The Lib Dems have enabled Labour and the Tories to pursue core vote strategies

Safe in the knowledge that Clegg will seek another coalition, the target for Labour and the Tories, in many ways, is just to beat the other party.

So according to George Eaton (who is my editor, so I’ll be careful what I say here), Labour leads polling on living standards, the Tories lead on the economy, and "the party that triumphs in 2015 will be that which seeks to address its weaknesses, rather than merely playing to its strengths". Funnily enough – it ain't necessarily so.
 
Now of course, as has been made abundantly clear by both the Labour and the Tories at their conferences, they want to win the next general election with an absolute majority. This is an easier hurdle for Labour to clear than the Tories, given the constituency boundaries, but both are clearly still dreaming of an end to the period of coalition government.
 
But they also know the trend is against them, with combined support for the two main parties falling consistently since the 1950s. Now, while it is the Lib Dems who have benefited most from this trend away from the two big parties, the current polling for the party hasn’t especially benefited Labour and the Tories, thanks mainly to the rise of UKIP.
 
This goes some way to explaining why both parties appear to be adopting core strategies to appeal to their traditional supporter base. This is, in many ways, the Reagan approach to campaigning – secure your base first, then build out from there. Both hope that, come 2015, they will have built up enough to deliver the majority they crave; but they also know they have a a fail-safe: the Lib Dems.
 
Therefore, in many ways, the target for Labour and the Tories is just to beat the other party, as provided they are the largest party – and the Lib Dem incumbency factor delivers the seats expected – that will be enough to get them over the line. It’s a bit like that joke about what to do if you’re being chased by a grizzly bear – either run very fast, or trip your friend.
 
This also explains why both parties are producing enough common ground policies for potential coalition negotiations as well as a few red lines.
 
Neither party will ever say publicly that they are 'expecting' to form a coalition. But shoring up their core support probably means that’s where they’ll end up. For currently it seems people are convinced one party stands for a stronger economy, the other for a fairer society If only there was a party that promised both….
 
Richard Morris blogs at A View From Ham Common, which was named Best New Blog at the 2011 Lib Dem Conference
Nick Clegg speaks at the Liberal Democrat conference in Glasgow last month. Photograph: Getty Images.

Richard Morris blogs at A View From Ham Common, which was named Best New Blog at the 2011 Lib Dem Conference

Photo: Getty
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Rising crime and fewer police show the most damaging impacts of austerity

We need to protect those who protect us.

Today’s revelation that police-recorded crime has risen by 10 per cent across England and Wales shows one of the most damaging impacts of austerity. Behind the cold figures are countless stories of personal misery; 723 homicides, 466,018 crimes with violence resulting in injury, and 205,869 domestic burglaries to take just a few examples.

It is crucial that politicians of all parties seek to address this rising level of violence and offer solutions to halt the increase in violent crime. I challenge any Tory to defend the idea that their constituents are best served by a continued squeeze on police budgets, when the number of officers is already at the lowest level for more than 30 years.

This week saw the launch Chris Bryant's Protect The Protectors Private Member’s Bill, which aims to secure greater protections for emergency service workers. It carries on where my attempts in the last parliament left off, and could not come at a more important time. Cuts to the number of police officers on our streets have not only left our communities less safe, but officers themselves are now more vulnerable as well.

As an MP I work closely with the local neighbourhood policing teams in my constituency of Halifax. There is some outstanding work going on to address the underlying causes of crime, to tackle antisocial behaviour, and to build trust and engagement across communities. I am always amazed that neighbourhood police officers seem to know the name of every kid in their patch. However cuts to West Yorkshire Police, which have totalled more than £160m since 2010, have meant that the number of neighbourhood officers in my district has been cut by half in the last year, as the budget squeeze continues and more resources are drawn into counter-terrorism and other specialisms .

Overall, West Yorkshire Police have seen a loss of around 1,200 officers. West Yorkshire Police Federation chairman Nick Smart is clear about the result: "To say it’s had no effect on frontline policing is just a nonsense.” Yet for years the Conservatives have argued just this, with the Prime Minister recently telling MPs that crime was at a record low, and ministers frequently arguing that the changing nature of crime means that the number of officers is a poor measure of police effectiveness. These figures today completely debunk that myth.

Constituents are also increasingly coming to me with concerns that crimes are not investigated once they are reported. Where the police simply do not have the resources to follow-up and attend or investigate crimes, communities lose faith and the criminals grow in confidence.

A frequently overlooked part of this discussion is that the demands on police have increased hugely, often in some unexpected ways. A clear example of this is that cuts in our mental health services have resulted in police officers having to deal with mental health issues in the custody suite. While on shift with the police last year, I saw how an average night included a series of people detained under the Mental Health Act. Due to a lack of specialist beds, vulnerable patients were held in a police cell, or even in the back of a police car, for their own safety. We should all be concerned that the police are becoming a catch-all for the state’s failures.

While the politically charged campaign to restore police numbers is ongoing, Protect The Protectors is seeking to build cross-party support for measures that would offer greater protections to officers immediately. In February, the Police Federation of England and Wales released the results of its latest welfare survey data which suggest that there were more than two million unarmed physical assaults on officers over a 12-month period, and a further 302,842 assaults using a deadly weapon.

This is partly due to an increase in single crewing, which sees officers sent out on their own into often hostile circumstances. Morale in the police has suffered hugely in recent years and almost every front-line officer will be able to recall a time when they were recently assaulted.

If we want to tackle this undeniable rise in violent crime, then a large part of the solution is protecting those who protect us; strengthening the law to keep them from harm where possible, restoring morale by removing the pay cap, and most importantly, increasing their numbers.

Holly Lynch is the MP for Halifax. The Protect the Protectors bill will get its second reading on the Friday 20th October. 

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