Scottish independence poll puts Yes campaign in front

For the first time since August 2011, the nationalist side takes the lead by 44 to 43 per cent.

Until recently, every poll on Scottish independence since the beginning of 2012 had shown the No campaign in front, usually by a double-digit margin. But that trend ended today with the publication of a new Panelbase survey putting the Yes camp ahead by 44 to 43 per cent, the first time the nationalist side has led in a poll since August 2011. 

The poll was commissioned by the SNP and, as I've noted before, it's always wise to be sceptical of polls published by political parties, principally because the questions asked are often biased in favour of a particular outcome. But on the surface at least, there appear to be no oddities. 

Those polled between 23-28 August (the sample size was a respectable 1,043) were asked "There will be a referendum on an independent Scotland on 18th of September 2014. How do you intend to vote in response to the question: Should Scotland be an independent country?" In response, 44 per cent answered "Yes" (up seven points since the last Panelbase poll in July 2013) and 43 per cent answered "No" (down three points), with 13 per cent undecided. 

It's a stunning result for the SNP, and entirely at odds with the most recent YouGov poll (carried out a week earlier), which put the No campaign ahead by a record 30 points (59-29). Until other polls are published showing the nationalist side ahead, it's wise to treat survey with caution (lest it prove to be an outlier) but after months of setbacks, the result will be cited by Alex Salmond as proof of his recent claim in the New Statesman that the polls will shift in his favour as the referendum draws closer. He told Jason Cowley: "This is the phoney war. This is not the campaign. I went into an election [for the Scottish Parliament] in 2011 20 points behind in the polls and ended up 15 in front. The real game hasn’t even started. We are just clearing the ground."

In an encouraging precedent for Salmond, Panelbase was the first polling company to put the SNP ahead in the 2011 Scottish parliamentary election. US polling oracle Nate Silver, who recently declared that there's "virtually no chance that the Yes side will win", is unlikely to be losing any sleep yet, but for the first time in more than two years, Salmond can point to some evidence that the battle is far from over. 

Update: Having looked at the full tables for the survey, it's now clear what might explain the anomalous result. Those polled were first asked whether they thought Scotland could be "a successful, independent country" and whether they trusted the Scottish government or Westminster to take "the best decisions for Scotland". It's likely that both questions nudged people towards supporting independence in the final question. All the more reason, as I said before, to treat the result with caution. 

Scottish First Minister and SNP leader Alex Salmond with David Cameron at the men's Wimbledon final earlier this year. Photograph: Getty Images.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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Who is in Jeremy Corbyn's new shadow cabinet?

Folllowing the resignation of over a dozen MPs, Jeremy Corbyn has begun appointing a new front bench.

Following an attempted coup over the weekend, Jeremy Corbyn has begun forming his new shadow cabinet, appointing MPs to replace the numerous front bench resignations that have taken place over the last 24 hours.

The cabinet is notable for containing a relatively large proportion of MPs from the 2015 intake, many of whom were also among the 36 MPs who nominated Corbyn as a leadership candidate last year. 

Emily Thornberry

Shadow Foreign Secretary

Thornberry, a former human rights barrister, served under Ed Miliband as shadow attorney general until she resigned in 2014 following a “snobbish” tweet about an England flag sent on the day of the Rochester by-election. The MP for Islington South since 2005, she returned to the shadow cabinet in 2010 as Jeremy Corbyn’s shadow employment minister, and then helped him out of a difficult position by accepting the position of shadow defence secretary in the January 2016 reshuffle after a spat between her predecessor, Angela Eagle, and Ken Livingstone.

Diane Abbott

Shadow Health Secretary

Diane Abbott, known for her forthright interventions on a wide variety of subjects as well as her zany appearances on the This Week sofa with Michael Portillo, has held a health brief before – she was shadow minister for public health under Ed Miliband (although she was sacked in 2013, saying “Ed wanted more message discipline”). A long-time ally of Corbyn’s – they had a brief relationship in the 1970s – she nominated him for the leadership and accepted the post of shadow international development secretary upon his victory in September 2015.

Pat Glass

Shadow Education Secretary

Pat Glass, a former Labour councillor in the north-east, was elected to parliament for North West Durham in 2010. She was initially appointed shadow education minister in September 2015 when Jeremy Corbyn first formed his shadow cabinet, and was then reshuffled to shadow Europe in January 2016. She now returns to her old brief.

Andy McDonald

Shadow Transport Secretary 

McDonald entered parliament in 2012 after the by-election following Stuart Bell’s death. He served Emily Thornbery as PPS from 2013, and then joined the shadow cabinet in January 2016 to replace Jonathan Reynolds as shadow minister for rail (Reynolds resigned in protest after Corbyn sacked Pat McFadden).

Clive Lewis

Shadow Defence Secretary

Clive Lewis is part of the 2015 intake, and has been a vocal supporter of Jeremy Corbyn. He was appointed shadow energy minister in September 2015, and has been staunch in his opposition to Trident renewal. He has military experience, having done a three-month combat tour of Afghanistan in 2009.

Rebecca Long-Bailey

Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury

Rebecca Long-Bailey is MP for Salford and Eccles elected in 2015. She previously worked as a solicitor, and was given the backing of Unite and Salford’s elected mayor Ian Stewart when she decided to run for parliament.

Long-Bailey was one of the MPs who nominated Corbyn for the leadership in 2015. After winning the leadership, Corbyn used her to replace Hilary Benn on Labour’s NEC.

Kate Osamor

Shadow International Development Secretary

Kate Osamor is the MP for Edmonton, also elected in 2015. She is Labour Co-operative politician, and was previously a GP practice manager.

Osamor also nominated Corbyn for leader. In January, she was made Shadow Minister for Women and Equalities.

Read a profile with Osamor from last year.

Rachael Maskell

Shadow Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Secretary

Rachael Maskell is the MP for York Central, elected in 2015. Before becoming an MP, she was a care-worker and physiotherapist in the NHS. She is committed to improving mental health services and has served on the Health Select Committee since July.

Until recently, she worked on the Shadow Defence Team under Maria Eagle.

Cat Smith

Shadow Voter Engagement and Youth Affairs

Cat Smith has been the MP for Lancaster and Fleetwood since 2015. Prfeviously Shadow Minister for Women, Smith worked for Corbyn before entering parliament, and was one of the 36 MPs to nominate him for the leadership in 2016.

Lancashire Constabulary are currently investigating allegations that Smith breached spending limits on election campaigning.

Dave Anderson

Shadow Northern Ireland Secretary

Dave Anderson has been the MP for Blaydon since 2005. He worked as a miner until 1989 and then subsequently as a care worker, during which time he was also an activist in UNISON.

He has been a member of the Northern Ireland Affairs Committee since 2005, with a longstanding interest in the Peace Process. In early 2015, Anderson was one of the signatories of an open letter to then leader Ed Miliband calling on Labour to oppose authority and renationalise the railways.