Labour reshuffle: Miliband has rewarded the outriders for his project

Tristram Hunt and Gloria De Piero, two notionally "Blairite" figures, distinguished themselves by engaging with Miliband's political and ideological themes.

Ever since his election as Labour leader in 2010, Ed Miliband has often appeared a lonely figure. Few of his original shadow cabinet voted for him and many have seemed reluctant to engage with the defining themes of his leadership such as "responsible capitalism", "predistribution" and "one nation". 

"I am my own outrider," he has often privately remarked with a mixture of pride and regret. But one of the aims of the reshuffle was to ensure that this is no longer the case. Rather than punishing "the Blairites", as the Tories would have it, Miliband rewarded those who have engaged with his political and ideological project. It is notable that both Tristram Hunt (promoted to shadow education secretary) and Gloria De Piero (promoted to shadow minister for women and equalities) contributed chapters to the recent book One Nation: power, hope, community, regarded in the party as the founding text of the Milibandites. While notionally "Blairite" figures (who voted for David in the 2010 leadership contest), they have sought to give greater definition to his intellectual themes. Expect promotions for other contributors such as Dan Jarvis, Rushanara Ali and Kate Green when Miliband reshuffles his junior shadow ministerial team today. 

At the same time, the Labour leader rewarded his original supporters for their loyalty. Rachel Reeves was promoted from shadow chief secretary to the Treasury to shadow work and pensions secretary, Sadiq Khan, his leadership campaign manager, remained shadow justice secretary (the post he has held since 2010 and to which he is committed) and Hilary Benn, whose alleged lethargy had prompted calls for his removal, was left in place as shadow communities secretary. 

One final point worth noting is that "the Blairites" - Stephen Twigg, Liam Byrne and Jim Murphy - all chose to accept demotions, rather than leaving the shadow cabinet and seeking to wield influence on the backbenches. That is an acknowledgement of Miliband's significantly strengthened position. Over the summer he often appeared desperately weak; in office but not in power. But after defining the conference season, he wields new authority. By remaining in the tent, these big beasts have signalled their confidence that Labour can win the next election and that they will serve in Miliband's team. 

Newly appointed Labour shadow cabinet ministers Gloria de Piero, Tristram Hunt and Emma Reynolds take part in a photocall in London yesterday. Photograph: Getty Images.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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Leave will leap on the immigration rise, but Brexit would not make much difference

Non-EU migration is still well above the immigration cap, which the government is still far from reaching. 

On announcing the quarterly migration figures today, the Office for National Statistics was clear: neither the change in immigration levels, nor in emigration levels, nor in the net figure is statistically significant. That will not stop them being mined for political significance.

The ONS reports a 20,000 rise in net long-term international migration to 333,000. This is fuelled by a reduction in emigration: immigration itself is actually down very slightly (by 2,000) on the year ending in 2014, but emigration has fallen further – by 22,000.

So here is the (limited) short-term significance of that. The Leave campaign has already decided to pivot to immigration for the final month of the referendum campaign. Arguments about the NHS, about sovereignty, and about the bloated bureaucracy in Brussels have all had some utility with different constituencies. But none has as much purchase, especially amongst persuadable Labour voters in the north, as immigration. So the Leave campaign will keep talking about immigration and borders for a month, and hope that a renewed refugee crisis will for enough people turn a latent fear into a present threat.

These statistics make adopting that theme a little bit easier. While it has long been accepted by everyone except David Cameron and Theresa May that the government’s desired net immigration cap of 100,000 per year is unattainable, watch out for Brexiters using these figures as proof that it is the EU that denies the government the ability to meet it.

But there are plenty of available avenues for the Remain campaign to push back against such arguments. Firstly, they will point out that this is a net figure. Sure, freedom of movement means the British government does not have a say over EU nationals arriving here, but it is not Jean-Claude Juncker’s fault if people who live in the UK decide they quite like it here.

Moreover, the only statistically significant change the ONS identify is a 42 per cent rise in migrants coming to the UK “looking for work” – hardly signalling the benefit tourism of caricature. And though that cohort did not come with jobs, the majority (58 per cent) of the 308,000 migrants who came to Britain to work in 2015 had a definite job to go to.

The Remain campaign may also point out that the 241,000 short-term migrants to the UK in the year ending June 2014 were far outstripped by the 420,000 Brits working abroad. Brexit, and any end to freedom of movement that it entailed, could jeopardise many of those jobs for Brits.

There is another story that the Remain campaign should make use of. Yes, the immigration cap is a joke. But it has not (just) been made into a joke by the EU. Net migration from non-EU countries is at 188,000, a very slight fall from the previous year but still higher than immigration from EU countries. That alone is far above the government’s immigration cap. If the government cannot bring down non-EU migration, then the Leave argument that a post-EU Britain would be a low-immigration panacea is hardly credible. Don’t expect that to stop them making it though. 

Henry Zeffman writes about politics and is the winner of the Anthony Howard Award 2015.