Syria: the Labour rebels who voted against Miliband

Six Labour MPs voted against the party's amendment on the grounds that it failed to rule out military action. How many shadow ministers would have resigned?

Though largely unnoticed after the government's extraordinary defeat last night (as I noted earlier, no prime minister has been defeated on a matter of peace and war since 1782), Ed Miliband suffered his own rebellion over Syria. 

There were six Labour MPs who voted against Miliband's amendment on the grounds that it failed to rule out military action. They were: Ronnie Campbell, Jim Fitzpatrick, Stephen Hepburn, Siân C. James, Grahame M. Morris and Graham Stringer. 

A few hours before the vote, Fitzpatrick resigned from his position as shadow transport minister. During the debate he had warned that he had "problems" with the government motion and Labour's amendment since neither ruled out military action and was "opposed to military intervention in Syria, full stop."

An interesting hypothetical is how many would have followed him if Miliband had eventually supported military intervention. One party source told me earlier that around five were prepared to do so. But fortunately for Miliband, Cameron's decision to immediately take military action off the table (he could have offered to work with Labour to secure a majority for Miliband's amendment) means he'll never have to find out. 

Stop the War protesters demonstrate outside Parliament during yesterday's debate on military action against Syria. Photograph: Getty Images.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

Ukip's Nigel Farage and Paul Nuttall. Photo: Getty
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Is the general election 2017 the end of Ukip?

Ukip led the way to Brexit, but now the party is on less than 10 per cent in the polls. 

Ukip could be finished. Ukip has only ever had two MPs, but it held an outside influence on politics: without it, we’d probably never have had the EU referendum. But Brexit has turned Ukip into a single-issue party without an issue. Ukip’s sole remaining MP, Douglas Carswell, left the party in March 2017, and told Sky News’ Adam Boulton that there was “no point” to the party anymore. 

Not everyone in Ukip has given up, though: Nigel Farage told Peston on Sunday that Ukip “will survive”, and current leader Paul Nuttall will be contesting a seat this year. But Ukip is standing in fewer constituencies than last time thanks to a shortage of both money and people. Who benefits if Ukip is finished? It’s likely to be the Tories. 

Is Ukip finished? 

What are Ukip's poll ratings?

Ukip’s poll ratings peaked in June 2016 at 16 per cent. Since the leave campaign’s success, that has steadily declined so that Ukip is going into the 2017 general election on 4 per cent, according to the latest polls. If the polls can be trusted, that’s a serious collapse.

Can Ukip get anymore MPs?

In the 2015 general election Ukip contested nearly every seat and got 13 per cent of the vote, making it the third biggest party (although is only returned one MP). Now Ukip is reportedly struggling to find candidates and could stand in as few as 100 seats. Ukip leader Paul Nuttall will stand in Boston and Skegness, but both ex-leader Nigel Farage and donor Arron Banks have ruled themselves out of running this time.

How many members does Ukip have?

Ukip’s membership declined from 45,994 at the 2015 general election to 39,000 in 2016. That’s a worrying sign for any political party, which relies on grassroots memberships to put in the campaigning legwork.

What does Ukip's decline mean for Labour and the Conservatives? 

The rise of Ukip took votes from both the Conservatives and Labour, with a nationalist message that appealed to disaffected voters from both right and left. But the decline of Ukip only seems to be helping the Conservatives. Stephen Bush has written about how in Wales voting Ukip seems to have been a gateway drug for traditional Labour voters who are now backing the mainstream right; so the voters Ukip took from the Conservatives are reverting to the Conservatives, and the ones they took from Labour are transferring to the Conservatives too.

Ukip might be finished as an electoral force, but its influence on the rest of British politics will be felt for many years yet. 

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