Labour hopes to defeat Caroline Lucas after dramatic local by-election win in Brighton

The party celebrates after winning a seat off the Greens in one of the safest wards in Lucas's constituency.

There was a dramatic local by-election result in Brighton last night, where Labour won a seat off the Greens in the Hanover and Elm Grove Ward, one of the safest in Caroline Lucas's constituency. The party's Emma Daniel took the seat by just 38 votes (1,396 to 1,358) but this represented a huge swing of 11.7% since 2011.

It would be a mistake to read much into the result, a reflection of local discontent with the Green council, which Lucas herself has protested against in response to pay cuts. But it is a reminder that there is no guarantee she will keep her seat in 2015. Lucas currently has a majority of 1,252 (2.4%), with Labour, which held the constituency between 1997 and 2010, in second place. 

Brighton Pavilion is one of Labour's 106 target seats (the 19th most marginal on the list) and with a hung parliament looking increasingly likely, the party has no intention of giving her a free run.

Caroline Lucas became the first Green MP when she won Brighton Pavilion at the 2010 general election.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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How Theresa May laid a trap for herself on the immigration target

When Home Secretary, she insisted on keeping foreign students in the figures – causing a headache for herself today.

When Home Secretary, Theresa May insisted that foreign students should continue to be counted in the overall immigration figures. Some cabinet colleagues, including then Business Secretary Vince Cable and Chancellor George Osborne wanted to reverse this. It was economically illiterate. Current ministers, like the Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson, Chancellor Philip Hammond and Home Secretary Amber Rudd, also want foreign students exempted from the total.

David Cameron’s government aimed to cut immigration figures – including overseas students in that aim meant trying to limit one of the UK’s crucial financial resources. They are worth £25bn to the UK economy, and their fees make up 14 per cent of total university income. And the impact is not just financial – welcoming foreign students is diplomatically and culturally key to Britain’s reputation and its relationship with the rest of the world too. Even more important now Brexit is on its way.

But they stayed in the figures – a situation that, along with counterproductive visa restrictions also introduced by May’s old department, put a lot of foreign students off studying here. For example, there has been a 44 per cent decrease in the number of Indian students coming to Britain to study in the last five years.

Now May’s stubbornness on the migration figures appears to have caught up with her. The Times has revealed that the Prime Minister is ready to “soften her longstanding opposition to taking foreign students out of immigration totals”. It reports that she will offer to change the way the numbers are calculated.

Why the u-turn? No 10 says the concession is to ensure the Higher and Research Bill, key university legislation, can pass due to a Lords amendment urging the government not to count students as “long-term migrants” for “public policy purposes”.

But it will also be a factor in May’s manifesto pledge (and continuation of Cameron’s promise) to cut immigration to the “tens of thousands”. Until today, ministers had been unclear about whether this would be in the manifesto.

Now her u-turn on student figures is being seized upon by opposition parties as “massaging” the migration figures to meet her target. An accusation for which May only has herself, and her steadfast politicising of immigration, to blame.

Anoosh Chakelian is senior writer at the New Statesman.

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