Why Labour has not "surrendered" on public spending

Contrary to what conservatives suggest, Balls hasn't capitulated to Osborne. He supports stimulus now and investment after 2015.

Daniel Finkelstein is the latest fiscal conservative to hail Labour's apparent Damascene conversion to austerity. In today's Times he writes of Ed Balls's alleged "intellectual surrender", "the argument he once boldly made, that deficits don’t matter, has gone". 

Balls's speech last week was a significant moment. Not only did he reaffirm that Labour would have to keep most or all of the coalition's spending cuts, he stated that it would have to make its own (and suggested some too). But Finkelstein is wrong to present this as an epoch-defining capitulation to compare with 1976. 

To begin with, Balls's support for stimulus now remains unwavering. Under the political cover of the IMF, he called for the coalition to bring forward capital spending increases from 2015, "financed by a temporary rise in borrowing", in order to promote growth. Contrary to what Finkelstein suggests (recalling Jim Callaghan's famous words), he still believes that you can "spend your way out of recession". More borrowing, more spending remains the Keynesian remedy  prescribed by Balls. The consistent error of the right has been to equate support for stimulus with support for a larger state. As Balls has always acknowledged, a stimulus is, by definition, temporary. In the words of his hero Keynes, "The boom, not the slump, is the right time for austerity at the Treasury." The true intellectual surrender would be for Labour to endorse Osborne's strategy of piling cuts on cuts, a path it has rightly rejected. 

But Finkelstein also overstates the extent to which Labour has committed itself to austerity after 2015. For Balls, Osborne's spending limits are a "starting point", not a blueprint. With growth of just 1.1 per cent since 2010 (compared to 2.9 per cent in Germany and 4.9 per cent in the US), he has adopted the prudent stance of preparing for the worst. But should growth surprise on the upside, he will be able to raise the baseline.

Nothing in Balls's speech precluded the possibility of Labour spending significantly more once a genuine recovery is underway. After all, the surge in expenditure under the last government (an average annual increase of 3.4 per cent) only came after Gordon Brown had stuck to the Tories' "eye-wateringly tight" spending limits. In the case of capital spending, Balls has already hinted that Labour will pledge to invest more than Osborne. As he said, "And for the future, we need to invest in the homes, transport and infrastructure Britain needs and ensure a recovery made by the many. Of course, here too we will only set our plans for investing in Britain’s future in the light of the economic circumstances at the time, and the needs of economic growth". 

Last week was not an "intellectual surrender"; it was an attempt to give Labour the political cover to be radical. 

George Osborne and Ed Balls attend the State Opening of Parliament on 8 May, 2013 in London. Photograph: Getty Images.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

Photo: Getty
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Theresa May is paying the price for mismanaging Boris Johnson

The Foreign Secretary's bruised ego may end up destroying Theresa May. 

And to think that Theresa May scheduled her big speech for this Friday to make sure that Conservative party conference wouldn’t be dominated by the matter of Brexit. Now, thanks to Boris Johnson, it won’t just be her conference, but Labour’s, which is overshadowed by Brexit in general and Tory in-fighting in particular. (One imagines that the Labour leadership will find a way to cope somehow.)

May is paying the price for mismanaging Johnson during her period of political hegemony after she became leader. After he was betrayed by Michael Gove and lacking any particular faction in the parliamentary party, she brought him back from the brink of political death by making him Foreign Secretary, but also used her strength and his weakness to shrink his empire.

The Foreign Office had its responsibility for negotiating Brexit hived off to the newly-created Department for Exiting the European Union (Dexeu) and for navigating post-Brexit trade deals to the Department of International Trade. Johnson was given control of one of the great offices of state, but with no responsibility at all for the greatest foreign policy challenge since the Second World War.

Adding to his discomfort, the new Foreign Secretary was regularly the subject of jokes from the Prime Minister and cabinet colleagues. May likened him to a dog that had to be put down. Philip Hammond quipped about him during his joke-fuelled 2017 Budget. All of which gave Johnson’s allies the impression that Johnson-hunting was a licensed sport as far as Downing Street was concerned. He was then shut out of the election campaign and has continued to be a marginalised figure even as the disappointing election result forced May to involve the wider cabinet in policymaking.

His sense of exclusion from the discussions around May’s Florence speech only added to his sense of isolation. May forgot that if you aren’t going to kill, don’t wound: now, thanks to her lost majority, she can’t afford to put any of the Brexiteers out in the cold, and Johnson is once again where he wants to be: centre-stage. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to domestic and global politics.