

Is Ukip finished? 

What are Ukip's poll ratings?

Ukip’s poll ratings peaked in June 2016 at 16 per cent. Since the leave campaign’s success, that has steadily declined so that Ukip is going into the 2017 general election on 4 per cent, according to the latest polls. If the polls can be trusted, that’s a serious collapse.

Can Ukip get anymore MPs?

In the 2015 general election Ukip contested nearly every seat and got 13 per cent of the vote, making it the third biggest party (although is only returned one MP). Now Ukip is reportedly struggling to find candidates and could stand in as few as 100 seats. Ukip leader Paul Nuttall will stand in Boston and Skegness, but both ex-leader Nigel Farage and donor Arron Banks have ruled themselves out of running this time.

How many members does Ukip have?

Ukip’s membership declined from 45,994 at the 2015 general election to 39,000 in 2016. That’s a worrying sign for any political party, which relies on grassroots memberships to put in the campaigning legwork.

What does Ukip's decline mean for Labour and the Conservatives? 

The rise of Ukip took votes from both the Conservatives and Labour, with a nationalist message that appealed to disaffected voters from both right and left. But the decline of Ukip only seems to be helping the Conservatives. Stephen Bush has written about how in Wales voting Ukip seems to have been a gateway drug for traditional Labour voters who are now backing the mainstream right; so the voters Ukip took from the Conservatives are reverting to the Conservatives, and the ones they took from Labour are transferring to the Conservatives too.

Ukip might be finished as an electoral force, but its influence on the rest of British politics will be felt for many years yet. 

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