How Osborne's shares for rights scheme has flopped

Only six companies have enquired about the Chancellor's plan to allow workers to give up employment rights in return for shares.

The centrepiece of George Osborne's speech to last year's Conservative conference was his plan for employees to give up their rights in return for acquiring shares in their companies. While losing rights and protections, including unfair dismissal, statutory redundancy pay and the right to request flexible working, they would gain shares worth between £2,000 and £50,000.

The Chancellor said:

This idea is particularly suited to new businesses starting up; and small and medium sized firms. It's a voluntary three way deal. You the company: give your employees shares in the business. You the employee: replace your old rights of unfair dismissal and redundancy with new rights of ownership. And what will the Government do? We'll charge no capital gains tax at all on the profit you make on your shares. Zero percent capital gains tax for these new employee-owners. Let shares and become owners of the company you work for. Owners, workers, and the taxman, all in it together. Workers of the world unite.

The policy was attacked from all sides in parliament, with former Tory Scottish secretary Lord Forsyth describing it as "ill-thought through, confused and muddled", Lord O'Donnell, the former head of the civil service, declaring, "In the old days the price of slavery was 20 or 30 pieces of silver – is it now £2,000?" and crossbencher Lord Billamora memorably warning, "This is not just a dogs's breakfast, this is a mad dog's breakfast". Andrew Adonis noted that "The idea that depriving employees of these basic rights is somehow going to boost growth is not supported by a single employer I have met, let alone [an] employee".

It turns out that the government is having trouble finding any too. With just two months to go until the scheme launches, today's FT reports that only six companies have enquired about it.  The Treasury had expected thousands of employers to sign up, pencilling in lost capital gains tax receipts of £135m in the three years to 2017/18.

Responding for Labour, Chuka Umunna said: "It was a ridiculous policy that had the support of very few people indeed. It was condemned by business and by people on all sides and it should be dumped. I am not at all surprised that it has attracted little interest from businesses who on the whole do not want to rob their employees of their fundamental rights at work."

The government rather optimistically remarked that its "approximate estimate" is that "around 6,000 companies" could choose to use the scheme, adding that "it could be more, it could be less."

In the absence of a 1,000 per cent surge in interest in the next two months, it looks like it will be less.

A member of the PCS union wears a George Osborne face mask at a demonstration on Whitehall on June 27, 2013 in London. Photograph: Getty Images.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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Why it's far too early to declare Ukip dead

The party could yet thrive if Brexit disappoints those who voted Leave.

"Nothing except a battle lost can be half as melancholy as a battle won," wrote the Duke of Wellington after Waterloo. Ukip can testify to this. Since achieving its founding aim - a British vote to leave the EU - the party has descended into a rolling crisis.

Theresa May's vow to pursue Brexit, and to achieve control of immigration, robbed Ukip of its political distinctiveness. But the party's greatest enemy has been itself. Its leader Paul Nuttall did not merely lose the Stoke by-election (despite the city recording the highest Leave vote), he self-destructed in the process. Contrary to his assertions, Nuttall did not achieve a PhD, was never a professional footballer and did not lose "close personal friends" at Hillsborough. Ukip's deputy Peter Whittle pleaded last weekend that voters needed more time to get to know Nuttall. No, the problem was that they got to know him all too well. A mere three months after becoming leader, Nuttall has endured a level of mockery from which far stronger men would struggle to recover (and he may soon be relieved of the task).

Since then, Ukip's millionaire sugar daddy Arron Banks has threatened to leave the party unless he is made chairman and Nigel Farage is awarded a new role (seemingly that of de facto leader). For good measure, Farage (a man who has failed seven times to enter parliament) has demanded that Ukip's only MP Douglas Carswell is expelled for the crime of failing to aid his knighthood bid. Not wanting to be outdone, Banks has vowed to stand against Carswell at the next election if the dissenter is not purged. Any suggestion that the party's bloodlust was sated by the flooring of Steve Woolfe and Diane James's 18-day leadership has been entirely dispelled.

For all this, it is too early to pronounce Ukip's death (as many have). Despite May's ascension and its myriad woes, it has maintained an average poll rating of 12 per cent this year. This is far from its 2014 zenith, when it polled as high as 25 per cent, but also far from irrelevancy. Incapable of winning Labour seats itself, Ukip could yet gift them to the Conservatives by attracting anti-Tory, anti-Corbyn voters (in marginals, the margins matter).

Though Theresa May appears invulnerable, Brexit could provide fertile political territory for Ukip. Those who voted Leave in the hope of a radical reduction in immigration will likely be dismayed if only a moderate fall results. Cabinet ministers who boasted during the referendum of their desire to reduce immigration have already been forced to concede that newcomers will be required to fill vacancies for years to come. Ukip will be the natural vehicle for those aggrieved by Brexit "betrayal". Some Leave voters are already dismayed by the slowness of the process (questioning why withdrawal wasn't triggered immediately) and will revolt at the "transitional period" and budget contributions now regarded as inevitable.

The declarations of Ukip's death by both conservatives and liberals have all the hallmarks of wishful thinking. Even if the party collapses in its present form, something comparable to it would emerge. Indeed, the complacency of its opponents could provide the very conditions it needs to thrive.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.