Syria: the Labour rebels who voted against Miliband

Six Labour MPs voted against the party's amendment on the grounds that it failed to rule out military action. How many shadow ministers would have resigned?

Though largely unnoticed after the government's extraordinary defeat last night (as I noted earlier, no prime minister has been defeated on a matter of peace and war since 1782), Ed Miliband suffered his own rebellion over Syria. 

There were six Labour MPs who voted against Miliband's amendment on the grounds that it failed to rule out military action. They were: Ronnie Campbell, Jim Fitzpatrick, Stephen Hepburn, Siân C. James, Grahame M. Morris and Graham Stringer. 

A few hours before the vote, Fitzpatrick resigned from his position as shadow transport minister. During the debate he had warned that he had "problems" with the government motion and Labour's amendment since neither ruled out military action and was "opposed to military intervention in Syria, full stop."

An interesting hypothetical is how many would have followed him if Miliband had eventually supported military intervention. One party source told me earlier that around five were prepared to do so. But fortunately for Miliband, Cameron's decision to immediately take military action off the table (he could have offered to work with Labour to secure a majority for Miliband's amendment) means he'll never have to find out. 

Stop the War protesters demonstrate outside Parliament during yesterday's debate on military action against Syria. Photograph: Getty Images.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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Voters are turning against Brexit but the Lib Dems aren't benefiting

Labour's pro-Brexit stance is not preventing it from winning the support of Remainers. Will that change?

More than a year after the UK voted for Brexit, there has been little sign of buyer's remorse. The public, including around a third of Remainers, are largely of the view that the government should "get on with it".

But as real wages are squeezed (owing to the Brexit-linked inflationary spike) there are tentative signs that the mood is changing. In the event of a second referendum, an Opinium/Observer poll found, 47 per cent would vote Remain, compared to 44 per cent for Leave. Support for a repeat vote is also increasing. Forty one per cent of the public now favour a second referendum (with 48 per cent opposed), compared to 33 per cent last December. 

The Liberal Democrats have made halting Brexit their raison d'être. But as public opinion turns, there is no sign they are benefiting. Since the election, Vince Cable's party has yet to exceed single figures in the polls, scoring a lowly 6 per cent in the Opinium survey (down from 7.4 per cent at the election). 

What accounts for this disparity? After their near-extinction in 2015, the Lib Dems remain either toxic or irrelevant to many voters. Labour, by contrast, despite its pro-Brexit stance, has hoovered up Remainers (55 per cent back Jeremy Corbyn's party). 

In some cases, this reflects voters' other priorities. Remainers are prepared to support Labour on account of the party's stances on austerity, housing and education. Corbyn, meanwhile, is a eurosceptic whose internationalism and pro-migration reputation endear him to EU supporters. Other Remainers rewarded Labour MPs who voted against Article 50, rebelling against the leadership's stance. 

But the trend also partly reflects ignorance. By saying little on the subject of Brexit, Corbyn and Labour allowed Remainers to assume the best. Though there is little evidence that voters will abandon Corbyn over his EU stance, the potential exists.

For this reason, the proposal of a new party will continue to recur. By challenging Labour over Brexit, without the toxicity of Lib Dems, it would sharpen the choice before voters. Though it would not win an election, a new party could force Corbyn to soften his stance on Brexit or to offer a second referendum (mirroring Ukip's effect on the Conservatives).

The greatest problem for the project is that it lacks support where it counts: among MPs. For reasons of tribalism and strategy, there is no emergent "Gang of Four" ready to helm a new party. In the absence of a new convulsion, the UK may turn against Brexit without the anti-Brexiteers benefiting. 

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.