The odds are still against Scottish independence, but every vote will count

The closer the contest is, the more likely radical changes to the devolution settlement become.

Polls of the Scottish electorate currently show a healthy lead for those arguing against independence. But even if public opinion doesn’t shift significantly in the months ahead, every vote will be crucial in determining Scotland’s constitutional future after the referendum.

With Holyrood about to go into recess, it’s clear that if the referendum were held tomorrow there would likely be a clear victory for those arguing for Scotland to remain in the UK. Once we get back from the summer break, there will be a year left for both sides to make their case.

For those of us keenly watching every detail of the debate, it was surprising to read the First Minister’s interview in last week’s New Statesman in which he declared: "This is the phoney war. This is not the campaign." To some extent, he’s right, and all sides expect some movement in public opinion in the months ahead.

Salmond’s optimism is born out of a number of factors. He believes that on-going austerity measures, particularly cuts in welfare spending, will push voters towards voting 'Yes'. He will also have an eye on the outlook for the 2015 general election and hope that next year’s Commonwealth Games in Glasgow may engender feelings of Scottish nationalism in the same way that last year’s Olympics enhanced pride in ‘Britishness’ among many voters.

The main reason to suggest some shifts in opinion though is what our polls highlight about the number of people who are still to make up their minds. 'Undecided' voters come in three categories: those who tell us they may not vote if there were a referendum tomorrow (25 per cent of adults in our latest poll from May, including 2 per cent who tell us they definitely will not vote), those who would vote but are undecided (7 per cent) and those who lean towards one side but tell us they may change their minds before polling day (12 per cent). Taken together, this represents over four in ten Scots whose vote remains up for grabs and who will become an increasingly important group as the referendum comes into clear view.

This said, at present the odds remain firmly stacked in favour of the No campaign. This is because, although there are significant numbers of undecided and uncommitted voters, there is nothing in our polling to suggest that they are currently leaning towards voting Yes in sufficient numbers to make a decisive difference to the overall result.

In fact, analysis of these groups provides more comfort to those in the No camp. Among those who tells us they are uncertain to vote in the referendum, one in five, 20 per cent, would vote Yes while half, 49 per cent, would vote No, suggesting that a campaign to encourage participation is more likely to be beneficial those in favour of Scotland remaining in the UK. Those who tell us that they are undecided or may change their minds are more evenly split, with 38 per cent leaning towards Yes and 43 per cent towards No. The remainder cannot be even gently swayed either way at the moment.

So, assuming undecided voters do not begin switching to Yes in significant numbers in the coming months, the debate may begin to switch from who will win the referendum to the margin of victory and what that means for Scotland’s constitutional future.

Our polling suggests that a majority of Scots want some form of constitutional change. For instance, our June 2012 survey showed 29 per cent in support of the status quo, while more than two-thirds of voters (68 per cent) supported either full independence (27 per cent) or the 'Devo-Plus' proposals for greater powers being devolved to the Scottish Parliament.

We do not yet know what will happen to Scotland’s constitutional position in the event of a No vote next year. But it is possible that more radical and significant changes become more likely in a closely contested vote. That’s why every vote will be significant and strongly fought for in the run up to the referendum.

First Minister of Scotland Alex Salmond launches a paper on the Scottish economy on May 21, 2013 in Falkirk. Photograph: Getty Images.

Mark Diffley is research director of Ipsos-MORI Scotland. He tweets as @markdiffley1.

Jeremy Corbyn in Crewe. Photo: Getty
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Is it too late to replace Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader before the general election?

Make no mistake, replacing the Labour leader now would terrify the Tories. 

Received wisdom states that Jeremy Corbyn’s position in the Labour party is guaranteed, at least for the next six weeks, until the general election on 8 June. However, this belief is in large part down to polls conducted earlier this year among the Labour membership, which showed continued support for him.

In light of the changing political landscape, and the looming General Election, these polls should be revisited. It is clear they offer enough cause for hope to Labour moderates who might be willing to take the risk of removing Corbyn before the country makes this decision for them.

If you listen to pollsters talk about their surveys, one of the most common refrains you'll hear is that the results are "a snapshot, not a prediction". During the peacetime years between elections, this claim is made for solid reasons. With an election years away, polls offer the public a risk-free method to register dissatisfaction or support for a political parties and politician without consequence.

Nowhere is this clearer than in the polls we’ve seen in the past week. In every poll conducted after May's announcement on an early election, there has been a rise in the Tory lead. Elections focus minds and the risk-free toying with another party is no more; the public now need to make a decision about who they'll vote for in a little over a month and this decision matters.

Back in March, just 35 per cent of Labour members thought it likely that Corbyn would lead Labour to victory at the next election - yet they still supported him (PDF). Many commentators and Labour moderates asked why. They couldn't understand why the members would support someone who was so clearly electoral kryptonite.

The reason is relatively straightforward. The election was still years off and Corbyn was doing, for the members, a vital job in repositioning Labour on the left. With an election so far away, it didn't matter how Labour were performing in the polls, it was risk-free to support Corbyn.

The early election changes all that and the question is no longer about whether another leader gives Labour a better chance of winning but whether another leader gives Labour a better chance at surviving.

In the last poll published on Labour members, a majority wanted Corbyn to either step down immediately (36%) or before the next election (14%). Just 44% wanted him to lead Labour into the next General Election. With May’s announcement of a vote on 8 June, Labour's existential crisis has been brought forward by three years and it is likely that 14% who thought Corbyn should step down before the next election would side with those who wanted Corbyn gone immediately rather than those who wanted him to fight on in 2020.

There is also an argument to be made that the 44% who wanted Jeremy to fight the next election assumed he would have three more years to grow into the role and turn Labour’s fortunes around and these members could easily be swayed from their support given the change in terms the early election brings about.

What's more, 68% of Labour members felt Corbyn should go if Labour lost the next election and this includes 42% of those who say they would definitely/probably vote for Jeremy at a future leadership election. Only the most hardcore Corbyn supporters still believe he has a chance of victory in a few weeks. So, faced with the prospect of Jeremy going in June, after a heavy defeat, or now - giving Labour a better chance - many would reluctantly go for the latter.  

So how can Jeremy be removed? There are three things that need to happen. Firstly, pick the right candidate. For a new leader to have any impact with the public, it has to be someone who is not associated with Corbyn. However, to win over the members, the candidate cannot be seen as an instigator in the coup last year.  It would also be wise to choose someone the public are at least partly familiar with. This is a narrow pool but there are MPs who meet this requirement and could get through a leadership election and limit Labour losses.  

Secondly, limit the selectorate to the members. There is no time to vet 10s or 100,000s of new voters and they are unlikely to be favourable to an Anyone-But-Corbyn candidate. Among current members, Corbyn can be defeated and that must be the battle on which any leadership election was fought.

Finally, remove the risk of a centrist takeover in Labour members' minds by committing to a further leadership election in six months' time. Make it clear that Jeremy Corbyn needs to go - but that this isn't the end for his supporters. Any new leader is just an interim measure, someone who can limit the losses and give Labour the chance to fight again. Position yourself like the football manager who comes in three matches before the end of the season, promising to save the club from relegation before handing over to someone more suited to their team.

Make no mistake, replacing the Labour leader now would terrify the Tories. Their attacks on Corbyn will be worthless and new leaders typically enjoy a honeymoon period which would come at the perfect time. There are risks, of course, but the greater risk is in allowing Corbyn to lead Labour to a defeat from which there may be no return.

Laurence Janta-Lipinski is a former pollster with YouGov and now a freelance political consultant. He tweets at @jantalipinski

 

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