How to know who's heading up in the shadow cabinet reshuffle

Have they passed the Question Time test?

It is an open secret in Westminster that Ed Miliband will hold a shadow cabinet reshuffle at some point before the Labour conference, so who is line for promotion? One Labour MP told me that a good rule of thumb is to look at those who have recently appeared on Question Time (often for the first time), regarded as a useful test of their media abilities. 

Recent Labour panellists have included shadow Northern Ireland secretary Vernon Coaker (23 May), shadow immigration ministers Chris Bryant (16 May) and shadow climate change minister Luciana Berger (25 April), all of whom other sources have told me are likely to be promoted in the reshuffle. Stella Creasy (currently shadow minister for crime prevention), who has already appeared several times on the programme, is another expected to move up the ranks. 

MPs also suggest that Rachel Reeves, currently on maternity leave, is likely to shadow "a major spending department" when she returns, with Chris Leslie, who has acted as Ed Balls's deputy in her absence, possibly replacing her as shadow chief secretary to the Treasury. 

Incidentally, a senior Labour figure told me last week that Alistair Darling would almost certainly have to return to the frontline after "saving the Union" next year (Darling is chair of the Better Together campaign) but not as shadow chancellor (rightly so, in my view; Ed Balls's performance yesterday showed why he is such an asset for Labour). The source suggested he could take on the role of party chair, one of the posts currently held by Harriet Harman. Here's what Darling had to say when recently asked by Andrew Neil on The Sunday Politics if he would "come and help the battle to give the Labour Party economic credibility".

I am very confident that my colleagues, Ed Miliband, Ed Balls, are very aware of what they have to do and they will do it. Because we owe it to the people that support us and the people we’ve yet to win over to put forward an argument that is going to convince people. Heavens, you know, you rightly said this government is in one terrible mess at the moment as far as the economy is concerned. They’re way off track, none of their plans are stacking up, they’re losing credibility. We need to have a compelling alternative. There is one, and I will be helping my colleagues do that. But at the moment, for the next 18 months, you know where I am.

To translate, he's ruling nothing out. 

Luciana Berger, currently shadow climate change minister, is one of those in line for promotion.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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Could tactical voting stop Brexit?

Could tactical votes soften the Brexit blow?

Could tactical voting save Britain from the hardest of exits from the European Union?

That's the hope of Open Britain, which has unveiled a list of 20 seats held by supporters of a hard Brexit (19 Conservatives and one Labour MP, Kate Hoey) in areas that either split evenly in the referendum or backed a Remain vote, and a list of 20 seats held by pro-Europeans: among them Labour MPs Pat McFadden and Liz Kendall, Liberal Democrat MPs Nick Clegg and Tom Brake, and Caroline Lucas, the Greens' sole MP. (Read the full list here.)

"Remain group seeks to oust pro-Brexit MPs" is the Guardian's splash. The intiative has received the thumbs up from Peter Mandelson on Newsnight and Tony Blair in the Guardian. But will it work?

A quick look at the seats in question shows the challenge for anyone hoping for a pro-European front to frustrate Brexit. Theresa Villiers has a majority of more than 7,000 over Labour: and if you're a voter in Chipping Barnet who backed a Remain vote because you were worried about your house price, is Jeremy Corbyn really the answer to your problems? (That said, it's worth noting that thanks to the scale of the 2015 defeat, Chipping Barnet is one of the seats Labour would have to win to get a majority in the House of Commons.)

Or take, say, Kate Hoey in Vauxhall, one of the few people in Labour who can claim to be a unifying figure these days. Yes, she is deeply unpopular in her local party who have mounted several attempts to remove her. Yes, Vauxhall voted heavily to Remain. But - as Jessica Elgot finds in her profile for the Guardian- it also has a large amount of social housing and has more children living in poverty than all but 51 other seats in the House of Commons. There are a great number of people who believe their own interests are better served by sending a Labour MP to Westminster rather than refighting the referendum.

That's a reminder of three things: the first is that the stereotype of the Remain vote as people straight out of the Boden catalogue misses a number of things. The second is that for many people, Brexit will take a back seat.

But the big problem is that you can't make an anti-Brexit - which, by necessity, is essentially an anti-Conservative - alliance work if the main anti-Conservative party is so weak and unattractive to most people. "Voting pro-European" may give Labour's Corbynsceptics a way to advocate a vote for Labour that doesn't endorse Jeremy Corbyn. That doesn't mean it will succeed in stopping Brexit.

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to British politics.

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