The Labour EU referendum rebels: the full list

The six Labour MPs who voted in favour of Tory MP James Wharton's EU referendum bill.

Not one MP dared to vote against Tory MP James Wharton's EU referendum bill at its second reading today, with 304 voting in favour. But while most Labour MPs followed their leader's advice to abstain, there were six who backed the bill in an unusual alliance of the party's old left and old right. They were:

Roger Godsiff

Kate Hoey

Kelvin Hopkins

Dennis Skinner

Graham Stringer 

Gisela Stuart

This is notably fewer than the number (15) who support the Labour for a Referendum campaign, with many put off by what they see as the excessive partisanship of the Tories. 

Having avoided voting against a referendum, the key question now for Miliband is whether he will either table or support an amendment calling for a pre-2015 vote. An increasing number of Labour MPs are of the view that the party should use this device to split the Tories (Cameron has promised a vote in 2017 following a renegotiation) and to avoid the charge that it is denying the people a say. In a significant intervention yesterday, shadow work and pensions minister Ian Austin broke ranks to call for a referendum at the same time as next year's European elections. Whether or not Miliband has the chutzpah to adopt this strategy, it is significant that he has not ruled it out. 

Dennis Skinner in full flow.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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Why Theresa May can't end speculation of an early general election

Both Conservative and Labour MPs regard a contest next year as the solution to their problems. 

One of Theresa May’s first acts as a Conservative leadership candidate was to rule out an early general election. After a tumultuous 2015 contest and the EU referendum, her view was that the country required a period of stability (a view shared by voters). Many newly-elected Tory MPs, fearful of a Brexit-inspired Ukip or Liberal Democrat surge, supported her on this condition.

After entering Downing Street, May reaffirmed her stance. “The Prime Minister could not have been clearer,” a senior source told me. “There won’t be an early election.” Maintaining this pledge is an important part of May’s straight-talking image.

But though No.10 has wisely avoided publicly contemplating an election (unlike Gordon Brown), the question refuses to die. The Conservatives have a majority of just 12 - the smallest of any single-party government since 1974 - and, as David Cameron found, legislative defeats almost inevitably follow. May’s vow to lift the ban on new grammar schools looks to many like an unachievable task. Former education secretary Nicky Morgan and former business minister Anna Soubry are among the Tories leading the charge against the measure (which did not feature in the 2015 Conservative manifesto).  

To this problem, an early election appears to be the solution. The Tories retain a substantial opinion poll lead over Labour, the most divided opposition in recent history. An election victory would give May the mandate for new policies that she presently lacks.

“I don’t believe Theresa May wishes to hold an early election which there is evidence that the country doesn’t want and which, given the current state of the Labour Party, might be seen as opportunistic,” Nigel Lawson told today’s Times“If, however, the government were to find that it couldn’t get its legislation through the House of Commons, then a wholly new situation would arise.”

It is not only Conservatives who are keeping the possibility of an early election alive. Many Labour MPs are pleading for one in the belief that it would end Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership. An early contest would also pre-empt the boundary changes planned in 2018, which are forecast to cost the party 23 seats.

For Corbyn, the possibility of an election is a vital means of disciplining MPs. Allies also hope that the failed revolt against his leadership, which Labour members blame for the party’s unpopularity, would allow him to remain leader even if defeated.

Unlike her predecessors, May faces the obstacle of the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act (under which the next election will be on 7 May 2020). Yet it is not an insurmountable one. The legislation can be suspended with the backing of two-thirds of MPs, or through a vote of no confidence in the government. Alternatively, the act could simply be repealed or amended. Labour and the Liberal Democrats, who have demanded an early election, would struggle to resist May if she called their bluff.

To many, it simply looks like an offer too good to refuse. Which is why, however hard May swats this fly, it will keep coming back. 

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.