Labour hopes to defeat Caroline Lucas after dramatic local by-election win in Brighton

The party celebrates after winning a seat off the Greens in one of the safest wards in Lucas's constituency.

There was a dramatic local by-election result in Brighton last night, where Labour won a seat off the Greens in the Hanover and Elm Grove Ward, one of the safest in Caroline Lucas's constituency. The party's Emma Daniel took the seat by just 38 votes (1,396 to 1,358) but this represented a huge swing of 11.7% since 2011.

It would be a mistake to read much into the result, a reflection of local discontent with the Green council, which Lucas herself has protested against in response to pay cuts. But it is a reminder that there is no guarantee she will keep her seat in 2015. Lucas currently has a majority of 1,252 (2.4%), with Labour, which held the constituency between 1997 and 2010, in second place. 

Brighton Pavilion is one of Labour's 106 target seats (the 19th most marginal on the list) and with a hung parliament looking increasingly likely, the party has no intention of giving her a free run.

Caroline Lucas became the first Green MP when she won Brighton Pavilion at the 2010 general election.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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Here's something the political class has completely missed about Brexit

As Hillary Clinton could tell them, arguments about trade have a long, long afterlife. 

I frequently hear the same thing at Westminster, regardless of whether or not the person in question voted to leave the European Union or not: that, after March 2019, Brexit will be “over”.

It’s true that on 30 March 2019, the United Kingdom will leave the EU whether the government has reached a deal with the EU27 on its future relationship or not. But as a political issue, Brexit will never be over, regardless of whether it is seen as a success or a failure.

You don’t need to have a crystal ball to know this, you just need to have read a history book, or, failing that, paid any attention to current affairs. The Democratic primaries and presidential election of 2016 hinged, at least in part, on the consequences of the North American Free Trade Association (Nafta). Hillary Clinton defeated a primary opponent, Bernie Sanders, who opposed the deal, and lost to Donald Trump, who also opposed the measure.

Negotiations on Nafta began in 1990 and the agreement was fully ratified by 1993. Economists generally agree that it has, overall, benefited the nations that participate in it. Yet it was still contentious enough to move at least some votes in a presidential election 26 years later.

Even if Brexit turns out to be a tremendous success, which feels like a bold call at this point, not everyone will experience it as one. (A good example of this is the collapse in the value of the pound after Britain’s Leave vote. It has been great news for manufacturers, domestic tourist destinations and businesses who sell to the European Union. It has been bad news for domestic households and businesses who buy from the European Union.)

Bluntly, even a successful Brexit is going to create some losers and an unsuccessful one will create many more. The arguments over it, and the political fissure it creates, will not end on 30 March 2019 or anything like it. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to domestic and global politics.