Why the economic liberalism of the young might not doom the left

If there is a glimmer of hope, it is that it is the free market model embraced by the young is failing them. They could be won round.

For some, the fact that Nigel Farage’s UKIP averaged 26 per cent in the recent local council elections signifies the approaching end of the three-party system and its replacement with a multiparty model along continental lines.

In this version of events, the success of UKIP is explained in the following terms: the public are 'sick and tired' of corrupt politicians who have 'never done a real day’s work'. Consequently, they are ready to throw the gates of Westminster open to a man who 'says what the public are really thinking in a no-nonsense fashion'. 

There are several problems with this analysis.

Firstly, UKIP’s recent electoral feat is unlikely to be repeated at the general election. Putting to one side the fact that projections of UKIP’s potential success in 2015 are based on assumptions the party will do well in places like Scotland (oh really?), this misconception also rests on the idea that people vote the same way in council elections as they do in general elections. They don’t.

The public may respond to an anti-politics figure like Farage when the stakes aren’t particularly high, but when it comes to the pinch they don’t generally want the pub bore and know-it-all sitting in 10 Downing Street with a direct line to the President of the United States. Today everyone seems to have forgotten that UKIP came third in the 2004 European elections under the leadership of another charismatic chancer only to flounder soon after, achieving just 2.3 per cent of the vote at the general election the following year.

Taking the longer view there is another, more straightforward reason not to view UKIP as a threat beyond 2015: Farage’s party represents the last gasp of genuinely reactionary England. While striking a chord with voters on immigration and Europe, on social issues UKIP is wildly at odds with several generations of younger voters. To paraphrase William F. Buckley, the party is attempting to stand athwart history yelling 'stop'.

The problem for the left is that while it might be reasonable to expect UKIP to fade in the coming years (48 per cent of the party’s voters are over 60), at some point a politician of the right who is able to effectively combine enthusiasm for the unfettered free market with genuine social liberalism will emerge - a combination that, judging by public attitudes, could be prove much harder to counter.

Today, right across the board, young people are more tolerant of things like gay marriage, drugs and sex than older voters. They are also a lot less supportive of the welfare state and much more likely to subscribe to ideas associated with neo-liberalism than their older contemporaries.

According to the 2012 British Social Attitudes Survey (BSA), more than two-thirds of people born before 1939 consider the welfare state "one of Britain’s proudest achievements". The figure for those born after 1979, however, is less than a third.

Despite continued strong support for the National Health Service, the BSA survey showed an inexorable hardening of attitudes toward many traditional left-wing concerns. In 1991 over half (58 per cent) of Britons agreed that the government should spend more on benefits even if it resulted in higher taxes. Last year that figure was just 28 per cent. More than half also believed people would “stand on their own two feet” if benefits were less generous, while only 20 per cent disagreed. Going back to 1993 the responses were almost exactly the opposite.

For the left, the glimmer of hope (if I can put it that way) is that it is the very economic liberalism embraced by the young that is failing them, meaning there is at least a chance they can be won over to the opposing view. Today it takes a first time buyer saving half their annual income more than 10 years to put together a deposit for their first home, and in London that figure rises to 24 years. Young people are also much more likely than adults to be unemployed. In the last quarter of 2012, one in four young workers with five good GCSEs and 40 per cent of those with no qualifications were unemployed. Those who decide to go to university can expect to be saddled with debts that, in some instances, they may never pay off.

A politician who combines enthusiasm for the unfettered free market with genuine social liberalism sounds like a familiar theme, doesn’t it? Wasn’t David Cameron supposed to be just such a figure, a modern Conservative who was willing to embrace gay marriage, immigration and single parent families while pursuing right-wing economics?

He was supposed to be, yes; however, despite managing to get the equal marriage bill passed, it’s become abundantly clear just how little Cameron has failed to reform the Conservative Party, which looks longingly in the direction of Nigel Farage.

The old post-1989 cliché used to have it that it was the left that had won the culture war while the right had triumphed in the economic arena. Britain being a place where change generally occurs at a leisurely pace, it may be that we are simply waiting for the right politician to appear to drive home the message. Boris 2020, perhaps?

James Bloodworth is editor of Left Foot Forward

Boris Johnson talks to the press during the press conference to announce the future of the Olympic Stadium. Photograph: Getty Images.

James Bloodworth is editor of Left Foot Forward

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Theresa May "indifferent" towards Northern Ireland, says Alliance leader Naomi Long

The non-sectarian leader questioned whether the prime minister and James Brokenshire have the “sensitivity and neutrality” required to resolve the impasse at Stormont.

Theresa May’s decision to call an early election reflects her “indifference” towards the Northern Ireland peace process, according to Alliance Party leader Naomi Long, who has accused both the prime minister and her Northern Ireland secretary James Brokenshire of lacking the “sensitivity and neutrality” required to resolve the political impasse at Stormont.

In a wide-ranging interview with the New Statesman, Long – who is running to regain her former Belfast East seat from the DUP for her non-sectarian party in June – accused the Conservatives of “double messaging” over its commitment to Northern Ireland’s fragile devolution settlement. The future of power-sharing province remains in doubt as parties gear up for the province’s fourth election campaign in twelve months.

Asked whether she believed the prime minister – who has been roundly criticised at Stormont for her decision to go to the country early – truly cared about Northern Ireland, Long’s assessment was blunt. “We have had no sense at any time, even when she was home secretary, that she has any sensitivity towards the Northern Ireland process or any interest in engaging with it at all... It speaks volumes that, when she did her initial tour when she was prime minister, Northern Ireland was fairly low down on her list.”

The timing of the snap election has forced Brokenshire to extend the deadline for talks for a fourth time – until the end of June – which Long said was proof “Northern Ireland and its problems were not even considered” in the prime minister’s calculations. “I think that’s increasingly a trend we’ve seen with this government,” she said, arguing May’s narrow focus on Brexit and pursuing electoral gains in England had made progress “essentially almost impossible”.

“They really lack sensitivity – and appear to be tone deaf to the needs of Scotland and Northern Ireland,” she said. “They are increasingly driven by an English agenda in terms of what they want to do. That makes it very challenging for those of us who are trying to restore devolution, which is arguably in the worst position it’s been in [since the Assembly was suspended for four years] in 2003.”

The decisive three weeks of post-election talks will now take place in the weeks running up to Northern Ireland’s loyalist parade season in July, which Long said was “indicative of [May’s] indifference” and would make compromise “almost too big an ask for anyone”. “The gaps between parties are relatively small but the depth of mistrust is significant. If we have a very fractious election, then obviously that timing’s a major concern,” she said. “Those three weeks will be very intense for us all. But I never say never.”

But in a further sign that trust in Brokenshire’s ability to mediate a settlement among the Northern Irish parties is deteriorating, she added: “Unless we get devolution over the line by that deadline, I don’t think it can be credibly further extended without hitting James Brokenshire’s credibility. If you continue to draw lines in the sand and let people just walk over them then that credibility doesn’t really exist.”

The secretary of state, she said, “needs to think very carefully about what his next steps are going to be”, and suggested appointing an independent mediator could provide a solution to the current impasse given the criticism of Brokenshire’s handling of Troubles legacy issues and perceived partisan closeness to the DUP. “We’re in the bizarre situation where we meet a secretary of state who says he and his party are completely committed to devolution when they ran a campaign, in which he participated, with the slogan ‘Peace Process? Fleece Process!’ We’re getting double messages from the Conservatives on just how committed to devolution they actually are.”

Long, who this week refused to enter into an anti-Brexit electoral pact with Sinn Fein and the SDLP, also criticised the government’s push for a hard Brexit – a decision which she said had been taken with little heed for the potentially disastrous impact on Northern Ireland - and said the collapse of power-sharing at Stormont was ultimately a direct consequence of the destabilisation brought about by Brexit.

 Arguing that anything other than retaining current border arrangements and a special status for the province within the EU would “rewind the clock” to the days before the Good Friday agreement, she said: “Without a soft Brexit, our future becomes increasingly precarious and divided. You need as Prime Minister, if you’re going to be truly concerned about the whole of the UK, to acknowledge and reflect that both in terms of tone and policy. I don’t think we’ve seen that yet from Theresa May.”

She added that the government had no answers to the “really tough questions” on Ireland’s post-Brexit border. “This imaginary vision of a seamless, frictionless border where nobody is aware that it exists...for now that seems to me pie in the sky.”

However, despite Long attacking the government of lacking the “sensitivity and neutrality” to handle the situation in Northern Ireland effectively, she added that Labour under Jeremy Corbyn had similarly failed to inspire confidence.

“Corbyn has no more sensitivity to what’s going on in Northern Ireland at the moment than Theresa May,” she said, adding that his links to Sinn Fein and alleged support for IRA violence had made him “unpalatable” to much of the Northern Irish public. “He is trying to repackage that as him being in some sort of advance guard for the peace process, but I don’t think that’s the position from which he and John McDonnell were coming – and Northern Irish people know that was the case.” 

Patrick Maguire writes about politics and is the 2016 winner of the Anthony Howard Award.

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