A make or break moment for Egypt's President Morsi

The first anniversary of the president's inauguration is expected to spark nationwide protests. The grassroots campaign Tamarod aims to secure enough signatures to a vote-of-no-confidence petition to outweigh the 13 million votes that brought Morsi into p

Egypt is steeling itself in the run-up to nationwide protests against beleaguered President Mohamed Morsi on the first anniversary of his inauguration.

Sunday's demonstrations, which organisers claim will "make or break" the Muslim Brotherhood president, are spearheaded by a grassroots campaign Tamarod, meaning "rebel". It aims to secure enough signatures to a vote-of-no-confidence petition to outweigh the 13 million votes that brought Morsi into power.

Tamarod say they have already collected at least 18 million, and will present them to Morsi.

As tensions rise, rumours abound that the army may intervene, just one year after handing power to a civilian chief.  Defense Minster Abdel-Fattah Al-Sisi cryptically said Sunday that the military "stayed out of political matters" but has a duty to "prevent Egypt slipping into a dark tunnel."

Meanwhile the police, historically hostile to the Brotherhood, vowed to protect state institutions but not the group's headquarters, which have recently been targeted in firebomb attacks.

Tamarod spokesperson Eman El-Haghy tells the New Statesman confidently that they will call on the head of the Constituent Assembly to be interim president. "The president has dragged our country backwards… he has not fulfilled the revolution's goals."

Tamarod say political forces will choose a transitional president and technocratic government to draft a constitution before elections: a tough call for an opposition that critics say hasn't united around anything except dislike of the Brotherhood.

Nevertheless the mounting anger against Morsi is significant.

"I don't think it gets more serious than this," says Hisham Hellyer, Cairo-based non-resident fellow at the Brookings Institute.

"He doesn’t have even have a monopoly on the Islamist trend, the different [ultraconservative] Salafi parties are not deserting him but they are getting there. The more left-leaning Islamist parties are joining protests."

Certainly the non-Islamist faction who backed Morsi during elections - largely to block his rival, Mubarak-era minister Ahmed Shafiq - are now organising demonstrations.  The National Salvation Front, Egypt's largest opposition bloc, has meanwhile rejected any dialogue.

Protesters are demanding "bread, freedom and social justice," the same grievances they voiced during the revolution.

Egypt suffers from a flailing economy; bread, water and fuel crises; and a brutal police force which hasn't been held to account. Many say the recently-ratified Constitution was hastily drafted by an Islamist-dominated assembly.

Basic rights continue to be violated.

According to Human Rights Watch, bloggers and journalists are increasingly being prosecuted for "insulting" officials. State torture remains endemic; defamation and blasphemy prosecutions are increasing.

"The economy is not doing well," says Ahmed Galal, Director of Cairo-based Economic Research Forum.  "The budget deficit is growing, and there is sluggish economic growth at a time of growing unemployment."

Continued unrest and no political consensus means foreign investment has dried up, Galal adds. "Most of Egypt's economic problems would be resolved if a political settlement is reached." Something Morsi has yet to do.

Hellyer says the president also picked fights with institutions like the interior ministry and judiciary "without correct political support."

One embarrassing example was when the High Constitutional Court rejected the electoral law last month, meaning Egypt won't have a parliament until 2014, even though the president had already called elections.

Morsi himself faces direct judicial challenges: Shafiq is appealing the results of last year's presidential poll.

Even the Brotherhood admits expectations have not been met.

"The first year has been much more troublesome than we had expected," says Gehad El-Haddad, an advisor to the Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party, adding that the government's performance has not been "optimum".

State institutions, El-Haddad says, are the problem. "They are unprofessional and corrupt and actually challenge the president's initiatives."

El-Haddad also maintains that the media distort Morsi's record. Despite the hype, he believes there isn't widespread demand for Morsi's resignation.

Hellyer says Sunday's protests, if successful, are dangerous. "The propensity for violence would increase. It's very bad for the story for Egyptian democracy, as it says that government can be thrown out after a year."

"The only way Morsi leaves is by the military forcing him out, which involves violence and social disorder." Clashes have already broken out in several governorates in the lead up.

Activists maintain they will keep their protests peaceful with marches "with people holding whistles and red cards to signify that it is game over," El-Haghy explains. There will also be protests outside Egyptian embassies in cities around the world - including New York and London.

"We told the world that 30 June, the day we gave him our vote, will be the day we withdraw our confidence."

Whether Morsi will exit the pitch early remains to be seen. 

A protest artist paints Tamarod or "Rebel" graffiti in downtown Cairo ahead of anniversary demos against the president. Photograph: Gregg Carlstrom
Photo: Getty
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The Brexiteers have lost battles but they are still set to win the war

The prospect of the UK avoiding Brexit, or even a “hard” version, remains doubtful. 

Before the general election, the Brexiteers would boast that everything had gone their way. Parliament had voted to trigger Article 50 by a majority of 372. The Treasury-forecast recession hadn't occurred. And polls showed the public backing Brexit by a comfortable margin

But since the Conservatives' electoral humbling, the Leavers have been forced to retreat on multiple fronts. After promising in May that the dispute over the timetable for the Brexit talks would be "the fight of the summer", David Davis capitulated on the first day.

The UK will be forced to settle matters such as EU citizens' rights, the Irish border and the divorce bill before discussions begin on a future relationship. Having previously insisted that a new trade deal could agreed by 29 March 2019 (Britain's scheduled departure date), the Brexiteers have now conceded that this is, in Liam Fox's words, "optimistic" (translation: deluded). 

That means the transitional arrangement the Leavers once resisted is now regarded as inevitable. After the eradication of the Conservatives' majority, the insistence that "no deal is better than a bad deal" is no longer credible. No deal would mean the immediate return of a hard Northern Irish border (to the consternation of the Tories' partners the DUP) and, in a hung parliament, there are no longer the votes required to pursue a radical deregulatory, free market agenda (for the purpose of undercutting the EU). As importantly for the Conservatives, an apocalyptic exit could pave the way for a Jeremy Corbyn premiership (a figure they previously regarded as irretrievably doomed). 

Philip Hammond, emboldened by the humiliation of the Prime Minister who planned to sack him, has today outlined an alternative. After formally departing the EU in 2019, Britain will continue to abide by the rules of the single market and the customs union: the acceptance of free movement, European legal supremacy, continued budget contributions and a prohibition on independent trade deals. Faced with the obstacles described above, even hard Brexiteers such as Liam Fox and Michael Gove have recognised that the game is up.

But though they have lost battles, the Leavers are still set to win the war. There is no parliamentary majority for a second referendum (with the pro-Remain Liberal Democrats still enfeebled), Hammond has conceded that any transitional arrangement would end by June 2022 (the scheduled date of the next election) and most MPs are prepared to accept single market withdrawal. The prospect of Britain avoiding Brexit, or even a "hard" version, remains doubtful. 

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.