The case for Labour to pledge to scrap HS2 is growing

A promise to cancel the project, which could cost up to £80bn, and invest the savings in more electorally popular policies is just the kind of gamechanger that Miliband needs for the conference season.

Today's Institute of Economic Affairs report suggesting that the cost of High Speed 2 could reach £80bn (it was officially revised up from £30bn to £42.6bn last month) will strengthen the hand of the growing number in Labour who argue that the party should come out against the project. Peter Mandelson (who described it as an "expensive mistake") and John Prescott have both urged Ed Miliband to do so and Alistair Darling (a self-declared "HS2 sceptic") has warned that an "awful lot of things" are wrong with it.

Ed Balls, who recently remarked, "We need to keep a close eye on value for money. I am concerned about the rising costs", is sympathetic to their position. A pledge to cancel HS2 would free up billions for more electorally popular policies (such as a mass house building programme) and reduce the need for higher borrowing and tax rises. It would also split the Tories down the middle, ending what has become a sustained period of Conservative unity.

But Ed Miliband remains personally supportive of the project and HS2 evangelist Andrew Adonis, the party's shadow infrastructure minister, who Miliband recently appointed to lead a growth review, is also determined to prevent any backsliding. However, with his recent pledge to remove winter fuel payments from wealthy pensioners and to introduce an opt-in system for trade union funding, Miliband has shown that he is willing to revise long-standing positions when political conditions demand it. A promise to cancel HS2 and invest the savings in more valuable projects is just the kind of gamechanger that he needs for the conference season.

A placard placed by the Stop HS2 Campaign sits in a hedegrow near to the planned location of the new high speed rail link in Knutsford. Photograph: Getty Images.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

Getty
Show Hide image

Will Jeremy Corbyn stand down if Labour loses the general election?

Defeat at the polls might not be the end of Corbyn’s leadership.

The latest polls suggest that Labour is headed for heavy defeat in the June general election. Usually a general election loss would be the trigger for a leader to quit: Michael Foot, Gordon Brown and Ed Miliband all stood down after their first defeat, although Neil Kinnock saw out two losses before resigning in 1992.

It’s possible, if unlikely, that Corbyn could become prime minister. If that prospect doesn’t materialise, however, the question is: will Corbyn follow the majority of his predecessors and resign, or will he hang on in office?

Will Corbyn stand down? The rules

There is no formal process for the parliamentary Labour party to oust its leader, as it discovered in the 2016 leadership challenge. Even after a majority of his MPs had voted no confidence in him, Corbyn stayed on, ultimately winning his second leadership contest after it was decided that the current leader should be automatically included on the ballot.

This year’s conference will vote on to reform the leadership selection process that would make it easier for a left-wing candidate to get on the ballot (nicknamed the “McDonnell amendment” by centrists): Corbyn could be waiting for this motion to pass before he resigns.

Will Corbyn stand down? The membership

Corbyn’s support in the membership is still strong. Without an equally compelling candidate to put before the party, Corbyn’s opponents in the PLP are unlikely to initiate another leadership battle they’re likely to lose.

That said, a general election loss could change that. Polling from March suggests that half of Labour members wanted Corbyn to stand down either immediately or before the general election.

Will Corbyn stand down? The rumours

Sources close to Corbyn have said that he might not stand down, even if he leads Labour to a crushing defeat this June. They mention Kinnock’s survival after the 1987 general election as a precedent (although at the 1987 election, Labour did gain seats).

Will Corbyn stand down? The verdict

Given his struggles to manage his own MPs and the example of other leaders, it would be remarkable if Corbyn did not stand down should Labour lose the general election. However, staying on after a vote of no-confidence in 2016 was also remarkable, and the mooted changes to the leadership election process give him a reason to hold on until September in order to secure a left-wing succession.

0800 7318496