After Watson: who will run Labour's general election campaign?

Douglas Alexander, who ran the 2010 campaign, is the frontrunner.

One immediate question posed by Tom Watson's resignation is that of who will run Labour's general election campaign. The frontrunner to fill the vacancy - Watson had been the party's campaign co-ordinator since October 2011 - is Douglas Alexander.

Alexander, currently shadow foreign secretary, ran the 2010 campaign and is admired by MPs for his intellect and strategic nous. As a figure from the "Blairite" wing of the party, who ran David Miliband's leadership campaign, his appointment would also reassure those concerned that party has drifted too far to the left since 2010.

Finally, it would offer Miliband a chance to demonstrate that it's not Len McCluskey who calls the shots. When I recently interviewed the Unite general secretary, Alexander was one of the shadow cabinet ministers he suggested should be ignored or sacked. McCluskey told me: Ed Miliband must spend most of his waking hours grappling with what lies before him. If he is brave enough to go for something radical, he’ll be the next prime minister. If he gets seduced by the Jim Murphys and the Douglas Alexanders, then the truth is that he’ll be defeated and he’ll be cast into the dustbin of history."

The other names circulating in Westminster are Sadiq Khan (who ran Miliband's leadership campaign), Harriet Harman and Michael Dugher, who has acted as Watson's effective deputy since he was appointed vice-chair in November 2012. He previously served as Gordon Brown’s spokesman and as PPS to Miliband, and is seen as one of the most impressive of the 2010 intake.

Shadow foreign secretary Douglas Alexander speaks at the Labour conference in 2011. Photograph: Getty Images.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

Photo: Getty
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Emmanuel Macron can win - but so can Marine Le Pen

Macron is the frontrunner, but he remains vulnerable to an upset. 

French presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron is campaigning in the sixth largest French city aka London today. He’s feeling buoyed by polls showing not only that he is consolidating his second place but that the voters who have put him there are increasingly comfortable in their choice

But he’ll also be getting nervous that those same polls show Marine Le Pen increasing her second round performance a little against both him and François Fillon, the troubled centre-right candidate. Her slight increase, coming off the back of riots after the brutal arrest of a 22-year-old black man and Macron’s critical comments about the French empire in Algeria is a reminder of two things: firstly the potential for domestic crisis or terror attack to hand Le Pen a late and decisive advantage.  Secondly that Macron has not been doing politics all that long and the chance of a late implosion on his part cannot be ruled out either.

That many of his voters are former supporters of either Fillon or the Socialist Party “on holiday” means that he is vulnerable should Fillon discover a sense of shame – highly unlikely but not impossible either – and quit in favour of a centre-right candidate not mired in scandal. And if Benoît Hamon does a deal with Jean-Luc Mélenchon – slightly more likely that Fillon developing a sense of shame but still unlikely – then he could be shut out of the second round entirely.

What does that all mean? As far as Britain is concerned, a Macron or Fillon presidency means the same thing: a French government that will not be keen on an easy exit for the UK and one that is considerably less anti-Russian than François Hollande’s. But the real disruption may be in the PR battle as far as who gets the blame if Theresa May muffs Brexit is concerned.

As I’ve written before, the PM doesn’t like to feed the beast as far as the British news cycle and the press is concerned. She hasn’t cultivated many friends in the press and much of the traditional rightwing echo chamber, from the press to big business, is hostile to her. While Labour is led from its leftmost flank, that doesn’t much matter. But if in the blame game for Brexit, May is facing against an attractive, international centrist who shares much of the prejudices of May’s British critics, the hope that the blame for a bad deal will be placed solely on the shoulders of the EU27 may turn out to be a thin hope indeed.

Implausible? Don’t forget that people already think that Germany is led by a tough operator who gets what she wants, and think less of David Cameron for being regularly outmanoeuvered by her – at least, that’s how they see it. Don’t rule out difficulties for May if she is seen to be victim to the same thing from a resurgent France.

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to British politics.