How Cameron and Clegg could reach a deal on cutting pensioner benefits

The coalition could pledge to means-test benefits from April 2015 and promise to increase them the previous year to ensure no one is left out of pocket.

With both Labour and the Lib Dems no longer committed to preserving universal benefits for pensioners, what's preventing the Tories executing their own U-turn? The answer is David Cameron's 2010 "read my lips" pledge to protect them (ironically made under pressure from Labour), which was subsequently included in the Coalition Agreement. After seeing the damage inflicted on the Lib Dems by their volte face over tuition fees, Cameron is determined to avoid anything that could provoke claims of betrayal, not least due to the renowned power of the grey vote (the demographic among which UKIP is performing strongest). 

But as Nick Clegg pointed out on The Andrew Marr Show yesterday, the coalition's pledge to "protect key benefits for older people such as the winter fuel allowance, free TV licences, free bus travel, and free eye tests and prescriptions" only applies up to May 2015, while the current Spending Review is concerned with the 2015-16 spending period. The difficulty for Cameron is that six weeks of the period fall before the next general election, meaning any decision to means-test them would technically breach his pledge. As a result, Tory hopes of further welfare cuts, which would allow the government to limit cuts to areas such as policing and defence, have evaporated. As Clegg again stated yesterday, he is only prepared to consider additional cuts (such as the abolition of housing benefit for 25-year-olds and the limiting of child benefit to two children) if the coalition "starts at the top" by curbing benefits for the wealthy. In response, the Tories reaffirmed Cameron's 2010 pledge: "David Cameron promised to protect the benefits for pensioners who've worked hard and done the right thing - and we've kept that promise. Conservatives want to do more to fix the welfare system so that it works for the hard-working people who pay for it."

But with the Treasury still only a third of the way to meeting its Spending Review target of £11.5bn cuts (a total that will be far harder to reach with welfare cuts off the table), it's worth noting one way the coalition could resolve this conundrum. The government could announce that one or more of the benefits will be means-tested from April 2015 and increase payments to pensioners the previous year to ensure no one is left out of pocket. While administratively complex, this would offer the coalition a chance to break the deadlock on welfare. As Philip Hammond, Vince Cable and others battle to protect their departments from the full force of Osborne's axe, it's exactly the kind of imaginative compromise both sides might be tempted to explore. 

Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg makes a speech at the G8 Open for Growth - Trade, Tax and Transparency conference at Lancaster House in London. Photograph: Getty Images.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

Ukip's Nigel Farage and Paul Nuttall. Photo: Getty
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Is the general election 2017 the end of Ukip?

Ukip led the way to Brexit, but now the party is on less than 10 per cent in the polls. 

Ukip could be finished. Ukip has only ever had two MPs, but it held an outside influence on politics: without it, we’d probably never have had the EU referendum. But Brexit has turned Ukip into a single-issue party without an issue. Ukip’s sole remaining MP, Douglas Carswell, left the party in March 2017, and told Sky News’ Adam Boulton that there was “no point” to the party anymore. 

Not everyone in Ukip has given up, though: Nigel Farage told Peston on Sunday that Ukip “will survive”, and current leader Paul Nuttall will be contesting a seat this year. But Ukip is standing in fewer constituencies than last time thanks to a shortage of both money and people. Who benefits if Ukip is finished? It’s likely to be the Tories. 

Is Ukip finished? 

What are Ukip's poll ratings?

Ukip’s poll ratings peaked in June 2016 at 16 per cent. Since the leave campaign’s success, that has steadily declined so that Ukip is going into the 2017 general election on 4 per cent, according to the latest polls. If the polls can be trusted, that’s a serious collapse.

Can Ukip get anymore MPs?

In the 2015 general election Ukip contested nearly every seat and got 13 per cent of the vote, making it the third biggest party (although is only returned one MP). Now Ukip is reportedly struggling to find candidates and could stand in as few as 100 seats. Ukip leader Paul Nuttall will stand in Boston and Skegness, but both ex-leader Nigel Farage and donor Arron Banks have ruled themselves out of running this time.

How many members does Ukip have?

Ukip’s membership declined from 45,994 at the 2015 general election to 39,000 in 2016. That’s a worrying sign for any political party, which relies on grassroots memberships to put in the campaigning legwork.

What does Ukip's decline mean for Labour and the Conservatives? 

The rise of Ukip took votes from both the Conservatives and Labour, with a nationalist message that appealed to disaffected voters from both right and left. But the decline of Ukip only seems to be helping the Conservatives. Stephen Bush has written about how in Wales voting Ukip seems to have been a gateway drug for traditional Labour voters who are now backing the mainstream right; so the voters Ukip took from the Conservatives are reverting to the Conservatives, and the ones they took from Labour are transferring to the Conservatives too.

Ukip might be finished as an electoral force, but its influence on the rest of British politics will be felt for many years yet. 

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