Labour wins a conference poll bounce as its lead rises from five points to nine

Around half of the survey took place before Miliband's speech but Labour is already seeing the benefits from its time in Brighton.

Party conferences are among the few political events that can have a direct effect on the polls (most voters usually aren't paying attention) and it looks like Labour has alread benefited from its time in Brighton. 

The latest YouGov poll shows that the party's lead has risen from five points to nine, with Labour up two to 41%, the Tories down two to 32%, UKIP unchanged on 11% and the Lib Dems down two to 8%. Significantly, nearly half of the fieldwork took place before Ed Miliband's speech and its accompanying pledge to freeze energy prices until 2017, suggesting that the party could enjoy a further bounce in today's survey.

Another poll by YouGov found that voters view energy prices as the greatest threat to the economy, ranking them ahead of unemployment, benefit levels, inflation, interest rates and income taxes. A report due to be published by the pollster next week, entitled Utilities - Tariffs and Loyalty, found that 83% of UK customers believe that "energy suppliers maximise profits at the expense of customers", with only 2% disagreeing. In addition, 56% agree that "energy companies treat people with contempt", with only 7% disagreeing. 

There's also some good news for Miliband. The number viewing him as the best potential prime minister has risen from 21% at the start of September to 26%, although Cameron retains a commanding lead of nine points. 

It's common for poll ratings to fluctuate more than the usual during the conference season and the real test will be whether Labour can maintain its lead into next week. If the Conservative conference ends with Miliband's party ahead, some Tories will begin to worry that the Labour leader's "populism" is proving, well, popular. 

Ed Miliband speaks during a question and answer session yesterday at the Labour conference in Brighton. Photograph: Getty Images.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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Leave will leap on the immigration rise, but Brexit would not make much difference

Non-EU migration is still well above the immigration cap, which the government is still far from reaching. 

On announcing the quarterly migration figures today, the Office for National Statistics was clear: neither the change in immigration levels, nor in emigration levels, nor in the net figure is statistically significant. That will not stop them being mined for political significance.

The ONS reports a 20,000 rise in net long-term international migration to 333,000. This is fuelled by a reduction in emigration: immigration itself is actually down very slightly (by 2,000) on the year ending in 2014, but emigration has fallen further – by 22,000.

So here is the (limited) short-term significance of that. The Leave campaign has already decided to pivot to immigration for the final month of the referendum campaign. Arguments about the NHS, about sovereignty, and about the bloated bureaucracy in Brussels have all had some utility with different constituencies. But none has as much purchase, especially amongst persuadable Labour voters in the north, as immigration. So the Leave campaign will keep talking about immigration and borders for a month, and hope that a renewed refugee crisis will for enough people turn a latent fear into a present threat.

These statistics make adopting that theme a little bit easier. While it has long been accepted by everyone except David Cameron and Theresa May that the government’s desired net immigration cap of 100,000 per year is unattainable, watch out for Brexiters using these figures as proof that it is the EU that denies the government the ability to meet it.

But there are plenty of available avenues for the Remain campaign to push back against such arguments. Firstly, they will point out that this is a net figure. Sure, freedom of movement means the British government does not have a say over EU nationals arriving here, but it is not Jean-Claude Juncker’s fault if people who live in the UK decide they quite like it here.

Moreover, the only statistically significant change the ONS identify is a 42 per cent rise in migrants coming to the UK “looking for work” – hardly signalling the benefit tourism of caricature. And though that cohort did not come with jobs, the majority (58 per cent) of the 308,000 migrants who came to Britain to work in 2015 had a definite job to go to.

The Remain campaign may also point out that the 241,000 short-term migrants to the UK in the year ending June 2014 were far outstripped by the 420,000 Brits working abroad. Brexit, and any end to freedom of movement that it entailed, could jeopardise many of those jobs for Brits.

There is another story that the Remain campaign should make use of. Yes, the immigration cap is a joke. But it has not (just) been made into a joke by the EU. Net migration from non-EU countries is at 188,000, a very slight fall from the previous year but still higher than immigration from EU countries. That alone is far above the government’s immigration cap. If the government cannot bring down non-EU migration, then the Leave argument that a post-EU Britain would be a low-immigration panacea is hardly credible. Don’t expect that to stop them making it though. 

Henry Zeffman writes about politics and is the winner of the Anthony Howard Award 2015.